March 12, 2020
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
FISA reform bill would still have allowed spying on Trump campaign via Carter Page
The House has passed
legislation to reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act by U.S. Rep.
Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler
(D-N.Y.) by a margin of 278 to 136. The bill reauthorizes the program and
clearly does not go far enough, but it includes new provisions to ensure that
exculpatory information in the government’s possession is brought to seniors
members of the Justice Department. Applications to the FISA court must now make
certifications that the Justice Department has been briefed on “all information
that might reasonably… call into question the accuracy of the application or
the reasonableness of any assessment in the application conducted by the
department or agency on whose behalf the application is made.” In other areas
the legislation completely misses the mark, requiring Attorney General sign off
only on applications targeting a candidate for federal office or an elected
official. Carter Page was not a candidate. He was a campaign volunteer. That
was the cute way to spy on Trump without making him the target of the warrant.
And the new bill authorizes it. The bill as written would not require the Attorney
General to have even looked at the Carter Page FISA applications. Just don’t
target the candidate or official, and the Attorney General doesn’t need to see
the application. This is embarrassing. There's a reason why the Framers
required two witnesses for treason allegations and it was to stop this sort of
thing from occurring.
Video: Will the important Cuban-American vote go Trump in Florida in 2020?
The key to President Trump
keeping Florida in his column In November may come from the Cuban-American
vote.
Helen Branswell: Why ‘flattening the curve’ may be the world’s best bet to slow the coronavirus
“For many countries staring
down fast-rising coronavirus case counts, the race is on to ‘flatten the curve.’
The United States and other countries, experts say, are likely to be hit by
tsunamis of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks without aggressive public health
responses. But by taking certain steps — canceling large public gatherings, for
instance, and encouraging some people to restrict their contact with others —
governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission, while also
trying to mitigate the damage of the spread that isn’t under control.The
epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualize when and at what speed
new cases are reported, could be flattened, rather than being allowed to rise
exponentially. ‘If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and
then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,’ Anthony Fauci,
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told
reporters Tuesday. ‘That would have less people infected. That would ultimately
have less deaths. You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of
the outbreak.’”
FISA reform bill would still have allowed spying on Trump campaign via Carter Page
By Robert Romano
The House has passed legislation to reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) by U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) by a margin of 278 to 136.
The bill reauthorizes the program and clearly does not go far enough, but it includes new provisions to ensure that exculpatory information in the government’s possession is brought to seniors members of the Justice Department. Applications to the FISA court must now make certifications that the Justice Department has been briefed on “all information that might reasonably… call into question the accuracy of the application or the reasonableness of any assessment in the application conducted by the department or agency on whose behalf the application is made.”
The bill also requires the Attorney General to “promulgate rules governing the review of case files, as appropriate, to ensure that applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court under title I or III of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 (50 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.) that target United States persons are accurate and complete.”
The bill improves Congressional oversight, and gives the House and Senate intelligence committees from gaining access to FISA warrant applications. But it may fall short. It still depends on members of the committees learning about FISA abuse in real time and then securing access. That said, such a provision would have undoubtedly helped U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) when he was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee to expose the FISA fraud much sooner. The Justice Department delayed release of documents, and the FISA warrant application was only made public via a Freedom of Information Act request by Judicial Watch.
In other areas the legislation completely misses the mark, requiring Attorney General sign off only on applications targeting a candidate for federal office or an elected official. Carter Page was not a candidate. He was a campaign volunteer. That was the cute way to spy on Trump without making him the target of the warrant. And the new bill authorizes it. The bill as written would not require the Attorney General to have even looked at the Carter Page FISA applications. Just don’t target the candidate or official, and the Attorney General doesn’t need to see the application. This is embarrassing.
The penalties for abuse of the process are equally pathetic. Six months for contempt for deceiving the court to spy on Americans and engage in a bureaucratic coup against the duly elected President? C’mon.
And what about the hearsay and probable cause problem? The Justice Department managed to get court-ordered surveillance against an entire presidential campaign, transition and then administration without so much as an eyewitness. The source was not a source, and neither were his sources. It was hearsay from a foreign intelligence agent designed to put President Trump in the worst possible light, but was completely unverifiable and unverified when the Justice Department unleashed the investigation, and unverifiable by the court that apparently doesn’t need evidence.
That’s because probable cause is not what you think it is. According to the Mueller report, FISA applications only require a “fair probability” of being a foreign agent, “On four occasions, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) issued warrants based on a finding of probable cause to believe that Page was an agent of a foreign power. 50 U.S.C. §§ 1801(b), 1805(a)(2)(A). The FISC’s probable-cause finding was based on a different (and lower) standard than the one governing the Office’s decision whether to bring charges against Page, which is whether admissible evidence would likely be sufficient to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Page acted as an agent of the Russian Federation during the period at issue. Cf United States v. Cardoza, 713 F.3d 656, 660 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (explaining that probable cause requires only ‘a fair probability,’ and not ‘certainty, or proof beyond a reasonable doubt, or proof by a preponderance of the evidence’).”
That is the thorny problem that Congress must address. Intelligence as a practice inherently relies on hearsay and whisper networks. Those could be rumors, or they could be real actionable intelligence. You don’t know ahead of time. And so the system relies on the veracity and honesty of the agents in the field, and that they do not have bad motives for targeting political opponents.
That is why political campaigns and politics in general needs to be separated forevermore.
The devil’s advocate would say we need these surveillance tools to apprehend terrorists, the mob and drug cartels, and so the answer appears to be, use it on them. But political campaigns? Why was Carter Page and the Trump campaign given the same treatment as an al Qaeda terrorist? The initial application did not even include the fact that Page had acted as an agent on behalf of the CIA and this was even covered up the fact to keep the spying going. He was on our side, and the system did not even know when it declared him an enemy of the state.
For that is what FISA at its heart is, an excuse to spy on Americans or unpopular political parties as if they were foreign agents or terrorists. President Trump and his campaign were enemies of the state. And so they were spied on and attempted to be framed for crimes they did not commit.
There’s a reason why treason in the Constitution requires eye witnesses. According to a Constitution Center paper by Paul Crane and Deborah Pearlstein, “While the Constitution’s Framers shared the centuries-old view that all citizens owed a duty of loyalty to their home nation, they included the Treason Clause not so much to underscore the seriousness of such a betrayal, but to guard against the historic use of treason prosecutions by repressive governments to silence otherwise legitimate political opposition. Debate surrounding the Clause at the Constitutional Convention thus focused on ways to narrowly define the offense, and to protect against false or flimsy prosecutions.”
The threshold for spying on political institutions should be clear and convincing evidence and eye witness testimony. You’re not trying to stop a terrorist attack or find a bomb before it goes off.
The Senate must improve on this bill, or else President Donald Trump should veto it and approve a temporary authorization to provide enough time to get this done right. There is too much at stake.
The reason FISA was passed in 1978 was because the CIA was spying on anti-war protesters, reporters and even members of Congress in the Vietnam War era. It was to rein in the surveillance state.
The abuses we saw in 2016 were as bad or worse than anything that occurred back then.
U.S. intelligence agencies and the Justice Department engaged in court-approved spying of the Trump campaign, the opposition party, in an election year on what’s turns out were false charges that President Donald Trump and his campaign were Russian agents who helped hack the Democratic National Committee and John Podesta email and put them on Wikileaks.
There were a ton of reasons to “call into question the accuracy of the application” made by the government to do this.
The allegations originated from the DNC and the Hillary Clinton campaign, who hired Fusion GPS and former British spy Christopher Steele to produce the fake dossier, and then were forwarded to the FBI, who initiated the investigation, resulting in an Oct. 2016 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant against then-Trump campaign advisor Carter Page, his contacts, and his contacts’ contacts. It gave the government access to campaign emails, phone calls, text messages and other communications.
This was the same dossier that was briefed to then-President-elect Donald Trump in Jan. 2017 by former FBI Director James Comey — right before it was reported on by CNN and published by Buzzfeed, sending the nation into a new Red Scare — who later told Congress that it was “salacious and unverified” even as his agency was using it to get the warrants were renewed.
The warrant was renewed three times even after Jan. 2017, when the FBI learned that Steele’s source had contradicted him when questioned by the FBI. According to Justice Depatment Inspector General Michael Horowitz’ report, once the main source that Steele used was contacted, “the Primary Sub-source made statements during his/her January 2017 FBI interview that were inconsistent with multiple sections of the Steele reports, including some that were relied upon in the FISA applications. Among other things, regarding the allegations attributed to Person 1, the Primary Sub-source’s account of these communications, if true, was not consistent with and, in fact, contradicted the allegations of a ‘well-developed conspiracy’…”
Instead, the Justice Department doubled down. Per Horowitz, “However, we found no evidence that the Crossfire Hurricane team ever considered whether any of the inconsistencies warranted reconsideration of the FBI’s assessment of the reliability of the Steele reports or notice to OI before the subsequent renewal applications were filed. Instead, the second and third renewal applications provided no substantive information concerning the Primary Sub-source’s interview…”
And yet Speaking to Fox News’ Chris Wallace on Dec. 15, Comey says that the sub-source interview did not occur until after Buzzfeed published the dossier, creating a challenge for investigators (and a ready-made excuse for Comey): “that doesn’t drive a conclusion that Steele’s reporting is bunk. I mean, there’s a number of tricky things to that. First, you’re interviewing the sub-source after all of the reporting has become public. And so, as a counterintelligence investigator, you have to think, ‘Is he walking away from it because it’s now public?’… This is when it blew up, when it was published by whatever the outfit is — BuzzFeed. It was all over the news and had become a big deal.”
And that he had no idea that Steele had been contradicted by the primary sub-source: “As the director, you’re not kept informed on the details of an investigation. So, no, in general, I didn’t know what they’d learned from the sub-source. I didn’t know the particulars of the investigation.”
So, the FBI was spying on the President of the United States, his 2016 campaign and his administration presumably, and the FBI Director says he was “not kept informed on the details of an investigation.” What the heck?
This goes to the heart of the reforms being considered, but it is based on a lie. What prompted the FBI to investigate the sub-source only after Buzzfeed had published the dossier? Who ordered it? And afterward, who sat on it? Who knew about it? Was Special Counsel Robert Mueller aware? It’s unbelievable that nobody’s talking. Attorney General William Barr and U.S. Attorney John Durham must expose the perpetrators who lied to the American people and lied to the FISA court, which has issued a rebuke of the abuses.
On March 4, FISA Judge James Boasberg blasted the FBI’s shoddy work in response to the Horowitz report: “The OIG found that those applications contained significant factual inaccuracies and omissions relevant to whether there as probable cause to believe Page was an agent of the Russian government. There is thus little doubt that the government breached its duty of candor to the Court with respect to those applications.”
So, the Justice Department withheld the exculpatory information from the FISA court, and Comey lied to President Trump — who knew he was innocent all along — about the extent of the investigation, leading to his firing and the appointment of Special Counsel Mueller.
After former Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ recusal and the Comey firing, Mueller in turn kept the investigation into Trump, his campaign and administration going for another two years — even though he should have known at the outset that Steele’s source had folded — bringing up George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone and Michael Flynn up on process crimes, and Paul Manafort on unrelated financial and tax crimes.
Mueller turned in his final report in 2017, clearing Trump and his campaign of being Russian agents, but conveniently leaving out the fact that the Justice Department as early as Jan. 2017, before Trump was even sworn into office, had serious reasons to doubt the allegations against Trump and his campaign. He left it to Horowitz to bring that to the American people’s attention.
Per Mueller, “the Office did not find evidence likely to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Campaign officials such as Paul Manafort, George Papadopoulos, and Carter Page acted as agents of the Russian government — or at its direction, control or request — during the relevant time period.” As for Michael Cohen, per Mueller, “Cohen had never traveled to Prague…” even though Steele had Cohen supposedly in Czech Republic in the summer of 2016 meeting with Russian agents.
Mueller added, “the evidence was not sufficient to charge that any member of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with representatives of the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 election.”
Steele had his own doubts, including that the information he gathered might have been Russian disinformation. In court testimony, Steele said “all material contained this risk” of being disinformation. Further, Steele didn’t go to Russia himself, and was said to have relied on a network to relay information, stating that the allegations needed to be “further corroborated and verified.”
Steele said his sources were Russian, but they were not named: Source A was a “former top Russian intelligence officer”; Source B was a “senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure”; Source C was a “senior Russian financial official”; Source D was a “close associate of Trump” (golden showers source); Source E was an “ethnic Russian close associate” of Trump (golden showers source); Source F was a “female staffer of the hotel”; and source G was a “senior Kremlin official”.
Now we know based on Horowitz that Steele did not have direct contact with the individuals mentioned in his dossier. He heard it from sources who had it from sources who had it from sources. It was worse than hearsay.
Per Horowitz, “the Primary Sub-source felt that the tenor of Steele’s reports was far more ‘conclusive’ than was justified. The Primary Subsource also stated that he/she never expected Steele to put the Primary Subsource’s statements in reports or present them as facts. According to WFO Agent 1, the Primary Sub-source said he/ she made it clear to Steele that he/she had no proof to support the statements from his/her sub-sources and that ‘it was just talk.’”
Additionally, according to Horowitz, “the Primary Sub-source explained that his/her information came from ‘word of mouth and hearsay;’ ‘conversation that [he/she] had with friends over beers;’ and that some of the information, such as allegations about Trump’s sexual activities, were statements he/she heard made in ‘jest.’ The Primary Sub-source also told WFO Agent 1 that he/she believed that the other sub-sources exaggerated their access to information and the relevance of that information to his/her requests. The Primary Sub-source told WFO Agent 1 that he/she ‘takes what [sub-sources] tell [him/ her] with ‘a grain of salt.’’”
And even after the exculpatory information was widely known in the Department’s top leadership, the Department conspired to conceal that information from the FISA Court. Per Horowitz: “the second and third renewal applications provided no substantive information concerning the Primary Sub-source’s interview,” when the key witness on behalf of the government of at this point criminal wrongdoing was directly contradicting the facts the government was purporting in a court of law.
Renewal of FISA provides a little bit of leverage for reformers to attempt to put in place rules that can prevent this sort of thing from happening again. This bill does not go far enough, and so the Senate should take its time with it and bolster it. This is not what the Fourth Amendment was supposed to mean. Clearly, political institutions like campaigns need additional protections from ridiculous accusations of being foreign agents. If that means another temporary reauthorization or no reauthorization at all, so be it.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Video: Will the important Cuban-American vote go Trump in Florida in 2020?
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlQti24re-U
ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured monologue from Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, minimizing the Chinese coronavirus’ potential impact won’t make it go away:
Helen Branswell: Why ‘flattening the curve’ may be the world’s best bet to slow the coronavirus
By Helen Branswell
For many countries staring down fast-rising coronavirus case counts, the race is on to “flatten the curve.”
The United States and other countries, experts say, are likely to be hit by tsunamis of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks without aggressive public health responses. But by taking certain steps — canceling large public gatherings, for instance, and encouraging some people to restrict their contact with others — governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission, while also trying to mitigate the damage of the spread that isn’t under control.
The epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualize when and at what speed new cases are reported, could be flattened, rather than being allowed to rise exponentially.
“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters Tuesday. “That would have less people infected. That would ultimately have less deaths. You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”
The notion that the curve of this outbreak could be flattened began to gain credence after China took the extraordinary step of locking down tens of millions of people days in advance of the Lunar New Year, to prevent the virus from spreading around the country from Wuhan, the city where the outbreak appears to have started. Many experts at the time said it would have been impossible to slow a rapidly transmitting respiratory infection by effectively shutting down enormous cities — and possibly counterproductive.
But the quarantines, unprecedented in modern times, appear to have prevented explosive outbreaks from occurring in cities outside of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.
Since then, spread of the virus in China has slowed to a trickle; the country reported only 19 cases on Monday. And South Korea, which has had the third largest outbreak outside of China, also appears to be beating back transmission through aggressive actions. But other places, notably Italy and Iran, are struggling.
For weeks, a debate has raged about whether the virus could be “contained” — an approach the WHO has been exhorting countries to focus on — or whether it made more sense to simply try to lessen the virus’ blow, an approach known as “mitigation.”
That argument has been counterproductive, Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s health emergencies program, said Monday.
“I think we’ve had this unfortunate emergence of camps around the containment camp, the mitigation camp — different groups presenting and championing their view of the world. And frankly speaking, it’s not helpful,” Ryan told reporters.
Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said any lessening of spread will help health systems remain functional.
“Even if we are not headed to zero transmission, any cases that we can prevent and any transmission that we can avoid are going to have enormous impact,” she said. “Not only on the individuals who end up not getting sick but all of the people that they would have ended up infecting. … And so the more that we can minimize it, the better.”
On any normal day, health systems in the United States typically run close to capacity. If a hospital is overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases, patients will have a lower chance of surviving than they would if they became ill when the hospital’s patient load was more manageable. People in car crashes, people with cancer, pregnant women who have complications during delivery — all those people risk getting a lesser caliber of care when a hospital is trying to cope with the chaos of an outbreak.
“I think the whole notion of flattening the curve is to slow things down so that this doesn’t hit us like a brick wall,” said Michael Mina, associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “It’s really all borne out of the risk of our health care infrastructure pulling apart at the seams if the virus spreads too quickly and too many people start showing up at the emergency room at any given time.”
Countries and regions that have been badly hit by the virus report hospitals that are utterly swamped by the influx of sick people struggling to breathe.
Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, is gravely worried about what he’s hearing from contacts in Italy, where people initially played down the outbreak as “a kind of flu,” he said. Hospitals in the north of the country, which the virus first took root, are filled beyond capacity, he said, and may soon face the nightmarish dilemma of having to decide who to try to save.
“This was what was really keeping me up at night, to unfortunately see Italy approaching that point,” Vespignani said, adding that now that the country has effectively followed China’s example and put its population on lockdown, “hopefully this will work.”
Vespignani, along with colleagues, published a recent modeling study in Science that showed travel restrictions — which the United States has adopted to a degree — only slow spread when combined with public health interventions and individual behavioral change. He’s not convinced that people in the United States comprehend what’s coming.
“I think people are not yet fully understanding the scale of this outbreak and how dangerous it is to downplay,” he said.
Mina agreed: “Without a very clear signal coming from our government at the national level, it’s really just like a small trickle as people start to recognize that this is happening.”
Rivers and colleagues from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health have looked at what U.S. hospitals might endure if Wuhan-scale spread occurred in this country. Their analysis, posted on a preprint server in advance of peer review, came to a chilling conclusion.
“If a Wuhan-like outbreak were to take place in a U.S. city, even with strong social distancing and contact tracing protocols as strict as the Wuhan lockdown, hospitalization and ICU needs from COVID-19 patients alone may exceed current capacity,” they wrote. “We don’t want to go that route,” Rivers told STAT. “So it’s the top priority right now that we bend the curve.”
As of Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there had been 647 cases and 25 deaths in the country. A website maintained by Johns Hopkins University — which is considered the go-to website for Covid-19 statistics — scrapes data from a variety of sources. It suggested late Tuesday afternoon that there had been 808 cases in the U.S. and 28 deaths. Most in the deaths have been in the Seattle area.
But the reality is that with state and local laboratories in the country still getting up to speed with how to test for this infection, the full extent of spread is not known.
Without that kind of data, public officials have been loath to take the types of measures that would help to flatten the country’s epidemic curve. Those measures include banning concerts, sporting events, and other mass gatherings, closing movie theaters, telling people who can telecommute to work from home, and potentially closing schools. (The jury is still out on how much school closures would help slow spread.)
“I think that in terms of the decision-makers, we are in a place right now where we don’t have the data we wish we had in order to inform these decisions,” Rivers said. “So what I think we’re seeing is decision-makers struggling to pull the trigger on these really big, impactful decisions without having a clear sense of the current status.”
“But we know from pandemic planning and previous experiences that the sooner we implement these measures, the more effective that they are,” she said.
Mina said the lack of evidence of widespread transmission in the country may be making people feel any aggressive step right now may be an overreaction. But this is precisely the time when public health measures of this sort can have an impact, he said.
“We are all wondering if our actions are melodramatic. And we’re feeling silly,” he said, noting people still feel self-conscious bumping elbows instead of shaking hands.
“But this is the problem, that people aren’t recognizing that we are at this moment and we can make a decision right now to flatten this curve by … being OK with wondering if we’re being melodramatic,” he said.
“Should we be canceling classes? Should we be canceling our flights? Should we not be shaking hands? All of these things are things that I want the public to keep wondering if we should be doing this. Because the moment we’re no longer wondering whether we should be doing it, it’s too late,” Mina said. “That means that we know we should be doing it. And that is a bad place to be.”