The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released our initial analysis of the January Employment Report released by the California Employment Development Department. For additional information and data about the California economy visit www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

This month continues the annual data update process, with revisions to the labor force data for all areas for 2019 and for California and Los Angeles County from 1990-2019.  The industry employment, hours, and earnings data also has been revised for 1990-2019, with the more extensive changes primarily affecting the Rail Transportation and Total Farm numbers.  The final updates will be the labor force numbers for the other counties later this month, along with our updates to the legislative district estimates using that data and the 2018 American Community Survey results.  Comparisons between the different geographic levels consequently should take the ongoing revision schedule into account.

Last Jobs Update To Reflect Numbers Pre-COVID-19 Economic Impact

The most recent numbers also reflect the state of the California economy prior to the recent COVID-19 emergency situation.  The extent of the economic effects are as yet unknown and will depend on the duration and severity of the outbreak, economic effects from the individual, employer, and government measures now being taken to limit new infections through social distancing, consumer reactions, and the actions now being taken by employers and the state and federal governments to minimize job and income impacts.  Although some effects likely will be reflected in the February results, especially supply chain and trade effects stemming from conditions in China, the overall effects will begin to be seen in the March numbers that will be released in April. 

The range of potential economic scenarios on the national level along with strategies for employers has been prepared by McKinsey & Company.  Wells Fargo has also just released their revised national forecast expecting a small decline in the second quarter, but with quick recovery and resumed growth in the second half.  UCLA Anderson Forecast expects both the US and California to be weaker than previously expected particularly in the third quarter, but still positive and with recovery beginning in the fourth quarter.

The Center will continue to highlight this information as it becomes available.

Unemployment rates by ethnicity/race improved for Latinos and African-Americans.  The data source for these rates differs from the reported numbers, with EDD estimating the demographic rates as a 12-month moving average from the core Current Population Survey data.  Labor force participation rates held steady for all groups.