IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Democrats should temper their enthusiasm – In this election, Republicans overperformed
By Edward A. Lynch
November 28, 2023
[The] razor-thin majorities the Democrats gained in the General Assembly election obscure some pertinent facts about the 2023 election and what it portends for 2024. A careful examination of the votes cast reveals some interesting stats. (These figures are all based on the returns, as recorded by the Virginia State Board of Elections, as of Nov. 13.)
Adding up the votes in all 40 State Senate races, the Democrats won 1.190 million votes to the Republicans’ 1.179 million, a difference of only about 11,000, or 0.5% of the total. Adding up the votes in all 100 House of Delegates races, the Democrats won 1.148 million to the Republicans’ 1.132 million, a difference of less than 16,000, or 0.7% of the total.
Thus, for all the hype, ball-spiking and Youngkin-bashing that Democrats have indulged in since Election Day, they barely managed a tie against Republicans.
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When the votes cast in the 35 uncontested House of Delegates races (20 for the Dems, 15 for the GOP) are eliminated, Republicans actually won the statewide vote, 832,213 to 821,933. Put differently, in the House races where voters knew their vote might make a difference, Republicans came out slightly ahead.
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The very small differences between the major parties come into even sharper relief when the closest races for each chamber are considered. As of Nov. 13, the two closest House races won by Democrats — District 21 (Prince William) and District 97 (Virginia Beach) — were decided by 2,134 votes. A switch of only 1,068 votes in those two districts and the Republicans would have a majority in the House. In the Senate, the two closest Democratic wins — District 30 (Prince William and Manassas) and District 31 (Fauquier and Loudoun) — were decided by 6,788 votes. A switch of 3,395 votes (out of 145,170 cast) in those districts, and Republicans would have a Senate majority, too (and Youngkin would look like a genius!).
The Democrats’ lackluster performance is also underlined by the advantages their party had going into the 2023 campaign. Independent analyses of the new House and Senate district lines showed 56 of 100 Delegates races solid or leaning Democratic. Winning 51 seats, while certainly an accomplishment, is far short of the outcome Democrats should have had. The continued Democrat majority in the Senate draws attention from the fact that the Democrats lost a seat.
Republicans were also seriously outspent in the 2023 campaigns. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Democratic House candidates raised $48 million to Republican candidates’ $36 million. The difference in the Senate was even greater: $62 million to $41 million.
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In 2020, Biden won Virginia, according to the official returns, by over 10 percentage points, the best showing by a Democrat in Virginia since the days of Franklin Roosevelt. Virginia was almost universally considered a solid blue state. But with Youngkin’s victory in 2021 and the Democrats’ underperformance in 2023 (with so many baked-in advantages), they have good reason to worry about Virginia in 2024. Republicans, for their part, have good reason to be hopeful. Virginia is a closely (and bitterly) divided commonwealth that is bright purple.
