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Ruptured supply chains, rising oil prices, and resurgent inflation. The Red Sea crisis is rekindling memories of the Ukraine War—but this time could be different - Fortune (Full Access)   

It’s now day 30 of the Red Sea crisis—and month four of worries of a wider Middle East conflict, the possibility of which has concerned economists and politicians alike since the Oct. 7 outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. Over the past month, Houthi militants based in Yemen have repeatedly attacked cargo ships in the area, forcing shipping giants to reroute their vessels around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. That’s a big deal, because roughly 15% of the world’s shipping traffic, and 30% of its container traffic, transits the Red Sea each year, including oil tankers and container ships transporting every type of product you can imagine. 

The conflict has intensified in recent days. On Thursday, a U.S.-led coalition ordered airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, a week after Iran, which has backed Houthi militants for years, deployed the warship Alborz to the region. Even oil tankers, which for a time had continued their transit through the Red Sea even as cargo vessels headed for safer passages, abandoned the trade route this week. On Friday, four major oil tankers changed their course to avoid the Red Sea after the most recent strikes by the U.S. and its allies. 

Ominously, for the global economy, which was rattled by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, geopolitics could be returning to center stage before the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle has been completely won.

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