[Newly released data from the Census Bureau points at big shifts
in state representation in the House after the 2030 census.]
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HOW CONGRESSIONAL MAPS COULD CHANGE IN 2030  
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Michael Li, Gina Feliz
December 19, 2023
Brennan Center for Justice
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_ Newly released data from the Census Bureau points at big shifts in
state representation in the House after the 2030 census. _

, Perry Spring/Getty

 

New population estimates released this week
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the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that the shifts in political power
after the 2030 census could be among the most profound in the
nation’s history.

Once a decade, the Constitution requires the reallocation of
congressional seats among states based on the results of the latest
census, a process called reapportionment. 

In the post-World War II era, the nation’s reapportionment story has
largely been one of a steady shift of political power to western and
the southern states at the expense of northeastern and midwestern
states. Postwar domestic migration and immigration, for example,
helped California more than double the size of its congressional
delegation between 1940 and 2010.

So far, the story this decade is shaping up to be different.

While southern and mountain states have continued to grow at a steady
clip since the Covid-19 pandemic, the rest of the country, including
one-time boom states like California, has seen mostly flat growth or
even population losses.

If these trends continue for the balance of the decade, California
would lose 4 of its 52 congressional districts in reapportionment —
only the second time the Golden State has ever lost representation.
New York, meanwhile, would lose three seats, Illinois two, and
Pennsylvania one, leaving all three states with congressional
delegations half the size they were in 1940.

By contrast, the South has emerged as this decade’s growth engine,
adding almost 3.9 million people and accounting for nearly all U.S.
population gains since 2020.

Four booming southern states stand out in particular: Texas, Florida,
Georgia, and North Carolina. These rapidly growing states by
themselves account for more than 90 percent of American population
gains since the 2020 census, with Texas and Florida alone accounting
for 70 percent of growth.

Based on the most recent trends, Texas would gain four seats and
Florida three seats in the next reapportionment, placing Texas within
striking distance of becoming the largest state, perhaps as early as
2040. Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee also
would each gain a new congressional seat, as would three mountain
states: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah.

These changes would solidify a shift in the regional balance of power.
Whereas in 1960, the South, Midwest, and Northeast regions all had
roughly the same population, by 2030, the South will be by far the
country’s most populous region and home to nearly 4 in 10 Americans.

And, although the Census Bureau won’t release updated figures on the
racial and ethnic components of population change until next July, it
is all but certain that in most of the country’s increases in
population will be driven largely by growth in communities of color. 

Of course, the magnitude of reapportionment changes might not end up
being as large as currently projected, given that it is still
relatively early in the decade. For example, the significant migration
of recent years to southern and mountain states might slow as higher
interest rates and rising housing costs impact the willingness or
ability of people to move. In similar fashion, a return of
international immigration to pre-2017 levels — or something higher
— could help stabilize populations in states like California and New
York, both of which have seen large outbound migrations of native-born
residents of all races to other states in recent years. There are
signs that some of this may be happening: the most recent census
figures for the period between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, show a
decrease in the heightened outbound migration of the pandemic years.

But the general trend lines seem fairly clear. Barring something
completely unforeseen, the 2020s are shaping up to be the South’s
decade. And that, in turn, will have major ramifications for fair
representation and fair maps.

_MICHAEL LI serves as senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s
Democracy Program, where his work focuses on redistricting, voting
rights, and elections. Prior to joining the Brennan Center, Li
practiced law at Baker Botts L.L.P. in Dallas for ten years. He was
the author of a widely cited blog on redistricting and election law
issues that the New York Times called “indispensable.” He is a
regular writer and commentator on election law issues, appearing on
PBS Newshour, MSNBC, and NPR, and in print in the New York
Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Roll Call, Vox, National
Journal, Texas Tribune, Dallas Morning News, and San Antonio
Express-News, among others._

_In addition to his election law work, Li previously served as
executive director of Be One Texas, a donor alliance that oversaw
strategic and targeted investments in nonprofit organizations working
to increase voter participation and engagement in historically
disadvantaged African American and Hispanic communities in Texas._

_Li received his JD with honors from Tulane Law School and an
undergraduate degree in history from the University of Texas at
Austin._

_GINA FELIZ is a Program Associate in the Democracy Program, where she
focuses on voting rights and redistricting. Prior to joining the
Brennan Center, Gina worked as a Development Assistant at the Housing
Development Fund in Stamford, CT._

_Gina graduated with honors from Princeton University in 2022 with a
bachelor’s degree from the Princeton School of Public and
International Affairs, and a certificate in African American Studies.
For her undergrad independent work, Gina researched the civil and
criminal legal systems, focusing on court fees & fines and the
criminalization of immigration. While at school, Gina was an organizer
for a student group advocating alongside and on behalf of
justice-impacted individuals in the NJ area; volunteered as an
instructor for English-as-a-Second-Language Students in Trenton; and
interned at Legal Services of New Jersey._

_THE BRENNAN CENTER for Justice is a nonpartisan law and policy
institute._

_We strive to uphold the values of democracy. We stand for equal
justice and the rule of law. We work to craft and advance reforms that
will make American democracy work, for all._

_Donate to The Brennan Center
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* U.S. Congress
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* reapportionment
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* census
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* political power
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* representation
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