That Joe Biden won the Democratic primaries Tuesday in clear and convincing fashion is old news, as is the fact that he, for better or for worse, is our 2020 presidential nominee. So unless anyone wants Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement chosen by Donald Trump, we have to root (and work) for him to beat Donald Trump this November. And on that front, the news is good.

In 2018, Democrats swept into power across the country, taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives in convincing fashion (flipping 41 seats), winning seven governorships, flipping six state legislative chambers, and winning over 300 state legislator seats. In 2019, we further picked up both chambers of the Virginia legislature, while winning governorships in Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky and holding another one in blood-red Louisiana. The Republican messaging was, “A vote for the Democrat is a vote for Nancy Pelosi,” and the voters were like, “Hell yes!”

Well, that’s partly true. The big overriding factor, of course, was antipathy toward Donald Trump—he motivated our side like never before, and Republicans couldn’t match that intensity. And, critically, Democrats made dramatic inroads into formerly Republican suburbs as educated white women switched allegiances for the first time.

In total, the House popular vote was 53.4-44.8 Democratic, a nearly 8-point spread. In raw votes, that was 60.6 million Democratic votes to 50.9 million Republican ones. Needless to say, anything resembling that spread this November would mean dramatic Democratic gains—from retaking the Senate to holding (and maybe even expanding our lead in) the House. We have key governorships and more state legislatures at play as well.

Of course, there’s one big difference this year from last: Donald Trump is on the ballot. That alone narrows the gap considerably. The other big difference? The stupid Electoral College.

As things currently stand, the presidential election will be won or lost in just seven states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That doesn’t mean other states aren’t in play; it doesn’t mean other states don’t matter down ballot. They almost all do! But if others flip in the presidential contest, this race is over. If Trump wins New Hampshire or Minnesota, he’s already won. If Democrats win Ohio or Iowa or South Carolina, we’re already in a 400+ electoral vote rout. Current public and private polling (including our own Civiqs numbers) show Republicans with a slight lead in Georgia, while the other six states are virtual ties. The popular vote won’t be close, but most of it won’t even matter unless it’s in that narrow playing field. So how does Biden’s performance right now speak to our chances?

I systematically went through primary election results to gauge how Biden has done with several key demographics: Latino voters, Black voters, suburban voters, and Obama-to-Trump white working class voters. And the news on almost all (the exception being Latinos) is remarkably good.

Read my full analysis here.

One of the benefits of our polling firm Civiqs is the ability to track an issue over time, giving us granular insight into what is and isn’t moving numbers. With that in mind, I’m excited to announce that we are now tracking two coronavirus-related questions, and making them fully open and available to the public!

• How satisfied are you with the U.S. government’s current response to the coronavirus outbreak?
• How concerned are you about a coronavirus outbreak in your area?

Both these graphs will be worth following in the coming months as the pandemic sweeps across the United States. But to start, would you be shocked to learn that there is a huge partisan divide in how Democrats and Republicans see the outbreak?

On the question of concern, Democrats are concerned 66-33, while Republicans are utterly unconcerned at 20-79. (Independents split the difference, 40-58.)

On whether they are satisfied with the government’s response, the divide is equally large. While overall 50% are unsatisfied, versus 44% who think it’s doing well, 86% of Democrats are unsatisfied, compared to 85% of Republicans who are satisfied. Just 9% of Republicans think Donald Trump is stinking it up. Amazing, huh?

Independents, again, split the difference—45% satisfied, 48% unsatisfied.

Weirdly, the least worried age group is the oldest 65+—That's the power of Fox News, which informs a disproportionate number of seniors.

Read more here, or click the links above to see the charts directly. Public opinion will shift in interesting ways, and we'll all be able to see those shifts immediately, as they happen.