I saw an article that said up to 46% of jobs could be replaced by AI by 2030. Are you worried about this?
— Joe (via email)
Half the country losing our jobs — I’d say that’s pretty concerning! But then again, I’ve seen reports that it's more likely to affect white collar jobs than blue collar jobs. Accountants and lawyers might be at risk from AI, but ChatGPT is never going to be able to build you a house.
Seriously though, it’s out of fashion these days to have industry policy out of government. We used to have governments picking industry winners and losers based on what they thought was important to the national interest. Free markets saw that go by the wayside.
But if we’re going to lose 90% of jobs for lawyers, accountants, journalists, graphic designers, data analysts and other white-collar jobs, maybe we need a new kind of industry policy again.
We’re paying universities to put thousands of students through every year in jobs that aren’t going to exist in five years time. And we’re going to need 100,000 people trained in computer skills in the same time, and we’re not training anywhere near that.
The money we’re giving universities to put people through degrees that equip you for jobs that won’t exist isn’t going to good use. Maybe we could put that towards encouraging people — who are planning on studying in areas apart from digital skills — to study what we know we’re going to need. If they’re studying it for the incentives you’re going to have much more drop-outs, but you’ll have some who’ve never thought about a career in tech who find they love it, and those would be the ones you’d save from half a life on the unemployment grind. It’d be picking winners all over again, but at least that way you guarantee someone’s going to win.
Someone who doesn’t build houses, anyway.