January 5, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Poll: Biden leads DeSantis and Haley, but not Trump. Is Trump the only Republican who can win?
By Robert Romano
Underscoring the political moment the nation finds itself in, the latest polling from Economist-YouGov take Dec. 31, 2023 to Jan. 2, 2024, show that incumbent President Joe Biden is leading potential Republican challengers Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in nation polls, 44 percent to 41 percent, and 41 percent to 36 percent, respectively.
In the meantime, Biden is tied with former President Donald Trump in the same exact poll, 44 percent to 44 percent, raising the question for GOP primary voters, is Trump the only candidate who can win?
Among Trump’s advantages in the primary, first and foremost is that he has already served as president. Who could possibly have more experience than a former president? That’s tough to beat in any context, even by a current and former governor seeking to leverage their experience as a state executive.
Also in Trump’s corner are his dedicated supporters who might be Trump-only voters. That is, if Trump’s not on the ballot, they might stay home or vote for somebody else who is not the Republican nominee.
A similar phenomenon was seen in 1992 with Ross Perot, whose third party run indeed took votes from both Republican incumbent then-President George H.W. Bush and the winner of that race, Bill Clinton. But Perot also brought to the table many followers of his own, such that turnout increased from 1988 to 1992 by approximately 13 million, from 90.7 million to 103.7 million.
In that race, Perot garnered a whopping 19.7 million votes, or 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Some credit Clinton’s win to Perot, while others myself included tend to think Clinton would have still had an advantage in that race considering Republicans had held the White House for three consecutive terms and Bush had to contend with an onerous inflation and then recession on his watch.
The point is, Perot brought new voters to the table, just as Trump has brought new voters into the Republican Party, garnering 11 million more votes in 2020 than had voted for him in 2016, from 62.9 million to 74.2 million.
Considering that Republicans have not won the popular vote in a presidential election since 2004, bringing new voters into the fold is absolutely necessary to continue to remain competitive in the current two-party system.
The question for the alternative candidates, whether DeSantis, Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy, is how do they plan to get Trump voters to the polls in 2024 if Trump is not on the ballot? It’s a very important question, and one voters do not appear to be ignoring when asked for their preferences in the polls.
Without Trump on the ballot, on the margins, either their vote is up in the air, or else they’re just not going to vote, meaning should DeSantis or Haley prevail in the GOP primary — either because they actually won or because Trump was kept off the ballot through unconstitutional and illegal maneuvers by his Democratic opponents — they will have to make up a significant shortfall in the general election. And they know it.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/01/poll-biden-leads-desantis-and-haley-but-not-trump-is-trump-the-only-republican-who-can-win/
Cartoon: Follow Their Leader
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/01/cartoon-follow-their-leader/
Video: Trump Makes BOLD Move To Campaign In BLUE States
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aapaIKo0yLs
Video: Could Biden LOSE The Popular Vote To Trump In 2024?
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2esHK0tcdP8
Iowa GOP Voters Strongly Prefer Trump’s Policy Views, Say DeSantis is Closer than Haley by Two-to-One
By Manzanita Miller
With the Iowa Republican caucuses less than two weeks away, all eyes are on the first in the nation contest that will set the tone for the 2024 presidential election. Iowans caucus on Monday, January 15th, in the first GOP primary contest of the year, and New Hampshire quickly follows on January 23rd.
Iowans have a strong affinity for Former President Trump, with 538's average of Iowa polls showing Trump leading his closest competitor by 32 percentage points. Trump earns 50% of the vote, followed by Gov. Ron DeSantis with 18%, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with 16% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 6%. However, with DeSantis and Haley so close, those numbers could flip by election day.
Based on a comprehensive poll of GOP primary voters, even among Iowa Republicans who are on the fence or do not plan to support Trump, Iowans want a candidate who is similar to Trump and who holds the same values. A December CBS News YouGov poll of over 1,000 voters found 70% of Iowa GOP primary voters say if the GOP nominee is not Trump, they want the nominee to be similar to Trump.
A full 89% of GOP primary voters say they would like the nominee’s policies to align with Trump’s, even if a different individual were nominated. Evangelicals feel particularly strongly on this, with 92% saying they would like the GOP nominee to share Trump’s policy views.
This holds with how Iowa voters view Trump’s challengers, with the largest share of voters (49%) saying Ron DeSantis, who is in second place, is the most similar to Trump policy-wise. Voters say Ramaswamy is the second most similar to Trump (27%), and just 16% say Nikki Haley’s views are similar to Trump.
However, Iowa voters are somewhat split on whether they stand behind a Trump-like personality, with only 44% of voters saying if the GOP nominee were not Trump, that person should share Trump’s personality. Fifty-six percent of voters would like a GOP nominee with a personality type different from Trump.
Some Iowa voters are also concerned about the way Trump interacts with his political rivals. Just under half of Iowa voters (48%) say if the GOP nominee were not Trump, that individual should speak about political opponents in the same manner as Trump, while 52% say the GOP nominee should not speak about rivals like Trump does.
On individual policy issues such as deporting illegal immigrants, there is broad support for Trump’s political views. Eighty-five percent of Iowa GOP voters would support the GOP nominee deporting undocumented immigrants, and 77% would support the GOP nominee investigating government officials they suspect of political bias. Iowans also strongly support banning medical procedures that change a child’s gender (91%) and banning discussions about sexual orientation in public schools (86%) according to the poll.
A significant number of Iowa voters who say they are considering supporting Trump in the caucuses have not always been Trump supporters. Of those considering Trump, 26% say they were not always Trump supporters, and a full 39% of independents considering Trump say they haven’t always been supporters. A quarter of younger voters under age 45 and 27% of Evangelicals say they have not always been Trump supporters but are considering him now.
The results of the Iowa caucuses will set the stage for the rest of the GOP contests and could shrink the field of challenger candidates if they are unable to draw enough support. However, Iowa Republicans appear particularly loyal to Former President Trump, and even among those who are considering other options, Iowans largely support Trump’s policy views and platform.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/01/iowa-gop-voters-strongly-prefer-trumps-policy-views-say-desantis-is-closer-than-haley-by-two-to-one/