- Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) giving an amazing sales pitch for a second Biden term.

While polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, President Biden appears to be facing increasingly-worrying odds going into 2024.
 

• Despite (or perhaps aided by) the deluge of legal challenges he faces, disgraced former president Donald Trump has pulled ahead of President Joe Biden in two critical swing states: Michigan and Georgia. Majorities in both states hold a negative view of Biden’s job performance, policy positions, and cognitive acuity, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. 
   

• Biden won Georgia by a razor-thin margin in 2020. He carried Michigan by a wider margin, but now, his numbers there look even worse than in the Peach State. President Biden now trails Trump by a staggering ten points among Michigan voters in a potential 2024 head-to-head match-up. Michigan is home to one of the nation’s largest populations of Arab-Americans—a group that voted for Biden overwhelmingly and helped him win in 2020, and has felt abandoned by the White House’s unwavering support of Israel in the conflict that began on October 7. 
   

• President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict continues to face disapproval from the majority of Americans. That said, only 4 percent of Americans polled named the conflict as the most important problem facing the United States. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, 27 percent of Americans named inflation to top that list, followed by 20 percent who named immigration and the border, and 16 percent who said the “state of democracy.”

President Biden faces a particular challenge when it comes to the economy: although many indicators signal growing economic strength, the voting public doesn’t seem to feel it. 
 

• Pollsters and economists are scratching their heads, as there has never been such a wide canyon between the health of the economy and public perception. This could be in part explained by the loss of pandemic-era government aid, the fact that prices of many essential goods have remained high due to corporate price gouging, and/or persistent messaging from right-wing and center-right media that “Bidenomics has failed” despite evidence to the contrary. Friday’s unemployment report showed that unemployment has dropped to 3.7 percent while, in a little over a year, inflation has dropped from 9.1 percent to 3.2 percent without causing a recession, which is something of a miracle. The President’s messaging on the campaign trail has shifted to reflect the stark realities of the public’s perception of the economy, but that has done little to move the needle. 

• Meanwhile, with just five weeks until the first GOP presidential nominating primary, Donald Trump has not only held on to his staggering lead, he’s even expanded it. A new NBC News/Des Moines Register poll shows that Trump now has 51 percent first-choice support from Iowa caucus voters. White evangelicals and first-time voters are fueling his lead, bolstered by three-quarters of Republicans who believe Trump can defeat Biden despite the former’s myriad ongoing legal challenges. Even more concerning, the poll finds that Trump is enjoying more enthusiasm and commitment from his supporters than any of his rivals going into the January 15 caucuses. 

The polling numbers President Biden faces are alarming, and demonstrate that he has his work cut out for him in 2024. Democratic strategists are worried that his reelection effort has been too slow in building campaign infrastructure in key swing states, a problem he needs to remedy fast. Now, back to hyperventilating into a paper bag!



(But seriously, if you're as scared of these numbers as we are and want to get involved, head over to Vote Save America to plug in between panic sessions)

Last week on Pod Save America, Strict Scrutiny’s Melissa Murray joined the guys to talk about the latest Trump trial updates, what Trump’s second term might look like and the latest chaos to rock Congress. If you’re brave enough to listen, you can check out that episode out now on the Pod Save America Feed.

A new analysis of shell fragments found in southern Lebanon indicates that Israel used U.S-supplied white phosphorus munitions on civilians in an attack on October 16. The attack injured at least nine civilians,  and Amnesty International and other human rights organizations said the incident should be investigated as a war crime. Use of white phosphorus against civilians violates international law, as the waxy chemical substance can stick to skin causing potentially fatal burns and chronic respiratory damage. The attacks incinerated at least four homes, according to residents, and three of the people injured were hospitalized. Production codes found on the shells in Dheira, a Lebanese town near the Israeli border, were stamped with codes matching U.S. military categorizations. 

Following the publication of The Washington Post report, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated on monday that the White House is “concerned” about the use of white phosphorus munitions and that they will be “asking questions and trying to learn more.” Wow, thanks for that, pal!

Disgraced former president Donald Trump is really testing those court-mandated gag orders! He attacked his former Attorney General Bill Barr—a witness in his federal election interference case—on Saturday night at a gala in New York. 

DOJ Special Counsel Jack Smith asked the Supreme Court to expedite the decision on Trump’s immunity from criminal prosecution on Monday in order to keep the case on schedule. 

Trump also made an 11th-hour decision not to testify at his New York civil fraud trial on Monday. 

Twitter CEO (yes I still refuse to call it “X”) Elon Musk announced that the account of notorious hate monger and right-wing conspiracy theorist Alex Jones would be reinstated based on an unscientific “poll” he posted on his own account about whether or not to let Jones spread his bile again. 

After getting the boot from Fox News, Tucker Carlson has launched a paid subscription site as he continues to record video content from his…garage(??). 

Allies of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny reported on Monday that he has been removed from the penal colony where he has been imprisoned since last year and his current whereabouts are unknown. 

Former Vice President and climate advocate Al Gore criticized the decision to hold the 28th annual Conference of Parties (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates, a leading global oil producer. Even worse, Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was appointed as the conference’s president. 

In his first interview since being the sixth person ever expelled from Congress, George Santos said he would accept a plea deal if offered one (but so far a plea deal isn’t on the table). Gone but not forgotten!!!

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The Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to a Washington state law challenging a ban on “conversion therapy” for LGBTQ youth, prompting a 5-page dissent from worst guy we know, Justice Clarence Thomas, plus additional dissents from the other worst guys we know, Justices Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh. Tough luck, assholes!