Daily Kos, PO Box 70036, Oakland, CA, 94612.

Getty Image
Biden tells gun nut that he’s 'full of shit.' America (objectively) agrees
Joe Biden is recreating the victorious urban-suburban-rural Nancy Pelosi coalition of 2018
Poll: Even the coronavirus is a partisan issue—Republicans aren't afraid (and they should be)
Biden tells gun nut that he’s 'full of shit.' America (objectively) agrees

While visiting a construction site in Detroit, Joe Biden got into an argument with a gun nut who claimed that the candidate had advocated a gun grab in “a viral video.” Biden told him he was “full of shit,” before engaging in a back-and-forth.

Republicans (and, weirdly, the Bernie Sanders campaign) pounced, thinking they have a winner. However, guns are not the GOP advantage they think it is.

Nationally, voters are certainly in favor of gun control—or, as the Second Amendment explicitly puts it, “well regulated” measures. Civiqs shows how popular gun control is nationally:

Even more importantly, white educated women—exactly the kind of voters Republicans lost in 2018, leading to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and big Democratic gains up and down the ballot—are even more supportive of gun control. The kicker, though, is attitudes toward gun control in the seven states that matter in the presidential election. You ready?

Every single battleground state supports gun control.

   Arizona: 51-44

   Florida: 51-43

   Georgia: 50-45

   Michigan: 50-44

   North Carolina: 52-42

   Pennsylvania: 52-42

   Wisconsin: 53-41

Click here for more on what appears to be a great moment for the Biden campaign!

Joe Biden is recreating the victorious urban-suburban-rural Nancy Pelosi coalition of 2018

That Joe Biden won the Democratic primaries Tuesday in clear and convincing fashion is old news, as is the fact that he, for better or for worse, is our 2020 presidential nominee. So unless anyone wants Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement chosen by Donald Trump, we have to root (and work) for him to beat Donald Trump this November. And on that front, the news is good.

In 2018, Democrats swept into power across the country, taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives in convincing fashion (flipping 41 seats), winning seven governorships, flipping six state legislative chambers, and winning over 300 state legislator seats. In 2019, we further picked up both chambers of the Virginia legislature, while winning governorships in Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky and holding another one in blood-red Louisiana. The Republican messaging was, “A vote for the Democrat is a vote for Nancy Pelosi,” and the voters were like, “Hell yes!”

Well, that’s partly true. The big overriding factor, of course, was antipathy toward Donald Trump—he motivated our side like never before, and Republicans couldn’t match that intensity. And, critically, Democrats made dramatic inroads into formerly Republican suburbs as educated white women switched allegiances for the first time.

In total, the House popular vote was 53.4-44.8 Democratic, a nearly 8-point spread. In raw votes, that was 60.6 million Democratic votes to 50.9 million Republican ones. Needless to say, anything resembling that spread this November would mean dramatic Democratic gains—from retaking the Senate to holding (and maybe even expanding our lead in) the House. We have key governorships and more state legislatures at play as well.

Of course, there’s one big difference this year from last: Donald Trump is on the ballot. That alone narrows the gap considerably. The other big difference? The stupid Electoral College.

As things currently stand, the presidential election will be won or lost in just seven states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That doesn’t mean other states aren’t in play; it doesn’t mean other states don’t matter down ballot. They almost all do! But if others flip in the presidential contest, this race is over. If Trump wins New Hampshire or Minnesota, he’s already won. If Democrats win Ohio or Iowa or South Carolina, we’re already in a 400+ electoral vote rout. Current public and private polling (including our own Civiqs numbers) show Republicans with a slight lead in Georgia, while the other six states are virtual ties. The popular vote won’t be close, but most of it won’t even matter unless it’s in that narrow playing field. So how does Biden’s performance right now speak to our chances?

I systematically went through primary election results to gauge how Biden has done with several key demographics: Latino voters, Black voters, suburban voters, and Obama-to-Trump white working class voters. And the news on almost all (the exception being Latinos) is remarkably good.

Read my full analysis here.

Poll: Even the coronavirus is a partisan issue—Republicans aren't afraid (and they should be)

One of the benefits of our polling firm Civiqs is the ability to track an issue over time, giving us granular insight into what is and isn’t moving numbers. With that in mind, I’m excited to announce that we are now tracking two coronavirus-related questions, and making them fully open and available to the public!

Both these graphs will be worth following in the coming months as the pandemic sweeps across the United States. But to start, would you be shocked to learn that there is a huge partisan divide in how Democrats and Republicans see the outbreak?

On the question of concern, Democrats are concerned 66-33, while Republicans are utterly unconcerned at 20-79. (Independents split the difference, 40-58.)

On whether they are satisfied with the government’s response, the divide is equally large. While overall 50% are unsatisfied, versus 44% who think it’s doing well, 86% of Democrats are unsatisfied, compared to 85% of Republicans who are satisfied. Just 9% of Republicans think Donald Trump is stinking it up. Amazing, huh?

Independents, again, split the difference—45% satisfied, 48% unsatisfied.

Weirdly, the least worried age group is the oldest 65+—That's the power of Fox News, which informs a disproportionate number of seniors.

Read more here, or click the links above to see the charts directly. Public opinion will shift in interesting ways, and we'll all be able to see those shifts immediately, as they happen.

Trump bans all travel between U.S. and Europe, calls for tax cut, in plodding address to the nation, by Mark Sumner at Daily Kos. "To emphasize how far Trump feels the United States is ahead of Europe, he took one genuinely extraordinary action: ending all travel between the United States and Europe for 30 days beginning at midnight on Friday. Trump exempted the U.K. from this restriction, even though the U.K. has more cases than a number of European nations and just had its worst day for new cases on Wednesday. Such a restriction to travel to and from large parts of Europe has not happened since World War II." Stock futures immediately cratered, so you may be waking up to another steep market decline.

NBA season cancelled, ESPN. This is the moment everything changed. No one can ignore this now, or claim that it's just "the flu." Well, maybe conservatives will continue to insist that is so, see above. But other leagues will inevitably have to follow suit. Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson are infected. Parades and conventions and pretty much any gathering of any size are being banned. This is 9-11-level disruption to our lives, and it's not going to get any easier anytime soon.

There are zero good reasons for Warren to endorse Sanders, by me at Daily Kos. This probably lands in the "stop kicking the dead horse dead" territory, but it's still a burning demand in Bernie Sanders circles, so worth noting. Also worth nothing is top Sanders surrogate Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defended Elizabeth Warren for not endorsing: "I always want to see us come together as a progressive wing,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said. “I think that’s important and where we draw strength from. But at the same time, I come from the lens of an organizer, and if someone doesn’t do what you want, you don’t blame them — you ask why. And you don’t demand that answer of that person — you reflect. And that reflection is where you can grow." Beautiful, and so true. She has a bright future.  

Keep fighting,

Markos Moulitsas
Founder, Daily Kos

Daily Kos: @kos
Twitter: @markos
Instagram: @markos_Moulitsas

Daily Kos Relies on Readers Like You
We don't have billionaire sugar daddies like some right-wing media outlets. Half our revenue comes from readers like you, meaning we literally couldn't do this work without you. Can you chip in $5 right now to help Daily Kos keep fighting?
Chip in $5
If you wish to donate by mail instead, please send a check to:
Daily Kos, PO Box 70036, Oakland, CA, 94612.
Contributions to Daily Kos are not tax deductible.
Share Your Stories at DailyKos.com
Signing up for an account at Daily Kos is free, takes just a minute and allows you to post comments, write and publish your own stories and connect with the largest liberal community online.
Create a free account
Sent via ActionNetwork.org. To update your email address, change your name or address, or to stop receiving emails from Sign up to receive news and information from Markos Moulitsas, founder of Daily Kos, please click here.