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Welcome back to the Data for Progress newsletter, your update on our research, blog posts, and memes.

New Polls: Biden Has Narrow Leads in Washington and Idaho, Large Lead in Michigan
Last week, we were one of the only pollsters that surveyed respondents within the narrow time frame between the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday, and we correctly anticipated ([link removed]) Biden winning narrowly in Texas and Sanders winning California with a margin in the high single-digits.

Now, our polls show Biden in a strong position in this Tuesday’s primaries. With the race essentially down to two main contenders, Biden is narrowly leading ([link removed]) Sanders in Washington by a 49-43 margin and in Idaho by a 51-47 margin. He also has major leads in Michigan (59-38), Missouri (62-32), and Mississippi (77-22).

To be clear — we do not support a Biden nomination and will continue working to make sure that the one progressive candidate in the race will be the nominee. As a movement it’s important for us to have accurate data, whether we like what it says or not.

Voters Support Capping the Cost of the Coronavirus Vaccine
The COVID-19 death toll continues to rise, and we’re far away from developing a vaccine. But even if a vaccine were developed, would low-income Americans be able to afford it?

According to Trump’s Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, the U.S. government would not cap ([link removed]) the price of a coronavirus vaccine, meaning it could be unaffordable for many Americans. But a new DFP poll ([link removed]) shows that Americans disagree with Azar and want to cap the vaccine’s cost.

Our poll found that 56 percent of voters support capping the price, while just 22 percent oppose. This includes a majority of voters both under and over the age of 45, and both college educated and non-college educated.

Worried about a coronavirus-sparked recession? Julian Brave NoiseCat writes in a recent blog post ([link removed]) that a Green New Deal of expansionary fiscal policy — not just environmental taxation and deficit-hawking — is essential to combating climate change while putting upward pressure on long stagnant wages.

Sexism is Probably One Reason Why Warren Didn’t Do Better
Elizabeth Warren dropped out last Thursday. Although she looked like a frontrunner in the fall, she faded in the polls by December. What went wrong?

A wide variety of factors were at play, but one of them was likely sexism. We interviewed the same set of 1,619 Democratic voters in August 2019 and January 2020 and asked them whether they agreed or disagreed with four statements to gauge their levels of “hostile sexism.” What we found ([link removed]) was that Warren supporters displayed extremely low levels of hostile sexism, while the roughly one-third of voters who did not reject these sexist sentiments almost entirely supported other candidates.

We also found that the trait most predictive of whether a first-wave Warren supporter would support her in the second wave was how they responded to the hostile sexism battery.

For ‘20: Blaze It
In a new blog post ([link removed]) , we show that an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters — 80 percent — support legalizing marijuana. Just 14 percent oppose.

Furthermore, perhaps surprisingly, Democrats are even more supportive — 90 percent support, 6 percent oppose — of releasing people from prison who have been incarcerated for marijuana-related offenses and live in states where marijuana is now legal.

We also found that a topic that is receiving growing attention in the Democratic debates — reinvesting tax revenues from the sale of marijuana toward communities disproportionately impacted by the War on Drugs — is highly popular. 71 percent of Democratic voters support this proposal while 12 percent oppose.

In a separate criminal justice memo ([link removed]) , we argue in favor of “second-look” legislation, which would allow courts to reduce the sentences of individuals who pose no threat to community safety.

We find that these policies to reduce excessive prison sentences are popular across ideological, party, and geographic lines. 69 percent of voters support allowing for the re-examination of old sentences, including 81 percent of very liberal and 63 percent of very conservative (!!) Americans.


Memo: Why Workers Need Physical Spaces for Workplace Discussions
American workers have far fewer labor rights than their international counterparts, and this includes an inability for some workers to talk openly with coworkers about workplace issues free from managerial interference, supervision, or surveillance. In a recent survey ([link removed]) , we found that 24 percent of Americans with a high school diploma or less and 16 percent of Americans with some college experience say they “never” discuss problems with co-workers.

This is correlated with workers’ lack of a physical space to discuss problems with coworkers. Only 45 percent of high school or less workers have such a space, compared with 51 percent for those with some college and 62 percent for those with a college degree.

In the memo, we argue that requiring employers to provide these spaces could allow workers — especially less-educated workers — to reveal violations of labor rights and spur action to address those violations.

Democrats Support New Institutional Reforms and Want New Programs to Apply to Everyone
If the Democratic nominee wins the presidency, they will likely face an adversarial Senate and Supreme Court. In a recent poll ([link removed]) , we asked voters whether they’d prefer a persuasion-based strategy — hoping that Republicans come to their senses to pass progressive legislation, or mobilizing the people against Republicans — or an approach that replaces the filibuster with a simple majority vote, to overcome this.

We found that Democratic voters’ preferred approach is ending the filibuster and requiring a simple majority vote to pass legislation. 45 percent support this strategy, while 34 percent believe that ordinary people pressuring Republicans would be most effective and 21 percent favor simply persuading Republicans.

Another finding: a clear majority of Democrats — 50 percent to 32 percent — prefer universal programs to means-tested programs.

Data Bytes
* Memo: Americans Oppose a Hawkish Foreign Policy Against Iran: While tensions between the U.S. and Iran have temporarily calmed, the threat of a war in the region remains. The good news? A plurality of Americans are opposed to further U.S. military action in Iran.
In a new memo ([link removed]) , we show that 45 percent of Americans oppose further U.S. airstrikes or other military action in Iran, while 40 percent support.
We also find that a strong majority oppose an actual invasion of Iran (60 percent oppose, 26 percent support).
More broadly, we find that Americans oppose interfering in other countries’ internal affairs. 23 percent support this foreign interference, while 51 percent oppose.

* Vox: These are the popular ideas progressives can win with (and some unpopular ones to avoid): In a great Vox piece ([link removed]) , Matthew Yglesias covered our polling identifying the progressive policies that have some of the strongest support nationwide. These include majority support for revoking patents for the most expensive drugs, increasing government investment in pharmaceutical R&D, and allowing the government to manufacture generic pharmaceuticals.
Alongside progressive pharma policies, Americans also strongly support making the Clean Water Act stricter, capping credit card interest rates at 15 percent, providing 12 weeks of paid family leave, and giving free IUDs to women who want them.

* Democrats Support a Just Green New Deal: In a recent poll ([link removed]) , we asked Democratic voters whether they’d support a proposal to require that 40 percent of spending on clean energy would be targeted towards low-income communities. 62 percent support this policy — including a majority of moderate Democrats — while 19 percent oppose.

* Circular Economies: Polling on Zero-Waste: Climate change is not the only environmental issue the world is facing — waste is another. In a new memo ([link removed]) , we show through two separate polls that there is strong support for “a program that gives grants to states and cities to invest in composting and other waste disposal plans that don’t require new landfills or incinerators.”
Our poll in partnership with YouGov Blue found 71 percent support and 8 percent opposition for this proposal.



From The Blog
Michigan Polling Results ([link removed])
Biden Ahead in Michigan, Idaho and Washington ([link removed])
Decarbonization must be the Democrats’ Recession Plan ([link removed])
Biden Ahead in Missouri and Mississippi ([link removed])
Narrow Lead for Biden in Washington ([link removed])
Voters Support Capping the Cost of the Coronavirus Vaccine ([link removed])
Sexism is Probably One Reason Why Elizabeth Warren Didn't Do Better ([link removed])
For ‘20: Blaze It ([link removed])
It’s No Dirty Secret: Voters Love Pollution Disclosure ([link removed])
Sanders Leads in Texas and North Carolina ([link removed])
Democrats Support a Just Green New Deal ([link removed])
Biden Maintains Lead in South Carolina ([link removed])
Sanders Ahead in Virginia and Colorado ([link removed])
Democrats Support Institutional Reform And Want New Programs To Apply To Everyone ([link removed])
The Fingerprints Of The Green New Deal Are All Over The CLEAN Future Act ([link removed])

Media Hits
These are the popular ideas progressives can win with (and some unpopular ones to avoid) ([link removed]) @Vox
What Defines The Sanders Coalition? ([link removed]) @FiveThirtyEight
Down-ballot races are critical to turning Texas blue ([link removed]) @Washington Post
These Are the 7 Most Important Races for Progressives ([link removed]) @The Nation
Sanders could not beat Trump simply by mobilizing turnout. Here's why. ([link removed]) @CNN
Julian Brave NoiseCat on Democracy Now ([link removed]) @Democracy Now
Democratic Voters Want Senate Reform Now: Campaign Week in Review ([link removed]) @Rewire News
What the Polls Say About Today’s Primaries ([link removed]) @New York Times

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