The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released our full analysis of the November Employment Report from the California Employment Development Department. This report goes beyond employment data to frame California’s current economic and budgetary landscape. It highlights key economic indicators also tied to the anticipated state budget deficit projected by the LAO, including the state’s stagnant GDP growth, high cost of living, population decline, and significant domestic migration. For additional information and data about the California economy visit www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

• State Budget Deficit: According to the LAO’s recent Fiscal Outlook, the state budget is projected to shift drastically from a $100 billion surplus in 2022 to a $68 billion deficit, mainly attributed to the impacts of minor shifts in private sector jobs and income on California’s volatile revenue structure.

• Economic Performance and Rankings: California’s real GDP displayed no growth throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023, lagging behind the US average and comparison states (such as Arizona and Texas). Despite marginally better performance in pandemic recovery, California ranks 21st in cumulative real GDP growth.

• Cost of Living and Population Trends: California’s rising cost of living made it the highest-cost state in 2022. The state’s population has declined for the third consecutive year, 75,400 people in 2023 alone, totaling around 538,000 over the three-year period, with significant domestic migration, particularly to Arizona, Texas, and Florida.

• Employment Challenges and Unemployment Rates: California’s job growth, especially in industries such as Social Assistance; Transportation and Warehousing; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; Health Care, has been moderate, with employment still below pre-pandemic levels. California faces the third-highest unemployment rate among states, and labor force participation lags behind the national average.