Daily News Brief

January 17, 2024

Top of the Agenda

In speeches yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan both said (Axios) that in light of the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, a previously floated proposal for Saudi-Israeli normalization is still possible (Reuters) if there is a pathway to the creation of a Palestinian state. Sullivan laid out four principles for U.S. thinking regarding the postwar status quo in the region, including that the Gaza Strip is not used for attacks on Israel, there is peace between Israel and Arab countries in the region, there is a state for Palestinians, and that Israel receives security assurances. 

Also speaking at Davos, Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher al-Khasawneh said yesterday that Jordan believes (Reuters) peace with Israel is a strategic choice while echoing calls for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israeli President Isaac Herzog was expected to speak at the forum today and call for increased pressure (Bloomberg) on Hamas to release hostages it still holds after its October 7 attacks.

Analysis

“The reconstruction of Gaza could become a step along the road to a final settlement [about the enclave’s future], with parties such as Gulf states, the European Union, and the World Bank ready to take part in ways they are not today,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian official, writes for Foreign Affairs. 

“[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's government includes ultranationalists who oppose even small overtures to the Palestinians. It's extremely unlikely they'd agree to a path toward a future Palestinian state,” Axios’s Barak Ravid writes.

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

Seoul imposed sanctions (Yonhap) on eleven ships and five individuals it said were part of illegal efforts to fund North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. South Korean and Japanese nuclear envoys met in Seoul (Yonhap) today ahead of trilateral talks with the United States tomorrow. North Korea’s foreign minister, meanwhile, traveled to Moscow this week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

U.S./Indonesia/Malaysia: Two Malaysians who are jailed at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba pleaded guilty (NYT) yesterday to participating in a 2002 bombing in Bali, Indonesia, that killed more than two hundred people. Their pleas come as U.S. military prosecutors have been seeking deals to resolve longtime cases against former CIA prisoners.

This article by CFR’s Jonathan Masters unpacks the last twenty years of Guantánamo Bay.

South and Central Asia

Iranian strikes yesterday targeted (AFP, Dawn) two strongholds of the Jaish al-Adl militant group in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news service reported. Islamabad will recall its ambassador from Tehran and suspend all high-level bilateral visits after an “unprovoked violation” of its airspace that killed two children, Pakistan’s foreign office said today.

Canada/India: Following a diplomatic dispute over the murder of a Sikh activist in Canada last year, the number of student permits that Canada issued to Indian students fell as India had ejected the diplomats who would process the permits, Canada’s immigration minister told Reuters. The number of Indian students applying for the permits also fell and would be unlikely to rebound soon, he said.

Middle East and North Africa

In a rare diplomatic agreement, the plan allows humanitarian aid (WaPo) to reach civilians in the Gaza Strip and medicine to reach Israeli hostages being held by Palestinian militant group Hamas. At least one of two airplanes carrying aid supplies landed in Egypt today. Hamas is thought to still have more than one hundred hostages in captivity.

For Think Global Health, Mustafa Al-Bayati and Natasha Ross detail Gaza’s health crisis amid the war.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sudan’s foreign ministry said yesterday that the government froze its contact (Reuters) with mediators from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a group of East African countries that had previously sought to broker talks between the Sudanese government and paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Niger/Russia: At a bilateral meeting of defense officials yesterday, Niger and Russia agreed (Reuters) to develop military cooperation, Russia’s defense ministry said. After a military coup in Niger last year, its military junta kicked out French troops and cut security pacts with the European Union, leaving Western countries concerned about the potential for Russia to expand its foothold in the region. 

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo looks at Russia’s growing footprint in Africa.

Europe

President Emmanuel Macron said in a speech yesterday that his administration will aim to cut red tape (FT) for businesses, improve job training, crack down on screen time for children, and pilot mandatory school uniforms. These and other measures are part of what he called a civic and economic “rearmament” of France as Macron’s party aims to compete with the far-right National Rally.

Ukraine: In a shift from past aid appeals, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on donors to pledge new support to Kyiv at the World Economic Forum but did not ask (NYT) for weapons for a new battlefield offensive. Zelenksyy touted his peace formula to end the war, called for tougher sanctions on Russia, and told donors he needed their support “to build, to reconstruct, to restore our lives.”

This episode of the Why It Matters podcast explores the case for rebuilding Ukraine. 

Americas

Mexico recorded 29,675 intentional homicides (EFE) last year, a government secretariat said yesterday. The number is a 4.18 percent decrease from the previous year and down from the country’s all-time high of 34,690 homicides in 2019.

Haiti: Supporters of former rebel leader Guy Philippe staged demonstrations (AP) on Monday and Tuesday calling for Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation. Philippe led a 2004 coup against then President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and was repatriated to Haiti in November from the United States, where he had been jailed for nine years on a money laundering charge.

United States

The creator of generative artificial intelligence (AI) model ChatGPT is working with the Department of Defense to develop cybersecurity products, an OpenAI senior official told Bloomberg. The move reverses OpenAI’s previous stance that it would not provide its AI capabilities to militaries.

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