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Opinion | Beware Economists Who Won’t Admit They Were Wrong -    

From an economic point of view, 2023 will go down in the record books as one of the best years ever — a year in which inflation came down amazingly fast at no visible cost, defying the predictions of many economists that disinflation would require years of high unemployment.

Why should we care? This isn’t about scoring personal points — although I’m a big believer in owning up to your past errors — it’s how you learn, and it’s also good for the soul. What I’m concerned about is that clinging to a view of the economy that has been disproved by recent events makes it more likely that we’ll mess this up, putting the economy through a recession that, it turns out, we didn’t and don’t need to control inflation.

How amazing has the economy been? As recently as March, the Federal Reserve committee that sets monetary policy projected that we’d end this year with 4.5 percent unemployment and with the Fed’s preferred “core” measure of inflation running at 3.6 percent. Last week, the same group projected year-end unemployment of only 3.8 percent and core inflation at only 3.2 percent. But actually the news is even better, because that last number is inflation for the year as a whole; over the six months ending in October, core inflation was running at 2.5 percent, and most analysts I follow believe that when November data come in later this week, it will show inflation down to around 2 percent, which is the Fed’s long-run target.

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