One reason is that the carbon offset schemes that are the center of predictions of progress are increasingly seen as discredited or corrupt. Many COP leaders are aware that the purported gains made by many of them will never pan out.
The left-wing British paper The Guardian and the German paper Die Zeit published a joint report. It found that over 90% of rainforest carbon offsets certified by Verra, the world’s leading carbon credit certifier, claimed reductions in deforestation that didn’t actually exist.
In October, South Pole, a Swiss company that sells carbon offsets, ended its agreement with a Zimbabwe partner that had generated millions of carbon credits by preventing deforestation. But the credits turned out to also be worthless.
A spate of “the carbon emperor has no clothes” revelations has led to the prices of carbon offsets traded by the exchange Xpansi falling by more than 80% in less than two years. Its Global Emission Offset contract, used by airlines to offset carbon emissions, was trading at 44 cents in November, down from $3.43 at the start of 2023.
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