Regardless of whether you celebrate Christmas or not, the holiday gives us all an opportunity to hit pause, spend time with family and friends, and reflect on the things that matter most in life. It’s a joyous time of year and one which I cherish. I hope you, too, were able to enjoy the holiday!
I’m going to be using this week and next to finalize my annual set of predictions which I plan to publish on or around January 5th. If by chance you missed last week’s Navigating Uncertainty, I’d encourage you to review it as it has several polls seeking your input on developments you think are important to watch over the next five years.
It’s important to note that my annual set of developments to watch are really intended to be catalysts to encourage all of us to think differently about what the future may hold. Because, if we’re honest with ourselves, most predictions miss the mark! As I noted in Think For Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence:
Despite the mixed (at best) track record of those in the prediction business, we humans seem to have an insatiable appetite to consume their prognostications about the future. Nobel Laureate Ken Arrow captured the desire for predictions quite eloquently in recalling his work for the US Army Air Force. Despite concluding that the weather predictions upon which the superiors relied were entirely useless (i.e. statistically random, no better than a guess), he was rebuffed, told that “The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good; however, he needs them for planning purposes.”
As comical as that statement sounds, I find it quite useful—and helpful. The blunt reality is that accuracy cannot and should not be the criteria upon which to evaluate thinking about the future. Usefulness, I propose, is a far better standard. Just as it’s impossible to evaluate the quality of a decision process by its outcome, so too is it unproductive to evaluate the quality of a prediction by its accuracy. Good processes sometimes result in bad outcomes, something known colloquially as a bad break. Likewise, bad processes sometimes result in good outcomes, also known as dumb luck. But over time, good processes should result in a higher probability of good outcomes and bad processes should result in a higher probability of bad outcomes.
If we apply this logic to predictions about the future, we quickly learn to appreciate the value they may provide in helping us think differently. They can help nudge us away from our default positions and widen our view of the possibilities ahead.
It’s in that spirit that I’ve published my annual predictions on the future five years. For those with time on their hands over the holiday week, here are links to the last five years of predictions.
I’m tentatively targeting the publication of 24 Global Developments To Watch Over The Next Five Years on or around January 5th. And, as I have previously discussed, that will likely be the last free post before I convert Navigating Uncertainty into a twice-a-month paid newsletter. More information will come next week.
Further, as I promised last week, I wanted to share a glimpse of my forthcoming book, The Making of a Generalist. I’m literally finalizing the text this week and the book will immediately be made available for pre-order once I’ve completed the layout and final proofing. Stay tuned for more details but in the interim, here’s the book’s cover:
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Vikram Mansharamani is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of two books, Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.
