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By Laurie Goering [[link removed]] | Climate Change Editor

One step forward, one step back?

The COP28 climate talks ended with a first: After nearly three decades, countries finally agreed to support moving the global economy away from fossil fuels.

Specifically, they called for “ transitioning away from fossil fuels [[link removed]] in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner … so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

The question now is: Do they mean it? And if so, can they achieve it?

Some early indications - including a lack of finance [[link removed]] to do the job - are worrying.

Workers prepare for oil and gas exploration at the Invictus mine in Mbire district in Mashonaland Central province north of the capital Harare, September 13, 2023.REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo

Just hours after the end of the summit, Brazil put on the auction block 603 oil and gas concessions [[link removed]], some of them in the Amazon, with Shell, Chevron and Brazil state oil company Petrobras snapping up a significant share.

That raises real questions about Brazil’s commitment to pull the plug on fossil fuels anytime soon, activists told correspondent Andre Cabette Fabio.

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the COP28 deal, which his country backed, would not limit his export-leading nation’s ability to sell its oil [[link removed]].

“The issue of immediate and gradual disposal (of fossil fuels) has been buried,” he told Saudi-owned television network Al Arabiya.

Workers, cows and palm oil

Still, there are positive signals too.

The summit, for instance, saw progress in making the transition away from fossil fuels fairer for those who depend on them for jobs, something key to overcoming opposition to the energy switch and making sure workers are not left behind.

A worker carries a basket filled with coal to load it onto a truck at a coal yard in an industrial area in Mumbai, India, November 30, 2017. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade

The U.N.’s “ Just Transition Work Programme [[link removed]]”, agreed at COP28, could lay the groundwork for solid help for workers and communities hit by green changes, including through retraining and social support systems, writes deputy climate editor Megan Rowling.

The world’s main palm oil industry watchdog [[link removed]], meanwhile, soon to mark 20 years since its creation, is expanding its focus beyond cutting deforestation to include measures to help its members cut climate changing-emissions, correspondent Michael Taylor found.

And Brazil, even as it sells new oil concessions, is looking to halt the damage being done to the Amazon and other crucial natural carbon sinks by raising cash to restore exhausted pasture and farmland [[link removed]] – one way to potentially stem further forest losses.

1.5C still in sight?

Many scientists, negotiators and activists warn that the COP28 decision, with no enforcement mechanisms, no clear timelines for action and insufficient finance for poorer nations, is unlikely to hold the world to the relatively ‘safe’ limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius [[link removed]] of global warming.

“We have made an incremental advancement over business-as-usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support,” said Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator at COP28 for the Pacific island nation of Samoa, one of many in the region threatened by rising seas.

United Arab Emirates Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber attends the plenary, after a draft of a negotiation deal was released, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 13, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky

U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell warned the deal left the world on track for just under 3C (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming this century, which “still equates to massive human suffering”.

But others said COP28’s qualified step away from fossil fuels was just that – a first but critical step.

When it comes to commitments to transition away from fossil fuels, “ the genie is never going back in the bottle [[link removed]],” said Mohamed Adow, of Power Shift Africa. “Future COPs will only turn the screw even more on dirty energy.”

Thanks for reading this year. If you’re looking to catch up on anything you might have missed, you can see all of our COP28 coverage here [[link removed]]. We’re taking a break next week but will be back in early 2024.

Take care,

Laurie

This week's top picks Brazil wants farmers to help save the Amazon. Will it work? [[link removed]]

At COP28, Lula detailed his plan to revive degraded pasture land, aiming to fight deforestation and boost farming at the same time

Indonesia's 'fly guy' finds grubby fix for Jakarta's food waste [[link removed]]

With Jakarta's only landfill near bursting point, an Indonesian maggot farmer has a sustainable solution for the city's food waste

Why the COP28 deal on fossil fuels will push a ‘just transition’ [[link removed]]

As governments agree to move away from coal, oil and gas for energy, countries and workers who depend on them will need support to go green

Put a higher price on Africa's nature, says bank chief [[link removed]]

In a green global economy, Africa's carbon sinks and deposits of key minerals should get an upward revaluation, says AfDB’s Akinwumi Adesina

Without fairness, fossil fuel phase-out flounders at COP28 [[link removed]]

Developing countries with big oil, gas and coal reserves say they need more financial support to leave them in the ground

COP28 gave us something we can work with, but it is not enough [[link removed]]

Keeping the planet within ‘safe’ warming limits will require dealing with other planetary boundaries being crossed

Can a new EU law help communities hold businesses to account? [[link removed]]

A pioneering directive paves the way for people globally to take firms to court for environmental damage and human rights abuses

Read all of our coverage here [[link removed]] Editor's pick [[link removed]] COP28: What’s ahead for climate change action? [[link removed]]

This year's climate summit faces some big questions. Our global team of correspondents and our reporting team on the ground in Dubai are seeking out answers to those questions and many more – both during COP28 and beyond it.

[[link removed]]Discover more Nature [[link removed]] Climate Risks [[link removed]] Net Zero [[link removed]] Just Transition [[link removed]] Climate Justice [[link removed]] Green Cities [[link removed]] Thank you for reading!

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