Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Nov. 30, 2023
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Israel-Hamas War: Can Economics Help Drive Peace?


The human toll of the Israel-Hamas war is horrific. At the same time, the economic costs--from property destruction, a disrupted labor market, reduced foreign investment, and other factors--loom large. Such losses threaten the future prosperity of both Israel and Gaza--and undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state.

A 2015 RAND analysis warned about just how costly a large-scale conflict could be. Now that the Israel-Hamas war is a reality, senior economist Daniel Egel used that study's findings as a baseline to estimate that the fighting could result in $400 billion in Israeli losses over the next decade. Additionally, Palestinians' aggregate economic activity could be reduced by one-third.

The magnitude of these losses might, paradoxically, make peace in the region feasible for the first time in a generation, Egel says. "The reality of this war is that both groups will need external support to recover. That could underwrite a peace anchored in a shared need for a prosperous economic future."

But turning this crisis into an opportunity for peace will not be easy. It will require commitment from the international community and "vision, leadership, and courage from the Israeli and Palestinian communities."

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Preventing Climate-Related Conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia

Climate change is expected to make the Middle East and Central Asia hotter and drier, reducing access to fresh water. This could destabilize the region and potentially increase the risk of intrastate conflict--a major concern for leaders within U.S. Central Command. A new RAND report outlines ideas to help prevent climate hazards from spilling over into the security environment in this key region. The findings are timely, as COP28, the annual United Nations climate change summit, begins today in Dubai.

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How to Create a Community-Police Dialogue

For more than a decade, significant media attention and public protests have focused on high-profile incidents involving police use of deadly force against Black Americans. One key step toward preventing future tragedies is to build trust between local police departments and the communities they serve. To this end, RAND researchers created a step-by-step guide for planning and conducting a productive community-police dialogue. The complete toolkit can be downloaded for free.

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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Raphael Cohen spoke with Vox about the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel: Hamas is betting that the longer the pause in fighting, the more international pressure there will be for a permanent truce. "I think it affects more the political calculus rather than the military calculus," he said.
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- How can the U.S. government prepare for increasingly powerful artificial intelligence? RAND's Jeff Alstott recently testified before Congress to highlight key considerations for lawmakers.
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- A recently published RAND paper explores opportunities to improve behavioral health care in the Military Health System.
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** Events
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Looking Ahead in Ukraine: What Could Increase the Risk of Escalation?
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 (Washington, D.C., or Online)
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China, Taiwan, and the United States: The Coming War?
Wednesday, December 13, 2023 (Online)
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