[The party is losing votes from groups that have formed their most
loyal supporters. ]
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THE DEMS SHOULD HEAR 2024 ALARM BELLS OVER BIDEN’S GAZA POLICY  
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Dr. James J. Zogby
January 16, 2024
Common Dreams
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_ The party is losing votes from groups that have formed their most
loyal supporters. _

Protesters block the entrance of the headquarters of the Democratic
National Committee during a demonstration on November 15, 2023, on
Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., Alex Wong/Getty Images

 

2024 may be the first election in which the issues involving
Palestinian rights may impact the outcome. Over the past several
decades, elections have been fought over a range of domestic and
foreign policy concerns—from civil rights and abortion to the wars
in Vietnam and Iraq. In most instances these were partisan “wedge”
issues—that is, issues that were used by one party against the
other. What is important to note about the growing concern for
Palestinian rights is that it has become a “wedge issue“ that is
dividing the Democratic Party.

Whether deliberate or not, Democrats made a fateful choice over the
past several decades. They abandoned the white working class in favor
of courting what has come to be known as “Obama voters.” They were
young voters, voters of color (Black, Latino, and Asian), and educated
women voters. The problem is that having lost a sizable percentage of
white working-class voters, Democrats can’t afford to lose the
substantial majorities of voters from the Obama coalition they need to
win national elections.

Recent polls, like one conducted in December by _The New York Times_,
show that young voters are deeply disappointed with President Joe
Biden’s handling of the war on Gaza. They demonstrate greater
solidarity with Palestinians than with Israelis and, in part,
motivated by their dissatisfaction, they appear less inclined to
support him in 2024 elections.

Betting on young and non-white voters will all drifting back to Biden
in November—since they won’t want to see Donald Trump return to
the White House—is demeaning to the feelings of these voters.

Given the ongoing deadly violence in Gaza and the start of the 2024
election year, this past week my Arab American Institute cosponsored a
Summit on Gaza together with the Rainbow PUSH Coalition, founded by my
friend, Rev. Jesse Jackson and other partners. In order to have a
detailed look at how voters were thinking about the war, we
commissioned a special nationwide poll of likely voters. We learned
four central lessons: Because of growing sympathy for Palestinians,
voters want American policy to be more balanced and less supportive of
Israel; because of the toll the bombings have taken on Palestinian
lives, voters want U.S. military aid to Israel to be restricted and
conditional; voters want members of Congress to support a cease-fire
and are less inclined to support candidates who oppose a cease-fire;
and finally, in almost every instance, the percentages of young voters
and non-white voters who support a more balanced Middle East policy,
conditioning aid to Israel, and a cease-fire far exceeds those of
other groups of voters. And because these two groups are so important
to their party’s chances in 2024, Democrats had better find ways to
change direction and wind them back.

What follows are the key summary points:

American public opinion has shifted away from Israel as the invasion
of Gaza continues. A plurality of voters (42%) now say they sympathize
with both Israelis and Palestinians equally. While more Americans
indicated sympathy towards Israelis alone than Palestinians alone,
Palestinians have more support among voters who are young (34% to 16%)
and people of color (21% to 17%).

Since the start of the current violence in Gaza, sympathy for
Palestinians has increased especially among Democrats (23% increased
sympathy towards Palestinians versus 17% toward Israelis), younger
Americans (37% increased sympathy towards Palestinians verses 27% for
Israelis), and people of color (29% increased sympathy towards
Palestinians verses 13% for Israelis).

At the same time, Americans are calling into question the Biden
administration’s handling of the conflict. When asked to evaluate
Biden’s policy, 50% of Americans believe it favors Israel. But when
asked how the Biden administration should conduct U.S. policy, a
plurality of respondents (42%) say U.S. policy should be balanced
between Israeli and Palestinian needs. By a decisive two-to-one
margin, voters say that instead of siding with Israel (a position held
by only 26%), the U.S. should strive to be an honest broker between
Israelis and Palestinians (a position held by 57%).

This questioning of the Biden administration’s one-sided support for
Israel also has an impact on voters’ attitudes toward U.S. military
assistance to that state. By a two-to-one margin (51% to 26%), voters
reject the notion that the U.S. should give unrestricted military
assistance to Israel as long as Israel is putting Palestinian civilian
lives at risk.

By the same two-to-one margin, respondents said that they sided with
those Democratic Senators who objected to the president’s recent
decision to bypass congressional oversight in sending weapons to
Israel. A plurality of voters (41%) now indicate that it is time to
consider cutting or conditioning Israel’s annual $3.8 billion
appropriation for military assistance.

American voters are more likely to vote for candidates that support a
cease-fire. Respondents want a cease-fire and an end to the conflict.
In responses to two separate questions, by a two-to-one margin,
respondents indicated they are more inclined to support a member of
Congress who supports a cease-fire and that they are less willing to
support members of Congress who oppose calls for a cease-fire.

The bottom line is that Democrats should be hearing alarms going off
as a result of the White House’s refusal to stop the way Israel is
conducting this war or even consider supporting a cease-fire to end
the killing. The result is that they are losing votes from groups that
have formed their most loyal supporters.

The caviler attitude of those who are guiding Biden’s campaign is
simplistic and deeply flawed. Betting on young and non-white voters
will all drifting back to Biden in November—since they won’t want
to see Donald Trump return to the White House—is demeaning to the
feelings of these voters. It’s also dangerous. As _The New York
Times _poll demonstrates, almost one in five say they would prefer to
vote for third party candidates. The “political pros” in the White
House need to consider this threat and not discount it as Democrats
did in 2000 and 2016.

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Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices (2010) and the founder
and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington,
D.C.-based which serves as the political and policy research arm of
the Arab American community.

* Palestinian Rights and the US Election; Cease-Fire; Biden Campaign;
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