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Friday, December 29, 2023

Please Note: Daybreak Insider will take a short break in honor of the New Year holiday. Look for the next edition of Daybreak to land on January 2, 2024. Happy New Year!

Gird Your Loins: 2024 Will Be a Year for the Ages

Starting with a raucous presidential election cycle that begins on January 15 in Iowa (Ballotopedia). Expect a whirlwind. Joseph Sternberg: What seems likely to be an awful U.S. presidential election in November is only part of the story. Hyperventilation about Donald Trump’s supposedly authoritarian instincts and well-founded concerns over Biden family corruption will motivate the major parties’ bases. But don’t lose sight of the global significance of this contest, given the security and economic threats and challenges confronting the winner (WSJ).

In 2024, 70 Other Nations Will Also Be Voting

Economist: Elections all over the world, for more voters than ever before, will put a spotlight on the global state of democracy. There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries that are home to around 4.2bn people—for the first time, more than half of the global population. But while there is more voting than ever, there is not necessarily more democracy: many elections will be neither free nor fair (Economist). More from Joseph Sternberg: The entirety of the EU will go to the polls in June to elect a new European Parliament…. Opinion polls suggest it could be a banner day for protest parties, particularly on the further right end of the spectrum, an electoral warning that might shake decision-making by frightened national governments of all ideological stripes. Don’t forget Asia. India, the world’s largest democracy, is likely to re-elect Narendra Modi as prime minister this spring. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may be less lucky. His Liberal Democratic Party is in the grip of a fundraising scandal, and although the next national election isn’t until 2025, he could be ousted as prime minister in a party leadership vote later in 2024 (WSJ).

Maine Joins the Effort to Keep Former President Trump Off the Ballot

Not to be outdone, Maine’s Democratic Secretary of State has joined the party: In a 34-page written decision, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, said Trump isn’t qualified to hold office because of his actions surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. “The events of January 6, 2021 were unprecedented and tragic,” Bellows wrote in the decision. “The evidence here demonstrates that they occurred at the behest of, and with the knowledge and support of, the outgoing President. The U.S. Constitution does not tolerate an assault on the foundations of our government” (WSJ). Colorado is already backing off on their effort, from a Thursday press release from Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold: Griswold confirmed that following the appeal, Trump would be included in the 2024 ballot unless the Supreme Court rules otherwise or declines to take up the case. Griswold maintained that she believed the state court was right in disqualifying Trump and urged the Supreme Court “to act quickly given the upcoming presidential primary” (Forbes).

Watching the Future of Terrorism After Hamas’s October 7 Attack

From the story: The future of terrorism in the Middle East could see something of a shift, at least temporarily, from a paradigm largely dominated by Salafi-jihadist groups (Sunni) to Shia groups sponsored by Iran. While Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) are both Sunni groups, there are other members of Iran’s axis of resistance, including Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Iraqi Shia militia groups, especially Kata’ib Hezbollah, that will continue to pose a major challenge to the region and beyond. Iran has been able to play the role of spoiler through its sponsorship of a vast network of terrorist proxies and will only be emboldened by the perceived success of Hamas’s October 7 attack into southern Israel. There are also political and security dynamics in the Middle East that could impact the trajectory of terrorism in the region (FPRI).

Israel Broadens Fight Against Hamas, Raiding Foreign Exchange and Money Transfer Agencies

Reuters: Israeli forces raided foreign exchange and money transfer agencies in Ramallah and other cities in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, seizing millions of dollars suspected of being intended to fund the Islamist group Hamas, the military said (Reuters). Times of Israel: Twenty-one people were arrested overnight by Israeli forces in the West Bank in connection with the transfer of funds to recognized Palestinian terror organizations…. During the course of the arrests in Ramallah, Jenin, Hebron, Tulkarem, Attil and Al-Bireh, forces seized around NIS 10 million ($2.8 million) from nine branches of the five money exchange companies, a statement says (Times of Israel).

Iran’s Production of Highly Enriched Uranium Nearing Weapons-Grade Levels

Fox News: Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60%, which is reaching the 90% needed for weapons, at its Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) in the Natanz complex and at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). Rafael Mariano Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in the report that Iran had “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023” (Fox News). It’s time to get serious about the Iran threat. Naftali Bennett: The Iranian regime is at the center of most of the Middle East’s problems and much of global terror. Yet inexplicably, almost nobody is touching it. For the past 45 years, the regime has been the source of endless war, terror and suffering throughout the world. I’ve come to realize that enough is enough. The evil empire of Iran must be brought down (WSJ).

Lessons of 2023

Ben Shapiro’s lesson number one: Lots of people do not think like we do…. When Hamas slaughters infants in their cribs, rapes women in front of their husbands and takes them captive back to Gaza, and tortures and murders civilians, that isn’t because of some outsized grievance. It’s because they do not have the same values as Westerners. Pretending that members of Hamas are simply freedom-loving people who seek material prosperity, quiet family lives and tolerance for those who think differently isn’t just wrong; it’s catastrophically wrong (Townhall). Jim Geraghty: I don’t want to be alarmist or gloomy, but it feels like a lot of long-simmering conflicts, both at home and abroad, are coming to a boil. The 81-year-old man sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office doesn’t always make a lot of sense these days, but Biden had a moment of lucidity and clarity in October when, shortly after returning from Israel, he said, “the decisions we make today are going to determine the future for decades to come” (National Review).

Speaker Johnson Pushes Back on Biden as Nation Faces “The Worst Border Crisis in Our Nation’s History”

Washington Examiner: The statement released by Mexico noted that the “delegations also discussed the benefits of regularizing the situation of Hispanic migrants who have been undocumented for several years and the DACA beneficiaries, who are a vital part of the US economy and society.” “At a time when America is experiencing the worst border crisis in our nation’s history, it is unconscionable to hear the Biden Administration’s announcement that Secretaries Mayorkas and Blinken discussed with the President of Mexico amnesty for illegal immigrants,” Johnson said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, responding to news of what was discussed during the meeting (Washington Examiner).

Young Americans Delaying or Denying Marriage

Pew Research: A record-high share of 40-year-olds in the U.S. have never been married, according to a Center analysis of the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data. As of 2021, a quarter of 40-year-olds had never been married – up from 6% in 1980. A line chart showing the share of 40-year-olds who have never been married from 1900 to 2021 by decade. The highest level is 2021, when 25% were never married. The prior high point was 1910, when 16% of 40-year-olds had never married. The share never married declines through the 20th century and reaches its lowest point in 1980, when 6% of 40-year-olds had never been married. In 2021, the demographic groups most likely not to have ever been married by age 40 include men, Black Americans and those without a four-year college degree (Pew Research). Ben Shapiro’s second lesson: The next generation is in serious moral peril. As a recent Harvard-Harris poll showed, 79% of young Americans (18-24) agree that white people are oppressors and people of color are the oppressed; a similarly frightening two-thirds of young people believed that Jews are part of the oppressor class and “should be treated as oppressors” (Townhall).

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The Path Forward in 2024

George Weigel: …it seems ever more the case that the path of civic and political renewal in these United States lies through spiritual and moral renewal (First Things).