Can Prop 13 survive in progressive California? Colorado's TABOR clash hints at voter distrust, foreshadowing a showdown for taxpayer rights.

At your request: This week's California Commentary by Jon Coupal
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** California Commentary
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** Colorado’s lesson to California about tax reform
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By Jon Coupal

Can meaningful tax reform advance, or even survive, in progressive blue states? In California, this is not just an academic question. Proposition 13 has been under constant assault since its passage in 1978. But the core of Proposition 13 – the one percent tax rate cap on real property and the two percent limit on annual increases in taxable value – remains unscathed.

Prop 13’s popularity over four decades has remained constant even as the California of Ronald Reagan and Pete Wilson has morphed into one of America’s most liberal states. Now, two-thirds of both houses of the California Legislature are held by Democrats, as well as all statewide elected offices. And yet polling suggests that if Prop 13 were on the ballot today, it would still pass by more than 60% just as it did in 1978. (Prop 13 even survived an effort to strip its protections from “evil” corporations when voters rejected the “split roll” initiative in 2020).

In assessing Prop 13’s continued survival in 2024, it is helpful to consider what has happened to established tax reform measures in other states that have drifted from red to blue. In Colorado, the Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR) limits state government revenue growth and it requires taxpayer refunds of any surplus. In 2022, the TABOR surplus refund was $750 per taxpayer. Like Prop 13, TABOR has achieved iconic status with Centennial State voters.

This past November, Colorado’s political leadership thought they had a shot at weakening TABOR because Democrats (and their union allies) were dominant. Politically, Colorado bears a striking resemblance to California, with Democrats holding all constitutional offices and a supermajority of legislative seats (69%). Another similarity is that the political elites in Colorado hate TABOR just as much as the political elites in California hate Prop 13.

That dislike of TABOR drove the Governor and the state’s legislative leader to put Measure HH on last November’s ballot, which would have raised the caps on what the statehouse can tax and spend. Gov. Polis and Democratic legislators were salivating over the additional $42 billion that HH would generate by 2040.

But Colorado voters would have none of this and crushed Measure HH by over 60%. This despite a misleading ballot label (sound familiar?) that Democrats slapped on it in an attempt to fool voters that HH was something that it was not.

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Click here to listen to this week's Howard Jarvis Podcast, " Our UPBEAT Forecast for the New Year" ([link removed]) The Howard Jarvis Podcast features HJTA President Jon Coupal and VP of Communications Susan Shelley with a lively conversation that takes you inside California government in a way that's fun, interesting and sometimes scary. Check out all the recent podcasts by clicking here: [link removed]
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Jon Coupal is the President of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association (HJTA). He is a recognized expert in California fiscal affairs and has argued numerous tax cases before the courts.
HJTA always appreciates the support of its members, if it doesn't pose a hardship. Your donations help us fight to protect Proposition 13 and all California taxpayers.
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