January 5, 2024

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It’s the final weekend of the NFL’s regular season, which means it’s the last chance for some players to hit major contract incentives. … The NBA hands out its first new load management fine. … Black Monday, and its financial impact, is looming. … And how much are Air Jordans really worth?

— David Rumsey [[link removed]]

On the Line This Weekend: the NFL Playoffs—and Millions of Dollars in Incentives [[link removed]]

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The final week of the NFL season is always a convoluted one as some teams fight for their lives while others rest starters in preparation for the postseason. But even for the least successful franchises of the year that have nothing to play for, players still have a lot on the line.

Week 18, which begins on Saturday, also represents the final opportunity for players to hit lucrative contract incentives tied to regular-season statistics. From securing a playoff spot to recording even part of a sack, here are five of the most notable (and attainable) marks on the line this weekend, each with their own rewards:

$2.2 million: Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

Goal: Make the playoffs ($1 million) and finish in the top 10 of four passing categories ($300,000 each) How close? Needs a victory over Carolina. Currently 6th in TD passes, 8th in yards, 9th in passer rating, and tied for 9th in yards per attempt

$2 million: Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith

Goal: Make the playoffs How close? Needs a victory over Arizona and a Green Bay loss, or a number of scenarios involving ties

$1.25 million: Kansas City Chiefs DE Chris Jones

Goal: 10 sacks this season How Close? Has 9.5 already

$750,000: Cleveland Browns DE Jadaveon Clowney

Goal: Nine sacks this season How close? Has 8.5 already (and already attained $1 million in bonuses for 5 and 7 sacks)

$750,000: Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins

Goal: 75 receptions, 1,050 yards, and 8 TDs (additional $250,000 each) How close? Has 68 receptions, 1,011 yards, and 6 TDs (already attained $1.5 million in bonuses in each category)

That’s almost $7 million alone between those five players, and there are dozens of other smaller incentives up for grabs for other players related to playing time and other stats. Now, it’s time to cash in.

Contract details are from Spotrac [[link removed]] and The Action Network [[link removed]].

#️⃣ ONE BIG FIG

NBA: That’s Four Too Many Breaks 🛌

$100,000

Amount the Nets were fined by the NBA on Thursday for violating the league’s player participation policy, after four starters all sat out the latter of back-to-back games last week. “We’ve been very clear with teams what we are trying to accomplish, and what we’d like to see,” Joe Dumars, the NBA’s executive vice president and head of basketball operations, told [[link removed]] ESPN of the fine, which marks the first punishment under the new policy. “And, if I’m just cutting to the chase, if you’re going to sit four starters at one time, that’s going to violate the policy and it violates the spirit of what we’re trying to do here.”

Got $7M to Spare? A Singular Collection of Air Jordans Can Be Yours [[link removed]]

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY

Sneakerheads, rejoice: A collection of Michael Jordan game-worn sneakers is going to auction and is projected to fetch $7 million to $10 million, showcasing the latest major sale in what remains a boom time for sports memorabilia and trading cards.

Sotheby’s is planning [[link removed]] an auction, starting Feb. 2, of an unprecedented collection of Jordan shoes dubbed the “Dynasty Collection.” The set contains a single Air Jordan shoe from each of the clinching games in Jordan’s six NBA Finals appearances, all autographed by the basketball icon. The shoes were originally given to former Chicago Bulls public relations executive Tim Hallam, who then sold them to a private collector, who in turn has retained Sotheby’s for the latest auction. Sotheby’s had planned to make the shoes available in a private sale before shifting to an auction.

The “Dynasty Collection” is predicted to smash the existing sneaker sales record of $2.2 million for a single pair of shoes, another pair of Air Jordans worn by His Airness during Game 2 of the 1998 NBA Finals. To that end, Sotheby’s is touting the set as “the most valuable and significant collection of Air Jordan sneakers ever brought to market.”

Memorabilia Rush

The “Dynasty Collection” sale furthers what has been an extended run of new records set in the last two years across the memorabilia business. Among the prominent deals in that time frame:

$12.6 million sale [[link removed]] in 2022 of a Mickey Mantle baseball card from 1952. $10.1 million sale in 2022 of a Jordan jersey from Game 1 of the 1998 NBA Finals. $9.3 million sale in 2022 of Diego Maradona’s famous “Hand of God” jersey from the 1986 World Cup. $7.8 million sale [[link removed]] last month of a collection of Lionel Messi jerseys from the 2022 World Cup. $7.25 million sale [[link removed]] in 2022 of a Honus Wagner baseball card from 1909. $7.2 million sale [[link removed]] last month of a Babe Ruth baseball card from 1914.

The run of record-breaking deals advances the concept of sports memorabilia and trading cards existing as an asset class of its own.

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Costly Turnover: NFL Coaches Command Millions, Even in Failure [[link removed]]

The Record

Sunday afternoon could be Bill Belichick’s last game with the New England Patriots, who host the New York Jets in a meaningless matchup for both clubs. With an annual salary now reported [[link removed]] to be $25 million, Belichick has already clinched the worst record (currently 4-12) of his 24-year tenure, during which he has been paid at least $200 million, by conservative estimates.

Despite reportedly receiving a “lucrative, multiyear” extension ahead of the season, according to NFL.com [[link removed]], Belichick could still be one of several coaches to lose their high-paying jobs on Black Monday, the first day after the regular season concludes. ESPN insider Adam Schefter said [[link removed]] there could be as many as 10 coaches ultimately fired this cycle.

As evidenced by the three vacancies already open, change isn’t cheap. Las Vegas will spend [[link removed]] $85 million on buying out head coach Josh McDaniels, general manager Dave Zeigler, and other coaches; Carolina will pay [[link removed]] head coach Frank Reich $27 million; and the Los Angeles Chargers owe [[link removed]] Brandon Staley at least $4 million.

Coaches in Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay are believed to be on the hot seat (particularly for whichever two don’t win the NFC South), as well as those in Chicago and Washington. Last season, there were five head coaching changes, and, as Schefter noted, there are typically 12-14 turnovers per two-year cycle, meaning this year could bring many more firings.

The Big Fish?

One of the hottest head coaching targets could be Jim Harbaugh, who was reportedly weighing [[link removed]] a 10-year, $125 million contract extension at Michigan to make him the highest-paid coach in college football. Harbaugh has already been linked to openings in Los Angeles [[link removed]] and Las Vegas [[link removed]], and he has hired a new agent, Don Yee, who has strong NFL ties.

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🎙️ They Said What?

“Look at this like the gold rush of the 1800’s. We found like 5% of the gold. … How many universities have NIL collectives? 150. How many schools are there in total? 1,100.”

—Brent Chapman, founder and CEO of myNILpay, on the untapped opportunities in the NIL landscape among smaller universities. To hear more about the ever-changing world of NIL, check out the latest episode of FOS Today.

🎧 Listen and subscribe on Apple [[link removed]], Google [[link removed]], and Spotify [[link removed]].

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Conversation Starters It has been a banner month of achievements for women’s sports. Check out [[link removed]] the growing list. Ever wondered what staring at an NFL defense looks like from a quarterback’s vantage point? Hard Knocks provided a peek inside Miami Dolphins signal caller Tua Tagovailoa’s helmet cam. Take a look [[link removed]]. For the first time, the NHL’s annual Winter Classic will not be the most-watched event of the regular season. This year saw the smallest [[link removed]] audience in the history of the game. Editor’s Picks WWE-UFC Parent Aims for Dominance Comparable to the NFL and FIFA [[link removed]]by Eric Fisher [[link removed]]New sales strategy showcases expansive vision of $21.4 billion merger. NCAA, ESPN Ink 8-Year, $920M Deal For 40 Championships [[link removed]]by Amanda Christovich [[link removed]]The broadcast package values the Division I women’s basketball tournament at $65 million annually. In the CFP Championship, Washington Represents the Conference It Helped Destroy [[link removed]]by Amanda Christovich [[link removed]]This summer, Washington agreed to leave the Pac-12 and even led a legal defense against the conference’s two remaining schools. DISCLAIMER

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