From RAND Policy Currents <[email protected]>
Subject The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix
Date November 28, 2023 7:19 PM
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Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Nov. 28, 2023
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The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix

As with past conflicts in the Middle East, the Israel-Hamas war could provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region, says RAND's Brian Michael Jenkins.

The magnitude and shape of the terrorist threat that emerges will depend on a few key factors. These include how long the conflict lasts; whether Hezbollah or Iran decide on full-scale intervention; whether Israel launches a preemptive attack to stop Hezbollah or Iran; and whether America is drawn further into the fight.

It's also important to note that Hamas's attack on Israel and Israel's ongoing response in Gaza have produced intense emotional responses and opened deep chasms in American society. This could lead to increased violence or mass attacks on U.S. soil, Jenkins says.

The violence to come, he warns, could "resemble the savagery of the October 7 attacks in Israel--unrestrained, deliberately bloody, gestural cruelty."

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'Crime-Free Housing' Policies Don't Reduce Crime

Beginning in 1992, some cities across the country began adopting policies that either encourage or require owners of multi-unit housing complexes to evict tenants who are involved with the criminal justice system. In a new RAND study, researchers found no meaningful statistical evidence that such policies reduce crime. They did, however, find that these "crime-free housing" policies increased evictions in areas where more Black residents lived and where residents tended to have lower incomes.

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Logistics and Sustainment in the Russian Armed Forces

Since invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia's military has struggled mightily. What logistics and sustainment failures may have contributed to these issues? To find out, RAND's Marta Kepe reviewed dozens of unclassified documents and articles from Russian-language sources. She identified several systemic issues, including resource inefficiency in the military and the defense industry, inadequate warehousing for fuel and food, and corruption. These factors can be viewed as one part of Russia's larger, poorly planned and executed operation in Ukraine.

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** RAND Recommends
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- Today is Giving Tuesday. As a nonprofit organization, RAND relies on philanthropic support to tackle humanity's biggest problems--and improve the safety, heath, and prosperity of communities throughout the world.
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- On CBS News, RAND's Raphael Cohen discussed the hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Cohen said that, despite the intensity of the war, this agreement shows that diplomacy is possible--at least on very discrete issues.
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- In Newsweek, RAND's Wendy Troxel explained the many factors that can disrupt couples' sleep compatibility.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: Supporting Veterans After the Yellow Ribbons Fade
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 (Online)
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Pardee RAND Admissions Webinar: On-the-Job Training and Working at RAND
Thursday, November 30, 2023 (Online)
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Looking Ahead in Ukraine: What Could Increase the Risk of Escalation?
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 (Washington, D.C., or Online)
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