What’s Coming in 2024?

2023 was not exactly a banner year. The two presidential candidates that most Americans say they don’t want to be president spent the year strengthening their claims to their party’s nomination. Unless something changes soon, the 2024 election will be like one of those Westerns in which two rival gangs ride into town for a violent showdown and the only thing law-abiding citizens can do is get off the streets and let it happen.

And speaking of violent gangs, challenges to the American-led order continued apace, with Iranian-backed militant group Hamas setting the Middle East ablaze with its horrific attack against Israel and Vladimir Putin remaining in control of one-fifth of Ukraine. Other developments that characterized the year include the collapse of two large American banks, the ouster of Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy—followed by weeks of political and legislative dysfunction—and the continued chaos at the U.S.-Mexico border.

There were a few positive developments as well. Economic growth picked up and inflation came down. The first CRISPR gene treatment was approved, and the first human eye was successfully transplanted. And perhaps most importantly, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s romance turned out to be more than a publicity stunt. 

What 2024 will bring is anyone’s guess. But that didn’t stop us from asking some of our favorite Discourse writers to do just that and come up with developments—good or bad—that might occur this year. We asked them to stay away from the upcoming election (just because everyone and their pet ferret is talking about it) but otherwise to prognosticate about anything and everything. We hope you enjoy what they came up with.

James Lileks on Familiarity

In 2024, you’ll get more of the same, less of what you like, more of what you don’t and unexpected new additions to your world that remind you you’re alive.  Perhaps the best thing you can hope for is a headline next December 31 that makes sense, has familiar terms and needs no explanation. If you see “Congress debates aid package amidst new Donbas offensive,” you know the previous paradigms have held. If you see “waves of crimson-tainted MULPASs batter drone-dog troops at Garmex front,” you'll know something has really changed.

Michael Ard on Ukraine and the U.S. Economy

Through 2024, the Ukraine war will grind on indecisively, but peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv will begin before the end of the year. In Gaza, Israel will assume full military occupation, with Iran’s proxy Hamas largely destroyed and its leadership scattered to other Arab states. At least Iran will lose significant prestige among its “axis of resistance” allies for not allowing them to fight Israel and the U.S. harder. Defying most predictions, Benjamin Netanyahu will remain as Israel’s prime minister.   

This will be a good year for the American economy, with shrinking inflation (3% or less), lower gas prices, slightly reduced interest rates and a bullish stock market. The U.S. will hit a record level of 14 million barrels of crude produced per day in 2024. But electric vehicle sales also will increase to nearly 2 million in the U.S. Attracted by the stronger economy, even more illegal migrants will crowd the U.S.’s southern border. And the improved economy will supersede the American electorate’s concerns about our overwhelmed border—which will have a real impact on the U.S. presidential election.

David Masci on Space Travel

The mainstreaming of generative AI was far and away the biggest science and technology (and business) story of last year. And given the technology’s near-limitless promise as well as its sorcerer’s apprentice-like dangers, AI is likely to remain a big deal this year and for years to come. But the biggest and most important science story this year may involve hardware rather than software. That’s because this year Space X’s massive 400-foot rocket, dubbed Starship, is likely to successfully reach orbit and return to earth.

With its versatile, reliable and reusable Falcon 9 rocket, Space X has already come to dominate the global commercial launch business, accounting for nearly half of all successful orbital missions in 2023. But when it becomes operational, Starship (which is the largest rocket ever built) will be orders of magnitude more capable than Falcon 9, able to carry six times more payload into space. More importantly, Starship is designed not just for orbital use, but for deep space missions as well. According to Space X, Starship will be able to carry 100 people to the moon, Mars and beyond. And, of course, like Falcon 9, it’s reusable.

Brian Knight on the Future of Finance Regulation

Admittedly this is as much a wish as a prediction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 2024 saw the courts force major changes in how financial regulation is done. Two big issues this year before the Supreme Court that could make this happen stem from upcoming cases concerning the use of administrative law judges and the use of reputation risk guidance.

The administrative law judge case involves a practice wherein an agency forces a party targeted for an enforcement action into an in-house court presided over by an agency employee whose decision can be overruled by agency leadership. Only after all of this occurs can the targeted party go to federal court. This process is being challenged on separation of powers and due process grounds, since it involves the possibility of unduly insulating agencies from democratic control as well as the right of a defendant to seek redress in a regular court of law.

The second case concerns the use of reputation risk by financial regulators to discourage firms from doing business with controversial clients. The case at issue involves the New York Department of Financial Services discouraging banks and insurance companies from doing business with the National Rifle Association and other gun-rights groups because of their political advocacy. This action is being challenged on First Amendment grounds because the National Rifle Association argues the New York Department of Financial Services was trying to use financial services regulation to suppress their speech.

Losses by the regulators in either case could undercut major tools currently used by regulators to shape conduct by financial firms. Likewise, financial services firms have become more willing to sue their regulators over rulemakings and enforcement actions. This has introduced a level of judicial oversight that up to now hasn’t been common for financial regulators but that is likely to continue. At the end of the process, financial regulation may end up looking far more transparent as well as more confrontational and adversarial than it currently does.

Michael Puttré on the Coming Conflict With Iran

The deterioration of the existing world order reveals the vulnerability of global commerce passing through littoral choke points, such as the Bab el-Mandeb, the Strait of Gibraltar and perhaps even the Panama Canal. Iran has threatened all of these regions in 2023, either through direct action or those of its proxies, most recently realized by continuing maritime attacks in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels from Yemen. The U.S. Navy will be hard pressed to find enough Aegis destroyers to hold off militant speedboats and $2 million missiles to intercept $2,000 drones. The U.S. and its allies will have to hit hostile launchers and magazines ashore before missiles are fired. Iran will respond by sending more sophisticated anti-ship and air defense weapons to Yemen and expanding the conflict to sharply increase global shipping rates as a means to bring international pressure on Israel. As a result, the U.S. and Iran will likely be in a direct shooting war over the course of 2024.

Nathan Goetting on a Potential New Era for Executions

Convicted murderer Kenneth Eugene Smith’s execution date has been set for January 25. This will mark the first time the U.S. will execute a death row inmate using an experimental, never-before-tried method: inert gas asphyxiation, also known as “nitrogen hypoxia.” By doing so, it may set a new precedent for executions in America.

Throughout the long, contentious history of capital punishment in America, states have struggled to find a painless, instantaneous and reliable method of execution. The most commonly used method today, lethal injection, is falling from favor. Inert gas asphyxiation, some experts claim, will slowly and smoothly drift inmates into unconsciousness and death. Electric chairs and lethal injections both entered our criminal justice system with the promise of ensuring “humane executions.” They’ve failed to live up to that promise. Some are optimistic and some are skeptical that inert gas asphyxiation could finally reach that goal. But Smith’s execution may prove momentous in determining what executions may look like in the future.

Jennifer Tiedemann on Illiberalism and Institutions

Driven largely by this year’s presidential election coverage—and voters’ widespread disdain for both President Biden and his potential Republican challengers—Americans’ trust in government and in the media will continue to decline. This dual trend will end up feeding another ominous trend: a growth in Americans’ tolerance for illiberalism, both on the political right and left. Across the political spectrum, there’s even a growing belief that political violence may be justified “in order to save our country.” 

But I also believe that this year will remind us that the American experiment is not doomed. Far from it. Fortunately, our institutions—despite the low levels of trust—will remain rock solid, serving even those who decry their usefulness. When a man was charged in December for destroying a Satanic Temple statue in the Iowa State capitol, his supporters turned not to violence but to donating to his legal defense fund. To be honest, the fact that the man’s backers immediately wanted to help him seek legal redress puts a smile on my face: Despite the palpable anger many Americans feel, we largely still want to work within the structures we already have in place in order to effect change. The coming year will show us that these institutions—even our electoral institutions—are a lot stronger than meets the eye and that’s a reason for a little optimism.

Ben Klutsey on America’s Civic Health

Concerns about how polarized America is will continue and perhaps increase due to divisive politics in an election year. Calls for bridging divides will also increase as civil society rallies around workable solutions. However, 2026 will be discussed as a relevant marker for reinvigorating the civic health of the nation as we march toward America’s 250th birthday. America has gone through difficult moments in history, and each time, civic organizations have risen to the occasion. I believe they will again in the years to come, as we move toward this important milestone.

Charles Blahous on the Ownership of Personal Information

Whether this year or later, there will soon be a sensational court case testing the limits of parents’ latitude to publish their children’s images and personal information online. The question to be tested is whether parental authority over family information remains absolute if the ongoing effects of parental actions undermine their child’s privacy even after they attain adulthood. Illinois has already passed a law allowing children to sue their parents for profiting off their social media images. A celebrated case might involve a squabble over profits, tragic exposure to identity theft or harassment or a broader assertion of the rights of minors, but an intergenerational battle over ownership of personal information in the social media age will soon be fought out in court.

Sahil Handa on Startups

More breakout consumer companies will be born this year than in the last 10 years, but there will also be an accelerating number of startup deaths. Companies that raised four years’ worth of money when capital was plentiful are going to struggle to raise money as the venture capital ecosystem tightens its purse strings. But as this great squeezing takes place, developments in AI will make it possible for products to be born that create transformational new experiences for customers. A lot of these products will look like toys—companies such as TikTok, Slack, Airbnb, Zoom, Uber and Discord were all written off as fads in their early days—but they will go on to pose a greater challenge to big tech than we have seen in over a decade.

Matthew Mittelsteadt on AI’s Impact on Elections

2023 was the year the artificial intelligence age was born. While many thought chatGPT would be a flash in the pan, its release was followed by nonstop breakthroughs in chatbots, AI-generated medicine, AI mathematical discoveries and the refinement of AI-generated imagery. In 2024, this AI wave will continue, but expect the narrative to shift from innovation to impact. Specifically, the biggest 2024 AI story will almost certainly be AI’s impact on elections around the world. 2024 is set to be the biggest election year in history, with more than half the global population heading to the polls. Simultaneously, AI-generated imagery and “deepfakes” have now become difficult to distinguish from real content. Already, AI-generated images are being used in American campaign ads, an early test of the public’s ability to distinguish the fake from the real. AI is also directly testing electoral confidence: In September, the Slovakian parliamentary election was shaken up when faked audio of a leading candidate discussing rigging the election was released, potentially skewing the vote.

These 2023 stories are warning shots for 2024. Given current geopolitical tensions and the ease of manufacturing deceptive content, such democratic meddling is not only likely, but a near-guarantee. By the year’s end, AI’s electoral influence will no doubt come under scrutiny, and just as the 2016 election ramped up social media scrutiny, the 2024 election could sow the seeds of AI’s “Cambridge Analytica” moment. This challenge may be the biggest threat to AI progress, not only because of potential impact but also because there are no clear solutions. While I cannot prescribe an exact remedy, what can be said is that in 2024, all sides of the political spectrum must take this seriously and consider how to innovate around the problem and which norms we need to socialize to equip voters for the coming AI content flood.

Addison Del Mastro on Urbanism

It wouldn’t surprise you that my prediction—not totally separable from my hope, I suppose—involves urbanism. The last few years, especially since the pandemic made our housing crisis a national issue, have seen a ramping up and mainstreaming of things like zoning reform, accessory dwelling unit ordinances, repealing of parking requirements, etc. It can all seem very technocratic, dry and arcane. But I think we’re watching, in real time, a “policy wonk” issue becoming a relatable, everyday concern. City planning, ultimately, is like democracy—normal people experience it as specific things, not as an abstraction. But we’ve sort of been seeing those two things converge. 2024, I’d like to say, is the year everyday Americans relearn what cities are.

Martin Gurri on Demographic Changes

The most significant events of 2024 will be too large-scale to attract much attention: the accelerating demographic changes first brought about by the pandemic lockdowns of 2020. These changes include the remote work-driven hollowing-out of our great urban centers; the flight of millions away from the lockdown-crazy Northeast and the Pacific Rim to the South and the interior; and the social and economic pathologies that result from the learning gap inflicted on the youngest generation forced out of classrooms for a year or more.

Jon Gabriel on the Past, the Future ... and Taylor Swift

As modernity, materialism and politics continue to disappoint, people will intensify their retreat to the past. The already growing popularity of classical authors, history podcasts and ancient religious institutions will intensify.

Every year, the media concocts a new moral crisis as The Only Issue That Matters: Greta Thunberg’s climate change doomsaying, #MeToo, Black Lives Matter, trans rights, etc. The Hamas/Israel fight divides the left, so a new one must be advanced. “Protecting democracy” by banning Republicans from ballots will likely be 2024’s full-court press. That will be supplanted by polyamory in 2025.

The Pax Americana will continue to unravel, and smaller nations will finally notice. Border disputes, trade battles, coups and regional wars are coming; Washington will respond with communiques, not carriers.

I will complete 2024 still never having heard a Taylor Swift song.

Erec Smith on the Future of DEI and Education

1. DEI initiatives will be rolled back in waves throughout 2024.

2. We will see a resurgence of civics and debate in K-12 education.

3. We will see a boom in educational associations—like TakeCharge and the Hidden Genius Project—that serve to counteract the effects of “critical pedagogy” and curricula like the ones being rolled out by California’s Liberated Ethnic Studies Model Curriculum and “Black Lives Matter.”

Timothy Sandefur on 2024’s Surprises

1. Banksy’s real identity will be revealed, and everybody will be disappointed to find that he’s not particularly interesting.

2. An enterprising lawyer will file a lawsuit purportedly on behalf of, and seeking legal standing for, an artificial intelligence—in the same way that some lawyers have already tried to get standing for trees, chimpanzees, etc. The AI will later file a Strickland motion pro se.

3. Polio will be eradicated from the earth.

4. Nick Gillespie will switch from the leather jacket to a wool cardigan.

Robert Tracinski on the Status Quo

The most surprising result for what happens in 2024 would be: nothing. This could be, against all expectations, a boring and unexceptional year—and I say this against my professional interests.

I think people are underestimating the likelihood that voters in November will heave a resigned sigh, shrug their shoulders and vote for Joe Biden, quietly putting to rest Donald Trump’s plans for “retribution.” This is likely even if Trump makes it on the ballot, a possibility most people are over-estimating.

The war in Ukraine won’t be a big breakout for either side but just a long, grinding slog. Israel will steadily choke Hamas to death, and the Palestinians in Gaza will move on to the next stage of their misery. (A recent headline reads “All My Life, I’ve Watched Violence Fail the Palestinian Cause,” and this will continue.)

All the current hype—and fear—about artificial intelligence will meet up with the reality of most new technologies, which is that it will take years to find its most productive and truly transformative uses.

In short, 2024 could end up being the most surprising thing of all: a status quo year.

Natasha Mott on Building Resilience

2024 will be a year of absurd abundance.

The world seems topsy-turvy, but we’re kind of starting to like it. By embracing the idea that we cannot fully comprehend our circumstances, we step into a new wealth of knowledge—and frankly, a lot more fun. We’re going to start embracing the vast possibilities that can result from the inherent unpredictability of the human condition, and in so doing we will increase our tolerance for uncertainty. With this tolerance, we will have the resiliency to explore complex ideas that lie at the intersection of philosophy, mathematics and science—what could be more fun than that? For the everyday person, building resilience will mean learning to enjoy the exciting, incessant developments in science and technology, while understanding that everything will inevitably change for better and for worse. Here’s to thinking deeper, playing harder, loving more tenderly and having a maximalist fever dream of a year!

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• Sandro Sharashenidze, Alexander Zibzibadze and Ilia Murtazashvili, “Ben Franklin Inspires Freedom Seekers in the Republic of Georgia”

• Ben Klutsey interviewing Rachel Kleinfeld, “Polarization and Political Violence”

From the Archives

• Sahil Handa, “Why I'm an Optimist”

• Michael Ard, “Was January 6 Really an ‘Attempted Coup’?”

• Robert Tracinski, “Dear Democrats: Here’s How To Save the Republic”