Today's Brew brings you an analysis of state legislative race competitiveness + a summary of noteworthy March 10 local ballot measure results
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Welcome to the Thursday, March 12, Brew. Here's what's in store for you as you start your day:

* 2020 state legislative races less competitive than 2018 so far
* Local roundup
* 2,625 major party candidates have filed for 2020 Congress in 2020

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** FEWER PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN 2020 STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES COMPARED TO 2018
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We are excited to release the 10th volume of our annual state legislative competitiveness study later this year. With nine states having already completed their filing deadlines, here’s an interim update from the data.

Thus far, 2020 STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS ARE LESS COMPETITIVE THAN 2018’S ELECTIONS. The three categories that saw a decrease in competition are _open seats, incumbents with primary challengers, and total primaries_.

Those nine states are Arkansas, California, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia.

In the nine states, 1,167 state legislative seats are up for election this year, representing just under 20% of all seats up for election in 2020.

Looking at the nine states that have had filing deadlines completed so far allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of 2020 to 2018 data. Here’s what that looks like so far.


** OPEN SEATS
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Fewer incumbents are retiring in 2020 compared to 2018. This year, there are 141 incumbents—59 Democrats and 82 Republicans—not running for re-election. In 2018, 185 incumbents—61 Democrats and 124 Republicans—did not run for re-election. The biggest decrease was in the Ohio House, where 18 incumbents did not file for re-election this year after 32 incumbents retired in 2018. Ohio has term limits of four terms, or eight total years in the chamber.


** INCUMBENTS WITH PRIMARY CHALLENGERS
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Fewer incumbents are also facing primary challengers in 2020. This year, 202 incumbents—97 Democrats and 105 Republicans—face at least one primary challenger. In 2018, 258 incumbents—97 Democrats and 152 Republicans—faced at least one challenger in a primary election. The biggest decrease was in the Texas House, where 30 incumbents had primary challengers in 2020 after 43 had primary challengers in 2018.


** TOTAL PRIMARIES
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There are also fewer contested primaries in 2020. This year, there are 425 total primaries—206 Democratic and 219 Republican. In 2018, there were 527 total primaries—258 Democratic and 269 Republican. Both the California Assembly and Ohio House had the biggest decrease in total primaries, with 21 fewer this year for each chamber than in 2020.

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** LOCAL ROUNDUP
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In addition to the presidential primaries, our staff covered a variety of local elections. Here are two noteworthy local ballot measure races.


** CHANDLER, ARIZONA ([link removed]))
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Proposition 426 amended the city's charter to say that primary, regular, and special elections may be held on election dates authorized by state law. Before the election, the city charter said the municipal primary election shall be held on the 10th Tuesday before the general election. According to election night results, 92% OF VOTERS WERE IN FAVOR OF THE CHARTER AMENDMENT.

This change was proposed to make the city charter comply with state law after SB 1154 (2019) was passed moving the state’s primary election to the 1st Tuesday of August before the general election.


** WAYNE COUNTY, MICHIGAN ([link removed]))
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According to election night results, 76.7% OF COUNTY VOTERS WERE IN FAVOR OF RENEWING A 0.2 MILL PROPERTY TAX ($20 PER $100,000 IN ASSESSED VALUE) UNTIL 2031 TO PROVIDE FUNDING FOR THE WAYNE COUNTY ART INSTITUTE AUTHORITY. The tax will generate an estimated $8.5 million in revenue in 2022.

The tax was initially approved in 2012 and was set to expire in December 2021.

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** 2,625 MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES HAVE FILED FOR 2020 CONGRESS IN 2020
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With 32 filing deadlines remaining, 2,625 MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES HAVE FILED TO RUN FOR THE SENATE AND HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVEs in 2020.

* 377 CANDIDATES HAVE FILED WITH THE FEDERAL ELECTIONS COMMISSION (FEC) TO RUN FOR U.S. SENATE. There are 165 Democrats and 153 Republicans running. Fifty-nine candidates are either independent or third-party affiliated. In 2018, 527 candidates filed to run for U.S. Senate, including 137 Democrats and 240 Republicans.

* 2,546 CANDIDATES HAVE FILED FOR U.S. HOUSE. There are 1,090 Democrats and 1,217 Republicans. 239 candidates are either independent or third-party affiliated. In 2018, 3,244 candidates filed, including 1,566 Democrats and 1,155 Republicans.

* 176 of the U.S. Senate candidates and 1,420 of the U.S. House candidates are in states that have already had filing deadlines pass.

* 235 CONGRESSIONAL SEATS—214 in the House and 21 in the Senate— have not yet had a filing deadline pass.

Four senators (three Republicans and one Democrat) are not running for re-election. Thirty-six representatives are not seeking re-election. Of those, 27 are Republican and nine are Democratic. In 2018, 55 members of Congress—18 Democrats and 37 Republicans—did not seek re-election.

35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election on November 3, 2020. Two of those Senate races (Arizona and Georgia) are special elections. Twelve are Democratic-held seats and 23 are Republican-held seats. In the House, Democrats currently hold a 232-197 majority with one independent member.

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