An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms - The Economist   

Ask voters how they really feel and you find that the state of America’s union is unusually dismal. In September 2023, when the Pew Research Centre asked Americans to reflect on their country’s politics, 65% of respondents said that they were always or often exhausted; 55% said they were typically driven to anger; just 10% expressed frequent flashes of hope; only 4% found themselves regularly excited. When asked to describe politics in a single word, many plumped for divisive, corrupt, messy or bad. The coming year is likely to bring even greater malaise.

In the presidential campaign, all signs point towards a rematch of two old-timers: President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump. The main issue in the election will not be anything conventional, like the economy or foreign policy, but whether either man is fit to serve in the office. The year-long unpopularity contest will see Mr Biden argue that his predecessor is an existential threat to the republic. Mr Trump, unashamed by the attempted insurrection on January 6th 2021 or the many related criminal indictments he is fighting, will argue that the current president is too old and weak to deal with America’s problems. Both men will portray the other as a harbinger of the end of the country—and most members of their parties will subscribe to these competing eschatologies.

The current president will tout “Bidenomics” and argue that his massive spending on infrastructure has improved the lives of working people. Mr Trump will point to the discontent over inflation, which has eaten away at Americans’ real disposable incomes since Mr Biden took office, and the size of the national debt, which has also grown considerably. It is unlikely that Mr Trump’s policy proposals would improve the country’s fiscal position: he aims to leave entitlement programmes untouched while cutting taxes and triggering a trade war with the rest of the world through a 10% tariff on all imports. But both men correctly see the road to the White House as running through discontented working-class voters. Both of their economic pitches will aim to curry favour with this bloc, regardless of actual feasibility.

Full article here

The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election - The Economist   

Time was when American politics served up electrifying or at least surprising nominees to be president: Barack Obama, barely three years out of the Illinois state legislature, storming past Hillary Clinton; John McCain overcoming the scorn of conservatives; Donald Trump doing that thing he did in 2016; and even, lest you forget, Joe Biden, once counted out because of his age and past centrism, clearing the field in 2020.

Now comes the 2024 political cycle, a triumph of recycling. President Biden and former President Trump are preparing to star in a sequel most Americans do not care to see. That means that eyes will be on the vice-president, Kamala Harris, as well. Because Mr Biden is the oldest president ever, and would be 82 at his second inauguration, voters will scrutinise Ms Harris with unusual care.

The sequel does, however, promise some new plot lines: for the first time in presidential politics, courtroom action will attract more attention than campaign events, and may prove more decisive. Mr Trump, the first president or former president ever indicted, faces 91 felony counts in four cases and four jurisdictions. In Fulton County, Georgia, where he is charged over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, the trial will be televised and streamed live.

Full article here

The future is bright for Latin American startups - The Economist   

Startups have been a bright spot for Latin America in recent years. The number backed by venture capital more than doubled between 2020 and 2023 to over 2,500, according to LAVCA, an association for regional investors. In 2021 Latin American startups attracted around $16bn in investment, roughly as much as in the previous ten years combined.

Startup activity exploded during the pandemic. As elsewhere, people confined to their homes wanted to shop, consult doctors and much more without leaving the house. Many existing firms did not have online portals, or at least not user-friendly ones. It helped that SoftBank, a Japanese investment behemoth, had launched its first fund for Latin America in 2019, worth $5bn. Other funds followed suit.

Since then investors have calmed down. Global economic conditions have been a factor, too. In 2024 startup funding will probably stabilise at around its pre-pandemic level. But the number of startups will increase. More will find backing from venture capital, including local funds, which are now proliferating.

Full article here

Latin America could lead the way on green power - The Economist   

For centuries Latin America has been dogged by the resource curse. Its abundant natural resources have never translated into a lasting, society-wide ascent into broader prosperity. Many are hoping this will change with the global transition to clean energy. The region holds more than half the world’s lithium, used in electric-vehicle batteries; produces over a third of its copper, for electrical wiring; and churns out more than half its silver, crucial for solar panels. It is also home to around half of the world’s biodiversity and a quarter of its forests. In the coming years, regional leaders hope that Latin America can take off as a green power.

Its resources are not just material. Thanks to ample wind and sun, and strong rivers, more than a quarter of its primary energy currently comes from renewable sources, twice the global average. According to the Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based charity, 320 gigawatts of solar- and wind-power projects are expected to come online by 2030, an increase of 460% over existing solar and wind capacity. The infrastructure to transmit this energy is expanding, too. In 2024 Brazil will auction transmission lines which, together with two auctions in 2023, could bring in as much as $14bn.

Latin America could also become a significant low-cost producer of so-called “green” hydrogen, made from renewable sources, a clean alternative to fossil fuels for some uses. Brazil’s congress is soon expected to pass regulatory frameworks for offshore wind and green hydrogen, which could unlock billions of dollars in investment. A quarter of all green-hydrogen projects are in Latin America, the highest share globally. Chile plans to produce the world’s cheapest by 2030, and be among the top three exporters by 2040.

Full article here