It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

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A CLOSER LOOK AT BORDER NUMBERS AND THE UKRAINE DEBATE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Whether the U.S. gives more money to Ukraine and Israel now depends on the decisions it makes on its own border security and immigration.

Republicans in Congress — from their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell ([link removed]) of Kentucky, to their negotiatIon leader, Sen. Jim Lankford ([link removed]) of Oklahoma — have doubled down on their refusal to pass any aid money for Ukraine and Israel without significant changes in border policy.

This was sparked by President Joe Biden’s request for a $106 billion package ([link removed]) that ties the three issues together, hoping to sell about $61 billion in funding for Ukraine by adding border security dollars to the pot.

But Republicans have demanded policy changes that go beyond unauthorized border crossings as well. Some of their asks over the past few weeks, per sources involved in talks, include:

1. The “credible fear” screening. Republicans want to raise the standard ([link removed]) for allowing asylum seekers into the country while their claim is processed. It is not illegal to seek asylum ([link removed]) . Ultimately asylum seekers must prove they have a “credible fear” that they will be persecuted for something innate to who they are, like their race, religion, gender or political beliefs. Immigration advocates worry that increasing that standard, the first step in the asylum process, would make it more difficult for those seeking protections
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Photo by John Moore/Getty Images
2. Parole. The United States can offer immigration “parole,” ([link removed]) which allows people to temporarily reside in or enter the country. This can be for an emergency or disaster in their country. Recently, the Biden administration has applied this to specific large groups, including Ukranians, some Afghans, Venezuelans, Cubans and others. Republicans would like to end the use of this for large groups and potentially end it almost entirely.

3. A transit ban. Republicans also want to ban people from applying for U.S. asylum if they have traveled through a third country where they could have sought that protection. The idea is that the person should apply for asylum in those other countries. The Biden administration has also moved to limit these kinds of applications but does allow them, especially if the person applies for an appointment through "CBP One," a Customs and Border Protection mobile app. (Though the administration has been sued ([link removed]) over the app, and it is being litigated in courts.)

4. The expedited removal process. Conservatives are pushing to massively expand a policy created in 1996 whereby undocumented people who are found by lower-level immigration officers within 14 days of arrival and within 100 miles of the Mexican or Canadian border are subject to faster removal from the country. Republicans want to make that process apply to the entire country ([link removed].) . Critics argue that this process does not give people a chance to make their case, through things like a regular hearing before an immigration judge. Expedited removal, additionally, means that officers can ask for documents on the spot and if someone is unable to prove their status, they can immediately go into a removal process. This is something that would dramatically change the nature of immigration enforcement and detention,
making it more focused on the interior of the country.

But advocates and Democrats say these proposed changes do not address an overarching problem — a backlog of more than 2 million cases ([link removed]) pending in the U.S. immigration court system. They assert these changes would likely not work to stop migrants from arriving and that they would lead to dangerous types of enforcement across the country, some of them prone to error, which could cause documented immigrants and people with legitimate claims to be swept up into dragnets of deportation.

Why border numbers are a big part of this debate

Republicans have pointed to the southern border ([link removed]) as a major security concern. High border numbers are being cited repeatedly in this debate, but a closer look at the data tells a more complex story ([link removed]) .

We noticed that a main statistic used to describe the flow of migrants is rarely put in proper context.

So let’s take a look.

The statistic is called “encounters.” Headlines and stories often tout the record increase in migrant encounters with the U.S. Border Patrol.

In the past few years, CBP has created a data hub online. You can find that here ([link removed]) . (There is also a different webpage for this data here ([link removed]) .)

Let’s look at the portal central to current debate, where CBP puts data for encounters at the southwest border ([link removed]) .

The most recent data, for October of this year, shows a total of 240,988 encounters at the southern border. (For those following along, scroll down to the table that reads, “U.S. Border Patrol and Office of Field Operations Encounters FY2022.”)

But notice that it is divided into categories.

More than 52,000 encounters were by the Office of Field Operations, or “OFO.” Those reflect people who come through legal ports of entry, including those applying using the CBPOne app.

A different number — 188,778 — shows those who are crossing the border and are found somewhere other than a legal entry point. That figure is generally known as “apprehensions,” and it shows the number of migrants handled by border patrol agents.

The New York Times also pointed out in October ([link removed]) that the number of migrant arrests made outside official ports is down by about 200,000 compared to last year’s figures.

Thus “encounters” do not always mean “apprehensions.”

The U.S. immigration system is overwhelmed with migrant entries — encounters — but, as the Official of Field Operations data shows, the system is processing tens of thousands of people through legal means.

Still, Republicans argue that the issue goes beyond these statistics because some migrants can access temporary entry to the country for years while immigration courts consider their status and possible asylum claims.

Regardless, as stories abound about the surging numbers of the border, make sure to take a closer look. Border “encounters” are very different than border “apprehensions.”
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More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: International criticism grows ([link removed]) as Israel says it’s preparing for a long fight in Gaza.
* One Big Question: A recent investigative report finds that Israel is deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in Gaza ([link removed]) , with the goal of ramping up civilian pressure on Hamas. What did it find? (Meanwhile, Biden also took a tougher stance ([link removed]) on Israel on Tuesday.)
* A Closer Look: Donald Trump's support now tops 50 percent in Iowa. Time is running out for the other GOP presidential contenders to make the race competitive ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: Biden’s latest poll numbers are prompting concerns among Democrats. NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss ([link removed]) .

How has PBS NewsHour coverage has been useful in your life or work?
Please tell us your stories here. ([link removed])

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ZELENSKYY’S PLEA TO WASHINGTON

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Watch Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s remarks in the player above.

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Washington, D.C., on Tuesday to make a last-minute plea ([link removed]) to Congress for billions more in aid for the war with Russia.

“It’s very important that by the end of this year we can send [a] very strong signal of our unity to the aggressor,” Zelenskyy said, with President Joe Biden standing beside him.

Hours before the joint news conference with Biden, the Ukrainian president spoke with senators on Capitol Hill in a closed-door meeting ([link removed]) .

The stakes are high. The U.S. has previously provided Ukraine $111 billion in aid since Russia’s invasion of the country, which included funding for U.S. defense and intelligence operations. But the U.S. is running out of money to fund Ukraine, as Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young warned in a letter ([link removed]) to lawmakers last week. A halt to that funding would stop the flow of U.S. weapons and equipment and “kneecap” Ukraine on the battlefield, she wrote.

Biden has pushed congressional lawmakers to approve a $110 billion package that includes $61.4 billion in supplemental aid for Ukraine. But this is the final week ([link removed]) of work ([link removed]) for Congress before they part for the holidays, and the prospects for additional funding look grim ([link removed]) .

In his remarks, Biden blamed Republicans for the congressional inaction over Ukraine aid, adding that Russia’s Vladimir Putin is “banking” on a U.S. failure to provide that supplemental funding.

“We must, we must, we must prove him wrong,” the president said.

HOW MANY AMERICANS SUPPORT UKRAINE AND ISRAEL FUNDING?
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Washington to ask lawmakers for more funding to fight Russia, 36 percent of Americans say in a forthcoming PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll that the U.S. should not authorize more funds for war in Ukraine or Israel. That includes 39 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of independents and 24 percent of Democrats.

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Image by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

Another 32 percent of Americans say the U.S. should authorize funding for wars in both Ukraine and Israel. That includes 41 percent of Democrats, 32 percent of independents and 26 percent of Republicans.

American attitudes over funding wars in foreign lands remained statistically frozen over the last month, according to the latest poll, which was conducted ahead of Zelenskyy’s visit ([link removed]) and will be released Wednesday, Dec. 13 at 5 a.m. Eastern.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Ali Schmitz, @SchmitzMedia ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Saturday marks the 250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, when colonists protesting taxation without representation threw 340 chests of British tea into the Boston Harbor.

Commemorative events will be held throughout Boston ([link removed]) to mark the moment that helped spark the American Revolution.

While now the protest is held in high regard, some of the nation’s founding fathers had concerns over how it was handled, saying demonstrators may have gone too far. That included one famous founding father who sent a letter to several Patriot leaders, encouraging them to repay the East India Company for the destroyed tea. He was ignored.

Our question: Which founding father sent that letter?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which U.S. president helped trigger the Gold Rush of ‘49? Who was it?

The answer: James Polk ([link removed]) . In an annual address to Congress in 1848, the 11th U.S. president confirmed that gold had been discovered in the California territory. The following year, scores of gold-seekers — better known as the “Forty Niners” — poured into the area.

Congratulations to our winners: Barry Weinstein and Sherman Eagles!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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