Births now outpacing deaths in over half the states. Learn more in this America Counts story.





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America Counts: Stories Behind the Numbers

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Continued Decrease in Mortality Brings Natural Increase Closer to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Births in 2023 once again began to outpace deaths in over half of U.S. states as mortality declined, inching closer to pre-pandemic levels, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released today.

Natural increase (more births than deaths) had been on the decline since 2020 and more states had natural decrease (more deaths than births) in the first years of the decade than at any point in the 2010s, driven largely by mortality hikes combined with smaller decreases in births.

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Areas with large older populations often experience natural decrease and shrinking populations in the absence of migration. Prior to 2020, natural "increase" for the United States hovered around one million a year. It began declining in 2020 but this national trend obscured widespread natural "decrease" at the state level since the beginning of the decade.

In the 2010s, only four states (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia) consistently had more deaths than births. But from 2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022, half of "all" states experienced natural "decrease". While 19 states rebounded slightly, 15 ? mostly in the South ? experienced natural decrease during all estimates periods between April 1, 2020 (Census Day) and July 1, 2023.

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* Measuring births and deaths
* U.S. births and deaths
* State-level natural decrease
* The impact of COVID-19





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U.S. Population Trends Return to Pre-Pandemic Norms as More States Gain Population

Percent Change in State Population [ [link removed] ]

Population trends are returning to pre-pandemic norms as the number of annual deaths decreased last year and migration reverted to patterns not seen since before 2020, according to the new Vintage 2023 population estimates [ [link removed] ] released today by the Census Bureau.

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