From Hudson Institute Weekend Reads <[email protected]>
Subject The Faltering Chinese Economy Gives America Leverage
Date December 2, 2023 12:00 PM
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People attend the Eighth Belt and Road Summit on September 13, 2023, in Hong Kong, China. (Photo by Hou Yu/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)

As China pursues an aggressive agenda to replace the United States–led Bretton Woods economic system, Beijing’s weak economy presents Washington with a crucial opportunity.

Hudson Senior Fellow Thomas J. Duesterberg [[link removed]] recently released a report [[link removed]] detailing how the US can take advantage. Watch or listen to his conversation [[link removed]] with Hudson China Center Director Miles Yu [[link removed]] and other China experts about the report’s findings. Key excerpts are below.

Watch, read, or listen to the event. [[link removed]]

Key Insights

1. China seeks to overturn the post–World War II economic order, but Xi Jinping needs Joe Biden’s help to keep the Chinese economy afloat. This gives Washington leverage.

China is highly reliant on foreign capital and foreign markets for sustainable growth. An inability to increase revenues internally to meet the difficult domestic challenges of an aging population, inadequate pensions and medical care, and environmental degradation, among others—not to speak of the failure to deliver housing units paid for in advance by mortgaged households—all are causing sporadic political discontent as seen in mortgage strikes, popular opposition to COVID lockdowns, and deterioration of public services. The charm offensive that led to the Xi-Biden photo ops this month is recognition by Xi that he needs Western help to turn around his economy. So I argue that these problems give American and allied policymakers the opportunity to exercise some leverage to convince Chinese leadership to change its mercantile policies and its programs to undermine the US-led Bretton Woods economic order. China’s aggressive use of these programs is a challenge to the economic and political vitality of the United States and its allies and to the post–World War II geopolitical order.

— Hudson Senior Fellow Thomas J. Duesterberg [[link removed]]

2. If America seeks détente with China, it will help the Chinese Communist Party.

I think [the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit] revealed that policymakers here in Washington are interested in pursuing a path toward détente. A lot of the language that we heard from Xi Jinping himself about the world is big enough for the two of us is eerily reminiscent of what we even heard from [Nikita] Khrushchev during the Cold War about peaceful coexistence, right? Even the Biden administration’s China policy is rooted in an idea of competing while coexisting. It assumes a policy of détente. . . . It's important that we recognize that détente as a policy failed. . . . We pursued policies that were aimed at stability but counterintuitively extended the Soviet system’s survival.

— Foundation for Defense of Democracies Senior Fellow Craig Singleton

3. Americans agree that the US should push back against China’s economic and ideological challenge.

I think there is something of a consensus that what China does economically is in many ways a threat to the United States. So that provides an opening to start looking at the larger ideological human rights questions. And as we observe how China treats its own people . . . [and] how it treats people around the world with whom they are engaged in economic programs, and as they give many forms of support to aggressors in these conflicts that we have in the Mideast and in Ukraine, I think there’s a growing recognition that these policies violate principles important to both the right and left. So these are elements that could go into a deeper, more values-based recognition of what China is really up to. And I think there’s a basis for some consensus around those ideas.

— Hudson Senior Fellow Thomas J. Duesterberg [[link removed]]

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

Watch, read, or listen to the event. [[link removed]] Go Deeper

Xi’s False Promises on Fentanyl [[link removed]]

Even as Joe Biden takes a victory lap on his recent deal with Xi, it would be foolish to believe that the CCP intends to stop its program of poisoning Americans with fentanyl. Hudson President and CEO John P. Walters [[link removed]] and Senior Fellow Tod Lindberg [[link removed]] explain why in The Messenger [[link removed]].

Read [[link removed]]

The CCP [[link removed]]’ s Strategy to Shape the Global Information Space [[link removed]]

Before the House Select Committee on the CCP [[link removed]], Hudson’s Miles Yu [[link removed]] testifies about China’s extensive information operations from hundreds of thousands of fake social media accounts to a Harvard University study done on behalf of the party.

Watch [[link removed]]

Placating Xi Won’t Change China’s Behavior [[link removed]]

“Carrots” have never worked with Beijing, so Hudson Senior Fellow Thomas J. Duesterberg [[link removed]] identifies four “sticks” Biden can use to push back on China’s aggression in the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]].

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