Supporters of Lai Ching-te, presidential candidate of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), cheer during an election campaign rally in Keelung, Taiwan, on January 8, 2024. (I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images)

This weekend, Taiwanese voters will decide which future they want—one that continues to embrace the America-forward foreign policy of the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), or one that attempts to rekindle a relationship with China.

In The Messenger, Senior Fellow Riley Walters explains what the Taiwanese election means for American interests and the United States–China competition.

Key Insights

1. Whoever wins, America should continue to support Taiwan, which remains an important beacon for democracy in Asia and a strong economic and technology partner of the US.

It’s important for Americans watching the election to not see this dichotomy as Taiwan moving either in an anti-China or anti-America direction. Both the US and China will remain important in Taiwan politics. And whichever party wins, China will remain the greatest threat to Taiwan’s future. Taiwan’s presidential candidates recognize that Beijing has not abandoned its plan to subjugate Taiwan, either through peaceful means or by force. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, repeated this sentiment to President Joe Biden recently. However, the difference between Taiwan’s presidential candidates is how they think Taiwan should respond to this threat.

2. A DPP victory would signal an embrace of the policies of Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, which include building deeper relationships with America, Europe, Japan, and others across the Indo-Pacific.

If the incumbent DPP wins, it will continue ongoing trade and investment efforts between Taipei and Washington. But they may expect more, such as progress on a bilateral tax agreement or America’s support for Taiwan to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership—even though the US is not a member of the trade agreement. Taipei will also look to expand dialogues with other partners around the world in an effort to combat years of Beijing’s efforts to internationally isolate Taiwan.  

3. The opposition’s alternative vision includes taking the spotlight off US-Taiwan relations and restarting past economic and cultural exchanges between Taipei and Beijing.

Beijing may be desperate for Taiwanese trade, investment, and talent as its economy stumbles. But it is also likely that Beijing will continue down a path of belligerent diplomacy across the Indo-Pacific. Washington policymakers will have to adjust accordingly. If either opposition candidate wins, we can expect to see far fewer US lawmakers welcomed to Taipei. Also expect to hear less from the various dialogues between the US and Taiwan, such as those held either through the State Department, Commerce Department, or US Trade Representative’s Office. These efforts will remain ongoing, but Taipei’s new leadership will want to minimize the publicity around their progress.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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