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WATCH THESE 9 LEADERS IN 2024
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
 
Happy New Year!
 
We are resolved to give 2024 a chance. Sure, it looks daunting. But because we breathe, we hope. For now.
 
But for politicians, we will put it this way: 2024 is poised to be a defining year.
 
We thought it a good time to list those we are watching most closely throughout this election year. For these nine, 2024 could be politically existential as they navigate difficult waters within their parties and with the nation as a whole.

• Speaker Mike Johnson. His tests come early, with a Jan. 19 deadline to fund much of the government and a potentially no-win decision on whether to pass more funding for Ukraine, along with a potentially complex border and immigration deal.
• President Joe Biden. The best thing Republicans who want to retake the White House have going for them is the unpopularity of the current president. Democrats continue to scratch their heads about the disconnect here. The country has a relatively strong economy, with inflation dropping and most Americans doing well on paper. But polling shows there is real unease about the economy and real doubts about Biden’s mental fitness — something Republicans have and will focus on more.
• Vice President Kamala Harris. If concerns about Biden’s abilities continue, so will the pressure and limelight on his running mate, the next in line to the presidency.  Her name and career are also on the line this year.
• Former President Donald Trump. Constitutional questions keep rising around his candidacy, and he faces 91 felony counts in four major criminal cases. While Trump remains well ahead in the Republican field, the past Congressional election revealed deep-seated concerns about Trump’s potential to undermine American democracy. (See also: Trump’s anti-democratic rhetoric.) He has defied political rules his entire career, but can he keep enough voters on his team?

• Mitch McConnell. The past year has prompted a series of questions about one of the longest-serving current senators, including about his health and ability to remain as Senate Republican leader.
• Kyrsten Sinema. The Arizona independent senator has been a central figure in the chamber, key to major compromises in the past few years. But a large crowd of Democrats want her out of office, seeing Sinema —along with West Virginia’s Joe Manchin — as a Republican apologist who blocked Democratic chances at breaking the filibuster and enacting federal protections for abortion after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. (The reality on that issue is not that simple, but she has enemies on the left.) The next decision is Sinema’s. Candidates for U.S. Senate in Arizona can file starting March 9 and must have completed paperwork by April 8.
• Bob Menendez. In contrast to Sinema, Menendez’s fate is not remotely in his own hands. The New Jersey senator faces four counts in a corruption and bribery case. He has pleaded not guilty. In 2018, he survived a previous set of corruption charges, which ended in a partial acquittal and partial hung jury. This latest case, which involves gold bars found in Menendez’s home, is sure to make headlines either way. His trial begins in May.
• Kari Lake. The former journalist lost her race for Arizona governor in 2022 by less than a percentage point. Lake earned nearly 1.3 million votes in that election, a total that would have been enough to win a Senate seat in 2018. No surprise: She is now running for U.S. Senate, in a race of critical importance to Republicans’ hopes of retaking the chamber. At the same time, from our reporting, she remains in the inner ring of contenders to be a potential running mate for Trump. Should she fail at both, it is hard to see where Lake — who has not held any political office yet — goes in the world of elected office. For few politicians does 2024 hold the possibility for higher heights or lower nadirs.
• Ronna McDaniel. The Republican National Committee chair has survived a rocky back-and-forth with Trump and his team, including his refusal to participate in GOP primary debates. From our reporting, the RNC is not the power and fundraising center it once was. Also, should there be any election-year issues that Republicans can’t blame on Democrats, McDaniel remains a clear target for dissatisfied members of team Trump.