Top Lines: US Economy And Trade Policy | 2020 Election And Political Analysis | Coronavirus Crisis | Impeachment | Protecting Our Elections And Disinformation | Immigration And The Border | Countering Illiberalism's Rise
Current State – We’ve settled on the COVID Tracking Project as our “538” for the crisis. This Friday morning, the site reports that the US has 12,397 positives out of 111,915 total tests. The growth rate continues to clock in at 7-8x a week, which unchecked would put us at 93,000 next Friday, 700,000 on April 3rd, and 5.2m on April 10th. The site also tracks state level data, and new numbers suggest that FL, LA, MI, and NJ seem to be emerging as significant hot spots beyond CA, NY, and WA.
Testing has begun to pick up now, with a total of over 30,000 reported tests yesterday, the highest single day so far. South Korea meanwhile, a country 1/7th our size, has been at 20,000 a day for weeks. To match that daily testing rate on a per capita basis, the US would need to be testing 130,000-140,000 a day, every day – we are currently at 111,915 for the past 8 weeks combined. We are dangerously behind here, and far more must be done to get the testing regime fully stood up.
As for experts, our go-to person is Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett). Read everything she writes, follow what she says. A few recent examples: Sorry, America, the Full Lock Down Is Coming; MSNBC Interview; WBUR radio interview. This new essay in the Atlantic, "This Is How We Can Beat the Coronavirus," makes recommendations very similar to the ones we make below, and is well worth reading. We also like this new essay by Ron Brownstein that looks at how the perception of what is happening remains different in Red and Blue America.
NDN's Chris Taylor also published a very smart piece yesterday with ideas on how to approach the economic challenges COVID-19 has brought.
Demand A Plan – Eight weeks into the COVID-19 crisis, it is hard to put into words has little the US government has done to tackle the public health side of this crisis. The President’s main initiative, his travel bans, clearly didn’t work; the testing regime still isn’t up and running; social distancing and school/business closures have all been done at the state and local level despite the disease being everywhere. On Thursday, the President reiterated that he doesn't believe that fighting COVID-19 is a federal responsibility despite his "wartime" language. The lack of a national strategy to mitigate the spread of the virus will end up costing us many many lives and untold damage to our economy and society more broadly.
We have asked our readers and members to call Congress every day until the President puts a plan in place and is clearly producing real results. It should include:
More, Better, Faster Tests – The promised flooding of the US with tests simply hasn’t happened, and we just need more understanding of where we are here, and how it is going to get better in the weeks ahead. Over the longer term, the goal of our testing regime has to be for the tests to become ubiquitous and rapid – everywhere and done in minutes/hours, not days. If we are ever to return to normal, efforts to aggressively screen and isolate those with infection (in public buildings, ports of entry, schools, and sports arenas) will have to become routine – like texting a friend. This Guardian story looks at how mass testing helped slow the virus's spread in one Italian town, and this new article in Science magazine explains how mass testing was key to South Korea's flattening of the curve without major lock downs.
Developing ways of proving that you’ve had the virus and are now immune will also be really important, and would require, obviously, that every single American be tested at some point. We found this thread by Yale Professor Nicholas Christakis to be helpful in understanding the issues around immunity and the need for rapid, ubiqitous "serological" tests which are of a different kind than the "PCR" tests which are being deployed right now.
So, yes, we are talking about billions, not tens of thousands, of tests. The government should be making this kind of ubiquitous rapid testing regime its second highest “Manhattan Project” priority, after developing a vaccine. It just isn't clear how we can stand society back up in the coming months without it. Dr. Scott Gottlieb does a good job at describing the importance of a big crash project for tests, better equipment, and therapeutics in this new thread.
Equipment/Beds/Staff – The President and Congress have to take responsibility for a national plan to handle the extraordinary health care crisis that the nation will face in just a few days’ time. We need wartime-level production of protective gear, ventilators, ICU beds, and isolation/quarantine wards. We will need a way to employ more health care workers too – perhaps with temporary unemployment rising there can be a way to take qualified people and crash train them as hospital/health care staff.
The President’s refusal to take responsibility for this part of our national response remains hard to understand and explain. Congress must step in here and force both a funded national strategy and compliance with it in the coming days; and to show his support for a robust US healthcare system, the President should withdraw his support for a lawsuit which could cripple the ACA in the midst of this pandemic.
Pass The Klobuchar/Wyden Vote By Mail Bill – The American people need to know that the fall election will take place without interruption and interference. While there is much to do here, a great place to start is by passing this new bill which will stand up a national vote by mail program for every state this fall. There is still time to do this, and we should all make this a very high priority in the days ahead.
Appoint A Clear Leadership Team – Congress and the public should put tremendous pressure on the President to develop a clear leadership structure for managing the crisis over the next 18 months. Is there a White House chief of staff? Can we get a DHS Secretary and senior leadership team at DHS in place? Don’t we need a new CDC director given the testing debacle he has overseen? What is Jared doing? The level of chaos and incompetence that we’ve seen is unacceptable and the nation needs greater confidence and transparency about what is being done on their behalf and who is doing it. To this end, the House should consider appointing a select committee or special leadership team to expedite decision making and to hold the Administration accountable.
Develop A National Strategy For Students/Kids – As part of eventually developing a true national social/physical distancing strategy (incl with the federal workforce), the US govt will have to help communities and families come to terms with what it means that kids may be home until the fall semester (no schools, summer activities). This is a large and important area which needs far more attention and creativity, but two initial thoughts: 1) Public Health – the early messages about young people being less vulnerable to COVID-19 and thus somehow less responsible has to be corrected aggressively in the days ahead. We know from data that young people in other countries have become infected at very high rates, and seem to be critical to the rapid transmission of COVID. But it is also for themselves – early data here in the US show that young people are turning up in ICU units at much higher rates than in China, and COVID can permanently damage the lungs of anyone infected.
2) What do we do with our kids for the next six months if schools and summer camps are cancelled? This is not just a sanity thing for these students and families - having kids at home will make it far harder to stand the economy back up when the virus ebbs.
It is our recommendation that all schools and colleges involved in distance learning now develop a “pandemic module” to help young people better understand how to stay safe, reduce infection, and navigate the rigors of life at home, away from their friends and the lives they’ve built for themselves. These kinds of courses may be the most valuable things that schools can do in the months ahead.
Best,
Simon
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