It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

LEADERS AGREE ON ONE THING: $1.7 TRILLION IN SPENDING
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

It is the month of cliffhangers.

In the election cycle …
* Will Donald Trump’s court appearances ([link removed]) affect his primary leads?
* Will Ron DeSantis do or die ([link removed]) in Iowa?
* Will Nikki Haley give Trump real competition ([link removed]) in New Hampshire?
* Can Biden win the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate ([link removed]) ?

And in Congress …
* Will there be a border deal ([link removed]) ?
* How about one on the child tax credit ([link removed]) ?
* Will we see a government shutdown ([link removed]) ?

At least one thing is resolved. We have a topline deal.

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Watch the segment in the player above.

House and Senate leaders have agreed on the overall spending amount ([link removed]) for the part of the federal budget that Congress controls.

Known as discretionary funding, this is the same piece of the budget that keeps most government agencies running. A “topline” means Senate Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Mike Johnson have agreed on the overall amount of spending Congress should allow.

So let’s lay out what we know.

What does this spending cover? This spending is for the current year, known in Washingtonese as fiscal year 2024, or FY2024. In theory, these spending amounts should have been negotiated roughly a full year ago, so that agencies would be operating under these amounts now. But instead, Congress has repeatedly passed temporary bills keeping funding at last year’s amounts.
* Total spending. The leaders agreed to about $1.7 trillion.
* Defense: $887 billion for military spending.
* Non-defense: $772 billion for nondefense spending. That includes $121 billion for veterans.
* Is this an increase or cut? This is very close to the previous year’s spending. The defense amount is a modest increase — $29 billion or 3 percent — over last year’s spending. The nondefense amount, depending on your precise fiscal year 2023 figure, is either a $1 billion increase or precisely the same as last year. (We calculated those amounts and cross-checked them with smart sources across both aisles and chambers. There is an “apples-to-apples” issue with the nondefense number that allows for the $1 billion difference of opinion.)
* Overall, what does this mean? The deal does not cut spending but it restrains it far more than in recent years. This is nearly identical to the deal former Speaker Kevin McCarthy agreed to last year. The compromise with the raising of the debt ceiling and passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act ([link removed]) last year was one reason McCarthy was ousted. In that way, this could be a problem for Speaker Mike Johnson

Now, let’s get deeper into the numbers. This deal is not quite straight spending. As part of the deal, lawmakers agreed to help pay for the nondefense part with some $69 billion in what are being called “adjustments.” Think of these as budget devices that help the bottom line. Some are real money, some are accounting tricks.
* What is in the $69 billion “adjustments”? Get ready for a full blast of wonkiness. All this from multiple sources, Republican and Democratic, in both chambers.
+ $20.2 billion, IRS. This comes from rescinding planned IRS funding increases
+ $15 billion, changes in mandatory programs (CHIMPS). These are accounting maneuvers centered around moving funding and projects between mandatory and discretionary categories. (I warned you: This is wonky.)
+ $12.4 billion, Commerce. Money here is from rescinding emergency funds for the Commerce Department during the coronavirus pandemic.
+ $6.1 billion, unspent COVID money. This is a new “adjustment” in the deal.
+ $12.5 billion. The billions here are from shifting or recalculating the base for some emergency spending that negotiators say is not needed.
+ $2.8 billion, housing receipts. Negotiators agreed to use a higher estimate, one from the Office of Management and Budget, for this source of revenue.

What happens now?
* Appropriators have a sprint. Now, appropriators in the House and Senate have to attempt to write 12 bills in just three weeks — four of them by Jan. 19 — in order to avoid government shutdowns.
* It is hard to see how that happens. As one source involved in all this told me last week, “It takes the Senate a week to tie its shoes,” much less for both chambers to agree on all of these bills.
* There is one positive. Senate appropriators did write and pass 12 separate bills last year. And the House committee passed 10. But now, they need to adjust numbers and come up with compromise bills.
* Meanwhile, House conservatives are threatening to block this deal, with some calling it “unacceptable.” ([link removed])
* Speaker Johnson faces several choices. First, does he allow a short-term funding bill to buy time for appropriations bills? That would be a reversal from his “I’m done with short-term CRs” declaration last year ([link removed]) . Second, does he insist on border security changes as part of a spending deal, as some hard-right conservatives want? Third, does he push through a spending bill if it can only pass with help from large numbers of Democrats (as seems likely)?

What’s at stake?
* Government function. One portion of the U.S. government would shut down Jan. 19 if there is no funding passed by then. And the rest would shut down Feb. 2.
* Speaker Johnson’s future. This is yet another razor-wire he has to tread.
* U.S. red ink. The national debt continues to grow ([link removed]) , and this deal will set its next trajectory. It is growing by less, but still growing.

More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: With less than a week to go before Iowa’s caucuses, the first primary event of the 2024 presidential election cycle, here's where the GOP race stands ([link removed]) .
* One Big Question: What messages are resonating in the final week of GOP candidates’ campaigns in Iowa? Tamara Keith and Amy Walter discuss ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: How Minnesota redesigned its state flag ([link removed]) to remove insensitive imagery.
* Perspectives: The White House didn’t know for days about Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization. Here’s why that matters ([link removed]) .

SEN. MENENDEZ’S DEFIANT RESPONSE TO CORRUPTION CHARGES
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Watch the senator's full remarks in the player above.

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

Sen. Bob Menendez delivered a lengthy defense Tuesday after federal prosecutors expanded their bribery case against the New Jersey Democrat, who is accused of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash and goods in exchange for political favors.

“After 50 years of public service, this is not how I wanted to celebrate my Golden Jubilee,” the senator said in a nearly 20-minute response ([link removed]) from the Senate floor. “But I have never violated the public trust. I have been a patriot for and of my country.”

Prosecutors formally charged the senator ([link removed]) and wife, Nadine Menendez, in September for aiding the government of Egypt in an alleged bribery scheme that involved taking gold bars, a luxury vehicle and cash in exchange for his political influence.

Prosecutors have since revised the indictment two more times. In October, they accused the former Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair of conspiring as a foreign agent ([link removed]) by working in Egypt’s interests. Last week, another superseding federal indictment ([link removed]) accused him of using his power to help the government of Qatar. Menendez has denied the charges.

Facing calls from some Senate Democrats to resign ([link removed]) , Menendez also pushed back against prosecutors from the Senate floor.

"The United States Attorney's Office is engaged not in a prosecution, but a persecution. They seek a victory, not justice," he said in his defiant remarks.

The trial is scheduled to start in May.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

Women remain underrepresented in state and federal offices — as well as on the municipal level.

Going into another election year, women hold fewer than one-third of municipal offices ([link removed]) nationwide, according to data from the Center for American Women and Politics. That includes mayoral offices, city councils and commissions, among other bodies.

But on Tuesday, all of the seats of one U.S. city council will be filled by women, the first time in the city’s 170-year history.

Our question: Which U.S. city is swearing in its first all-female city council?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which famous musician does Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley call her idol?

The answer: Joan Jett. In a 2012 Marie Claire profile ([link removed]) , Haley touted her “great love” for the iconic rock star, saying Jett “was one of the first female rockers when female rockers weren't accepted.” Since then, Haley has met Jett and was featured in a 2018 documentary ([link removed]) focused on the musician’s career. Haley also thanked Jett for the inspiration in the acknowledgments of her book, “If You Want Something Done: Leadership Lessons from Bold Women.”

Congratulations to our winners: Irene L. Hause and Bob Schmid!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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