The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released our initial analysis of the November Employment Report from the California Employment Development Department. For additional information and data about the California economy visit www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

Nonfarm jobs showed a gain in November, although coming in at a more restrained 9,300 and the October gains revised down by 5,700 to a still respectable 34,500.  Information gained as Motion Picture related jobs returned to pre-strike levels.  Tech jobs also reported some gains, counterbalancing the continuing series of layoff announcements coming from this industry.  While both showed growth in the unadjusted data, Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities reported only a modest increase in the adjusted series reflecting the general slowdown in trade activity compared to previous years’ seasonal bumps, and Retail Trade posted a loss in the adjusted data that reflects the substantial shift to online sales.  Job gains, however, were dominated by the lower wage end, in particular continued expansion of government-paid very low wage jobs in Individual & Family Services.

Employment—the number of people working—dropped again for the 5th month in a row, showing a loss of 35,400 for the month and a total drop of 147,700 for the five-month period.  Combined with a growing number of unemployed, weakness in the labor force has now essentially eliminated the previous labor shortage conditions that had throttled down the state’s job expansion potential.  Labor supply (number of employed and unemployed) has now fallen below labor demand (employed plus job openings), reversing the conditions previously favorable to stronger wage growth to a situation where increasing unemployment becomes more likely.

Using the unadjusted series to provide a more detailed look at jobs by industry wage level compared to the pre-pandemic peak, the lower wage industries continue to lead while the higher wage industries have lagged since September.  The medium-wage industries remain close to the overall nonfarm jobs trend.

Compared to the pre-pandemic peak in February 2020, California’s sustained weak employment recovery pushed its ranking down to 5th worst among the states and DC.

California’s November job performance came in 9th highest among the states.  Florida led with 30,900, followed by Texas with 26,800. Compared to the pre-pandemic peak, California has now gained 485,900 nonfarm jobs, still in third behind Texas (1,123,600) and Florida (780,400).  Adjusted for size, California again ranked 21st highest, just below the US average.

In spite of continuing tech industry layoffs, the Bay Area again posted a positive jobs growth in November, and Los Angeles Region again showed higher jobs numbers.  More critical to the state budget numbers and expected deficit, overall jobs recovery since the pandemic in the budget-driving Bay Area remains weak.

Because the data in the table is seasonally adjusted, the numbers should be considered as the total for the counties in each region rather than the regional number.  This job series also is not available for all areas in California.

Unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) compared to pre-pandemic February 2020 are shown below.

Population loss especially in Los Angeles Region and Bay Area continue to hold down overall employment levels.

In October, California contained just over half (13) of the MSAs among the 25 urban areas with the worst unemployment rates, including the worst region of the country in El Centro MSA (Imperial County).  Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA fell just on the other side of this group, tying with three other MSAs—including Vallejo-Fairfield MSA—at #350.  San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande MSA and Napa MSA were the highest ranked California urban areas, tying with 14 other MSAs at #205 (3.3%).