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From: Ron Hanks, Chairman, COGOP Ballot and Election Security Committee
To: Canvass Board Members, Election Watchers, County Chairs, Candidates, & All Interested Republicans
INVITATION
Briefing on Risk Limiting Audit Concerns
to be held
Tuesday, 28Nov2023 @7pm via Zoom Conference Call
Greetings,
As a follow-up to my 22Nov2023 letter, I invite all GOP members to a briefing on the problems and violations observed with the Risk Limiting Audits (RLA) in Colorado in November 2023.
See below for a document summarizing the RLA issues.
The Tuesday evening briefing will provide additional details and discuss the Call to Action.
Please join us via Zoom at 7pm on Tuesday, 28Nov2023. The link is also below.
Respectfully,
Ron Hanks
COGOP Ballot and Election Security Committee Chairman
Email: [email protected]
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Topic: Ballot and Election Security
Time: Nov 28, 2023 at 7:00pm Mountain Time (US and Canada)
Join Zoom Meeting
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/81209191476
Meeting ID: 812 0919 1476
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Meeting ID: 812 0919 1476
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RLA Call To Action Working Document
Election audits are needed to determine the extent of tabulation errors (either unintentional or intentional) and evaluate if these errors are sufficient to change the outcome of the election. In Colorado a Risk Limiting Audit (RLA) is the required method for auditing elections.
Problem: In November 2023, the Colorado Secretary of State (SOS) failed to conduct the RLA as required by Colorado Election Rule 25.
1. The RLA is used to determine if errors in tabulating the original ballots were of sufficient magnitude to change the outcome of the election. The SOS selects one contest to be audited in each county and 1 statewide race. Note that the results of the audit only apply to one contest per county. None of the other contests are audited.
2. The RLA requires that enough ballots be audited such that there is only a 3% chance (risk limit) of missing an incorrect outcome in the target contest. The number of audited ballots needed to meet the 3% risk limit depends on the contest margin. The smaller the margin, the more ballots should be audited. This includes the potential for a full hand recount for extremely small margins, especially if any errors are detected.
3. In 2023, the estimated sample size for audits ranged from 16 - 346 (median ~80) ballots. Close election outcomes may require thousands of ballots to be audited because a small number of errors can change the outcome when margins are small. The process of selecting contests effectively excludes the closest outcomes from being audited and reduces the chance that errors sufficient to change the outcome of an election will be detected. If only contests with moderate margins are audited as is usually the case in Colorado, RLAs are unlikely to detect errors large enough to change the election outcome unless massive tabulation errors occur.
4. The biased selection of contests to audit is a critical violation of the principles of the RLA methods, as established by reference in rule 25, and the election should not be certified on this basis.
5. In addition, the RLA process requires an independent hand count of the randomly selected ballots, as established by reference in Rule 25. By relying on the use of RLA software rather than conducting an independent hand count, the requirements for a valid RLA are not met.
Our County Clerks should follow the RLA procedures, as established by Rule 25, by correctly conducting a hand count audit for the closest race in each county. Because the RLA is essentially a partial hand recount (for the randomly selected ballots), the deadline for requesting a hand recount (Nov 29) may apply. Specifically, the correct number of ballots should be audited by hand count to meet a 3% risk limit for the closest race per county.
Call to Action:
1. Attend a zoom call on Tues Nov 28, at 7 pm for more details and discussion of next steps.
2. Ask your county canvass board members to not certify the election and submit a minority report by early Dec.
3. By Nov 29, recruit candidates in each county who lost by a smaller margin than the audited contest. Ask them to sign a letter to your County Clerk requesting a hand recount RLA be conducted for whichever of their contests has the smallest margin.
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