From Deb Otis, FairVote Action <[email protected]>
Subject Chris Christie dropped out. What happens now?
Date January 11, 2024 10:33 PM
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Spoiler alert: Nikki Haley benefits. Learn what ranked choice polling tells
about the state of the race, and how RCV would let voters decide while freeing
candidates from accusations of "playing spoiler." Donate Today Dear
John,

Yesterday afternoon, Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race. His
departure followsintensepressurefromprominentcritics of Donald Trump urging
Christie to drop out to avoid splitting the anti-Trump vote.

Read on to learn what polling says about the state of the race, and howranked
choice voting(RCV) would let voters decide – instead of party elites – while
freeing candidates from accusations of “playing spoiler.”

Who benefits now that Chris Christie dropped out?

We don’t need to wait for new polls to answer this question. A growing number of
ranked choice polls ask voters upfront who their second choice would be if their
favorite candidate leaves the race.

For instance, a WPA Intelligence/FairVote poll released in October finds that a
majority of Chris Christie voters favor Nikki Haley as a backup choice. Other
recent polls have found the same thing. Donald Trump still has a large lead
nationally, but Christie’s supporters could put Haley and Trump neck-and-neck in
the crucial state of New Hampshire.

Read more about the state of the race on FairVote’s blog.

Ranked choice voting prevents “wasted votes”

Despite Christie’s withdrawal, his name will still appear on the ballot in New
Hampshire and other states where ballot deadlines have passed. This can lead to
“wasted votes” cast by voters unaware that Christie has dropped out. 700,000
Republican primary voters cast wasted votes in 2016, and three million
Democratic primary voters did so in 2020.

Instead of allowing wasted votes, states should implement ranked choice voting
and let voters rank candidates on their ballots. If a candidate drops out,
voters who selected that candidate will have their vote count for their
highest-ranked candidate who is still active.

RCV would give more voters a voice in the nomination process, and prevent wasted
votes in a crowded and volatile field of candidates.

Ranked choice voting mitigates the “spoiler effect”

Chris Christie’s experience isn’t unique: In election after election, candidates
are pressured to drop out so their supporters can consolidate around a more
electable candidate. Voters are accused by friends and family of “throwing their
vote away” on a longshot option.

Fortunately, the choice between picking your favorite candidate and an electable
candidate is a false one. With ranked choice voting, you can do both. As former
state GOP party chairs Saul Anuzis and Stan Lockhart wrote inReal Clear Politics
this week:

“If Republicans simply used ranked-choice voting in presidential primaries,
everybody would win . . . Republican voters could pick their winner, regardless
of what any poll or New York Times article says, confident that the strongest
candidate with a real majority would move on to the fall election poised to beat
Joe Biden.”

Letting more candidates run instead of pushing them to drop out would also mean
more of the party's best and brightest traveling, speaking at events, and
spreading the party’s message. That would lead to a stronger nominee heading
into the general election.

It’s not just conservatives asking for ranked choice voting, though. Anew report
from the Center for American Progress highlights the power of RCV and
proportional RCVto make government work better:

“[Open primaries and RCV in Alaska] did not favor one political party over
another; it favored the voters by providing them with more choices in the
primary election and a greater ability to express their preferences during the
general election. This in turn led to a state legislature that prioritized
governing and building consensus around policies instead of focusing on
political grandstanding.”

Ranked choice voting’s biggest year yet

The good news is, ranked choice voting is already catching on in presidential
elections. Maine and Alaska will use it for their presidential general elections
this year. Democrats in Alaska and Wyoming, Republicans in the Virgin Islands,
and Mainers of both parties will be able to use it in their presidential
primaries.

As the primaries approach, follow FairVote’snews and analysis pagefor the latest
updates on how RCV improves elections for Democrats, Republicans, and
independents alike!

Sincerely,
Deb Otis
FairVote Action Director of Research and Policy

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