January 12, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Pennsylvania May Be the Closest Battleground State but Immigration and The Economy Could Tip the Scales
By Manzanita Miller
Pennsylvania presented one of the closest – and most contentious – presidential election matchups in 2020, with Trump memorably leading the state on election night only to have victory snatched from under him when a flood of absentee ballots streamed in and reversed that picture. Biden ended up narrowly eking out a victory by a 1.17% margin in 2020, after Trump won the state in 2016.
Now, Pennsylvania is shaping up to be one of the closest races of the 2024 election. Unlike in battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina – where Trump has amassed wide leads in recent polls – he is polling neck and neck with Biden in Pennsylvania.
However, if we dig beneath the surface Pennsylvanians give Biden a lopsided disapproval rating, hold a bleak outlook on the economy, and strongly prioritize securing the southern border, issues that could drive a larger share of moderates and Independents toward Trump.
The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Trump earning 46% of the vote to Biden’s 49% in Pennsylvania, a reversal from June when Quinnipiac found Trump narrowly beating Biden for the first time in a high-quality poll since 2015.
The January 2024 Quinnipiac poll indicates that while voters are considering reelecting Biden, they are critical of his record, and largely disagree with Democrats on immigration, a top priority for the state.
Biden’s approval rating is underwater by close to 20 points, with 58% of voters disapproving of his performance to 40% approving. For comparison, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro has a relatively high 59% approval rating. This is not an endorsement of Shapiro by any means, but it does illustrate just how bleak Biden’s numbers are in a state which elected a Democratic governor and appears fairly pleased with their choice.
On the economy, voters are gloomy, and many believe their income is not keeping up with inflation. Pennsylvania voters say 44% to 26% the nation’s economy is getting worse, and two-thirds (66%) say the economy is not so good or poor according to the poll. On a personal note, 61% of voters say their income is not able to keep up with inflation.
Immigration is a glaring issue that could drive Pennsylvania voters away from Biden and Democrats, as Pennsylvanians place a high priority on border security and are deeply troubled about the way Democrats have handled the border.
According to the poll, border security is the second most important issue to Pennsylvania voters, with 24% of voters saying preserving Democracy is their number one issue out of a slate of 11 issues, while 23% say border security is number one and 15% say the economy is number one. No other issue reached double digits in the poll.
While Pennsylvania is not a border state, the people of Pennsylvania are highly aware of the ramifications of illegal immigration and our porous southern border. A recent CBS News / YouGov poll found 45% of Americans believe the border is in crisis, but in Pennsylvania an overwhelming 59% of voters say illegal immigration is a very serious problem. This implies Pennsylvanians views the border security issue as a crisis by close to 14 points more than the public at large. What is more, Pennsylvanians say 79% to 15% that Congressional Democrats should compromise with Republicans to come to a solution on the border issue.
Pennsylvania is showing one of the tightest races for the 2024 presidential election, and unlike in several other battleground states which have flipped to support Trump by wide margins compared to 2020, Pennsylvania remains highly contentious. That said, Biden’s approval rating in the state is extremely low, and voters feel their economic stability is on the decline under Biden. Immigration is a hot-button issue in Pennsylvania, and voters’ vehement declaration that the border is in crisis could push the needle toward Trump.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/01/pennsylvania-may-be-the-closest-battleground-state-but-immigration-and-the-economy-could-tip-the-scales/
Video: Washington State Democrats Deem Ammo A Privilege
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d51qXLdvnhc
While consumer prices surge a little, producer prices drop for third consecutive month. Are we getting the soft landing?
By Robert Romano
Consumer prices experienced a 0.3 percent increase in the December amid jumps in electricity, shelter and medical care services, growing at 3.4 percent rate over 12 months, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while producer prices cooled off for the third month in a row amid major drops in food and energy costs.
Electricity for consumers was up 1.3 percent, following a 1.4 percent increase in November.
Shelter was up another 0.5 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in November.
And medical care services were up 0.7 percent, following a 0.6 percent increase in November.
On the producer side, the cost of foods dropped 0.9 percent.
Energy was down 1.2 percent, following a 2.4 percent drop in November.
And transportation and warehousing was down 0.4 percent, following a 0.2 percent drop in November.
Since consumer prices are downstream from producer prices, the drops in producer costs — which are down to a 2.5 percent rate over 12 months — are likely a good sign that the price increases are headed for the rear-view mirror.
The downside is that this may also reflect demand ultimately cooling off following the economy overheating with inflation in 2021 and 2022. Eventually, households max out their credit and demand slows as the business cycle comes to an end. Then, layoffs and firings ensue and the unemployment rate goes up.
As it is, the Federal Reserve is projecting unemployment to rise from its current level to 4.1 percent this year. That’s an implied 650,000 jobs lost or so from the current level in the household survey, give or take.
Whether that results in a recession or merely an economic slowdown — labor markets are being offset by the major retirement wave underway by Baby Boomers — might matter less than if households who have definitely felt the pinch as inflation outpaced incomes take it out on President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race.
Soft landing or no, the damage may have already been done. The question is how much fallout will occur in labor markets. Stay tune.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.