Daily News Brief

December 8, 2023

Top of the Agenda

The UN Security Council is expected to vote today (Reuters) on a resolution that calls for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” in the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, and for Hamas to immediately and unconditionally release all hostages. It comes as Israeli forces continue their heavy offensive in southern Gaza, where they said they have detected rockets (NYT) being fired from humanitarian zones. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday that there is a “gap” (WaPo) between Israel’s stated intent to protect civilians and what is happening on the ground. Israel also said yesterday it would take steps to allow some more fuel to enter Gaza.

In the broader region, rockets hit the U.S. embassy in Baghdad (CBS) this morning, though no casualties were reported. In the wake of recent attacks on commercial ships by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said yesterday that the United States reserves the right to use force (Bloomberg) against the Houthis.

Analysis

“Fifty-plus days of war show that while Israel can demolish Gaza, it cannot destroy Hamas,” the University of Chicago’s Robert A. Pape writes in Foreign Affairs. “Israel is hardly the first country to err by placing excessive faith in the coercive magic of airpower.”

“This is a difficult game to fine-tune for a group like the Houthis who are not just zealots but also have very little to lose,” the International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez tells the New York Times. “The longer the war goes on, the bigger the risk of tensions getting completely out of control.”

In this episode of The President’s Inbox, CFR expert Steven A. Cook discusses the renewed fighting in Gaza. Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

COP28

The global electricity system is approaching (BusinessGreen) a “turning point,” think tank Ember said in a report released today. Negotiators at the UN climate conference are considering a draft agreement to ensure “economy-wide” emissions peak in 2025, and Ember said its analysis suggests such a peak is “eminently feasible” in the next few years.

At COP28 and in Ottawa, Canadian officials announced the government will require (The Guardian) fossil fuel companies to cut their emissions by at least 35 percent below 2019 levels beginning in 2030. The cap would allow for some carbon trading.

Pacific Rim

Indonesia will announce within one month (Reuters) its decision on whether to grant visa-free travel to nationals of countries including the United States, China, and India in a bid to boost tourism and the country’s economy, Indonesian Tourism Minister Sandiaga Uno said.

Japan/South Korea/U.S.: National security advisers from the three countries will discuss (AP) topics including North Korea’s recent military reconnaissance satellite launch at a meeting tomorrow in Seoul, the South Korean president’s office said.

South and Central Asia

The countries said in a joint statement that they hope to sign a peace treaty (BBC) by the end of the year. An Azerbaijani military push earlier this year expelled tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians who had been living in a disputed enclave of Azerbaijan. As part of the rapprochement, Armenia announced its support for Azerbaijan’s candidacy to host next year’s UN climate summit.

CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker looks at the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Myanmar/Thailand: The countries will form a humanitarian task force (Reuters) to respond to displacements due to government-rebel fighting in Myanmar’s border areas, Thailand’s foreign ministry said. 

Middle East and North Africa

The leader of a party critical to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s legislative majority said that he would not support (Bloomberg) Sweden’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) unless there is “permanent peace” between the Israelis and the Palestinians. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

At least four organizers of the rally scheduled to take place on Sunday in the country’s capital of Addis Ababa were detained, the BBC reported. The demonstrators oppose security operations currently being carried out by Ethiopia’s army in the country’s Oromia and Amhara regions.

Sierra Leone: Former President Ernest Bai Koroma said he would comply (Reuters) with a summons for questioning as part of a police probe into an unsuccessful Nov. 26 coup attempt.

Europe

The countries agreed to shelve tensions (NYT) over long-standing differences in favor of closer commercial ties. They signed memorandums of understanding on areas including energy, migration, and trade and said they aimed to double annual bilateral trade to $10 billion. The agreements came as Erdoğan made his first visit to Athens in six years.

Spain/EU: Deputy Prime Minister Nadia Calviño won enough support (FT) from European Union (EU) finance ministers to become the next president of the European Investment Bank, the world’s largest multilateral lender.

Americas

The Inter-American Development Bank, the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean, the Brazilian Development Bank, and a bank owned by Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay pledged (AP) at a summit of the customs union Mercosur yesterday to invest ports, railways, power transmission lines, and other infrastructure aimed at physically integrating the region. 

This Backgrounder examines Mercosur’s past and present.

U.S./Guyana: The two countries conducted joint air drills (CBS) yesterday over Guyana amid threats by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to annex part of oil-rich Guyana. Guyana’s president said he hopes the dispute, on which Venezuela conducted a referendum last week, can be resolved peacefully.

United States

The Biden administration is considering new restrictions for asylum-seekers as part of efforts to win sufficient Republican backing to war aid for Ukraine and Israel by the year’s end, Reuters reported. After a bill to fund Ukraine, Israel, and other security needs failed to pass the Senate on Wednesday, Biden said that he is willing (CNN) to make “significant compromises” on the border.

Friday Editor’s Pick

Officials from the Marshall Islands share their vision with Grist for adapting to—or just surviving—climate change.

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