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Dear John,
Be sure to visit our website:
www.ircgop.com [[link removed]]
IRC Version of February, 2020, Florida County Republican Registrations Report and
Elections Analysis
©Stephen R. Meyer, Vero Beach, Florida, March, 2020
Issued 3/19/20
Best wishes on staying healthy!

* Congratulations to Taylor County for having joined the ranks of the now 46 counties
where Republican registrations outnumber the number of Democrat registrations!
* One county did not issue February registration numbers until late in the day of
March 16. In the future, this report will be released by the second week of the
trailing month based on the numbers available. This may leave the report with dated
information which will be noted. Ideally RECs are fact based, data driven organizations
that are tracking and modifying their efforts based on critical metrics such as
voter registrations and building permit issuance.
* There were roughly 34 weeks from the end of February to the early voting period
of the 2020 election.
* In order to vote in Florida's March presidential primary, changes in voters' registrations
needed to take place in February. A significant number of voters did register or
change their party affiliation during the month, with Republican registrations
increasing by 47,156 and Democrat registrations increasing by 96,408.
* In February, Republican registrations in Florida, relative to Democrat registrations,
had a significant drop. With a 49,252 relative registration decline, the Republican
deficit now stands at 278,126 (See attached chart and tables).

Click Here to View Document [[link removed]]


* There were fourteen counties where the Democrats gained over one thousand relative
registrations. Some of the counties with larger numbers of relative Democrat registrations
gains were; a 7,913 relative Democrat registration gain in Broward County, 4,194
in Duval County, 5,445 in Hillsborough County, 5,543 in Miami-Dade, 7,223 in Orange
County, 6,483 in Palm Beach County, and 4,810 in Pinellas County.
* The Republican strongholds of Brevard, Collier, Lee, Manatee, Sarasota, and St.
Johns Counties all saw The Democrats gain over one thousand relative registrations.
* Sumter County (with a 4,277 Republican relative registrations gain) was the only
county where Republicans gained more than one thousand relative registrations.
* Indian River County fell from having the 20th best Republican registrations margin
over that of the Democrats to being the 21st best as Walton County passed us in
the relative rankings (see Table 1). February was a poor month in IRC for registrations
as Republican registrations increased by 155 while Democrat registrations increased
by 833 giving the Democrats a net gain of 678 registrations!
Florida Republicans have been experiencing relatively poor registrations numbers
since June, 2018. February's poor numbers should add impetus for Republicans to
initiate a response. There are two courses of action that may be undertaken:

1. Continue existing efforts to grow Republican market share, but do it better and/or
work harder.
2. Expand Republican efforts to include state, local and national policy, especially
as it concerns the creation of greater amounts of Republican habitat and lesser
amounts of Democrat habitat.
An observation: Rush Limbaugh, arguably the most significant non-politician conservative
personality of the past few decades (and who we pray has success in his fight against
cancer), President Trump, arguably the most formidable Republican politician of
the past few decades, and Florida Republican National Committeeman Peter Feaman,
all reside in Palm Beach County. Palm Beach County is a majority Democrat County
where Democrats continue to grow market share. How can those of us of lesser influence
and talent then have any chance of successfully influencing the political orientation
of our own counties, when even with these great men being in residence in Palm Beach
county, Democrats continue to increase their market share?
The most significant factor in how counties trend politically is the type of habitat
being created in the counties. The creation of Republican habitat, which is roughly
one-quarter as politically effective as is the creation of Democrat habitat, is
accomplished by creating copious amounts of owner-occupied housing. Democrat habitat
is created when there is a shortage of, and thus more expensive, owner-occupied
housing, and plentiful amounts of rental housing, much of which gets built owing
to the rental housing being subsidized in some manner by some combination of local,
state and federal government programs. The greatness of the combination of Rush
Limbaugh, President Trump and Peter Feaman has not proven capable of overcoming
the negative political ramifications of the housing policies that exist in Palm
Beach County.
Increasing Republican relative registrations, and vote gains, tend to take place
where homeownership rates are high and median home prices are low. The following
observations are taken from the February registration data;

* All counties with homeownership rates greater than 80% had positive Republican
relative registration numbers.
* Of the 29 counties with an over 75% homeownership rate, 24 (82.8%) had positive
Republican relative registration numbers.
* 15 of 21 counties (71.4%) with a homeownership rate of less than 70% had negative
Republican relative registration numbers.
* Of those seven counties with a homeownership rate less than 60%, all had negative
Republican relative registration numbers!
* Of the 16 counties with a median home price over $200,000, 14 (87.5%) had negative
Republican relative registration numbers.
* Of the thirty five counties with a median home price less than $160,000, 32 (93.4%)
had positive Republican relative registration numbers
Note: Homeownership rates and median home prices result from past permit issuance.
In most cases recent permitting information is not readily available. With Republican
relative registrations falling, it may be concluded that the amount of rental housing
coming on-line, and the lack of owner-occupied housing coming on-line, is not allowing
the Republican Party to maintain its market share.
Most Republican Executive Committees (RECs) have been exclusively campaign organizations
with policy being the responsibility of elected officials. As the Republican stalled
growth in relative registrations demonstrates; policy is much too important to solely
entrust to the politicians.
There are two areas of interest in politics; the political orientation of an electorate
and the trend of the political orientation of the electorate. Table 3 in this month's
registration report shows how Florida Counties compared in Republican vote margin
(the relative change in orientation of the counties over time) in the 2012 through
2018 elections and by relative registration margin gains since the 2018 election.
Table 4 shows similar information on how counties are performing (the relative change
in how counties are trending) for trends based on four year election cycles.
To see how a particular county is doing, locate the county of interest in the column
to the far right and see how the county has fared relative to other counties over
time by examining the columns to the left. For example using Table 3, my home County
of Indian River was the 18th most Republican County in 2012, relatively improved
to being the 17th most Republican County in 2014, and fell to being the 23rd most
Republican county in both 2016 and 2018. In current relative registrations, Indian
River County ranks as the 21st best county in Florida.
Best,
Steve Meyer, Indian River County REC Member
Contact Information: Steve Meyer
Phone or text: 772-713-8265
Email: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
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Click on this link to email me: [mailto:[email protected]]
Joe Saul
Secretary Indian River County REC
www.ircgop.com [[link removed]]
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GOD BLESS AMERICA

Joe Saul
Secretary
Indian River County Republican Executive Committee

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Indian River County Republican Executive Committee | 2001 9th Ave. | Ste. 107 | Vero Beach | FL | 32960