(But before I do: one of the most important fundraising deadlines of our campaign is coming up on Sunday night, and right now we need to raise another $19,093.23 to keep on track. Will you chip in today so we can finish out the year as strong as possible?)
Almost everything we do in politics is based on guesswork. Until the last votes are counted in a race, you’re basically just making educated guesses about who your voters are, what message will best resonate with them, and how effectively your opponent is organizing.
Even that number I just gave you for our fundraising deadline is based on a guess. After looking at the data and talking with my finance team, that’s my best guess of how much more I need to raise by midnight on December 31 if I want to be in good shape to win this race.
But I don't really know. Not for sure.
I don’t know today what the exact price of printing yard signs is going to be in September.
I don’t know today how much my primary opponent is going to report for his year-end fundraising haul.
I don’t know today which Republican I’m going to be facing in November, or what attacks they’re going to make against me, or how aggressive we’ll need to be in responding to them.
All I can do is guess, because the only thing I can control in politics is what I do. I try not to let that worry me too much—but it also does mean that the only safe bet for us is to assume the worst.
I don’t know what my printing costs will be in the Fall—so I’d better plan on them being expensive.
I don’t know which Republican I’m going to be facing—so I’d better assume it’s the most competent of the bunch.
I don’t know how much my primary opponent is going to report raising—so I’m working like he’s going to loan himself half a million dollars and buy every TV spot during the Duke vs. Carolina game in February.
There’s a reason most politicians don’t sleep very well.
Because here’s the other thing, John: the reason these numbers keep good politicians up at night is because we know that there are people all over this state who are having a lot more trouble sleeping than any of us. They’re up, worried about if property taxes are going to price them out of their homes. They’re worried about whether their aging mother will be able to afford healthcare. They’re worried about whether their kids’ school will be able to give them a quality education.
And whether I win or lose—whether we have good people in our state government—will make the difference for those folks.
If we want to give our neighbors a state where they don’t have to worry so much, then my best guess has to be good enough. We have to be able to run a strong campaign that can show our neighbors from the Blue Ridge to the Outer Banks, in every place where folks have been left behind, that we understand the kitchen table issues that keep them up at night. That we can build a winning coalition and help them.
