“Somalia has one year to expel the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab militant group
from the country, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said on Tuesday, with the
deadline for remaining African Union peacekeepers to leave looming next
December. Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabaab has been waging a brutal insurgency
against the Somali government since 2006 in a bid to establish its own rule
based on a strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law. Mohamud, serving his
second term as president, said in August he wanted to eliminate it by early
next year. "The end game is Dec 2024 when all the ATMIS (the African Union
peacekeeping) forces have to leave the country," Mohamud told an audience at
London's Royal United Services Institute. The focus was on eliminating "the
residual" al Shabaab, he said. That task had been made more difficult by recent
deadly flooding, he said, although the floods have also made it harder for the
militants to spread landmines. Mohamud's recent drive against al Shabaab began
in August last year, with the military rallying behind clan-based militias in
central Somalia. That rare collaboration helped produce the most significant
territorial gains against the militants since the mid-2010s, but al Shabaab has
continued to stage deadly attacks against military and civilian targets.”











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**CEP's Eye on Extremism will be suspended on November 23-24. It will return
on Monday November 27.



Eye on Extremism



November 22, 2023



Reuters: Somalia Has Year To Eliminate Al Shabaab Militants - President
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“Somalia has one year to expel the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab militant group
from the country, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said on Tuesday, with the
deadline for remaining African Union peacekeepers to leave looming next
December. Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabaab has been waging a brutal insurgency
against the Somali government since 2006 in a bid to establish its own rule
based on a strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law. Mohamud, serving his
second term as president, said in August he wanted to eliminate it by early
next year. "The end game is Dec 2024 when all the ATMIS (the African Union
peacekeeping) forces have to leave the country," Mohamud told an audience at
London's Royal United Services Institute. The focus was on eliminating "the
residual" al Shabaab, he said. That task had been made more difficult by recent
deadly flooding, he said, although the floods have also made it harder for the
militants to spread landmines. Mohamud's recent drive against al Shabaab began
in August last year, with the military rallying behind clan-based militias in
central Somalia. That rare collaboration helped produce the most significant
territorial gains against the militants since the mid-2010s, but al Shabaab has
continued to stage deadly attacks against military and civilian targets.”


Reuters: US Reviewing Possible 'Terrorist' Designations For Houthis
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“The United States is reviewing "potential terrorist designations" for
Yemen's Houthi rebel group in response to its seizure of a cargo ship, White
House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Tuesday. Kirby's
comment was significant because one of the Biden administration's first acts
after taking office in January 2021 was revoking terrorist designations of the
Houthis over fears the sanctions they carried could worsen Yemen's humanitarian
crisis. The Iran-backed Houthis, who have been sending drones and long-range
missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas, seized the Galaxy Leader cargo
ship on Sunday in the southern Red Sea, describing it as Israeli-owned. Kirby
called the Houthis' seizure of the vessel a "flagrant violation of
international law" in which "Iran is complicit." "In light of this, we have
begun a review of potential terrorist designations and we will be considering
other options as well with our allies and partners as well," Kirby said at a
White House press briefing. He called for the immediate release of the ship and
its international crew. The Bahamas-flagged car carrier is chartered by Japan's
Nippon Yusen. It is owned by a firm registered under Isle of Man-headquartered
Ray Car Carriers, which is a unit of Tel Aviv-incorporated Ray Shipping,
according to LSEG data.”




The CEP CounterPoint: Expert Analysis

* ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in October 2023
<[link removed]>
* Violence-Oriented Right-Wing Extremist Actors in Russia: Night Wolves -
Part 2
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* Violence-Oriented Right-Wing Extremist Actors in Russia: Night Wolves -
Part 1
<[link removed]>
* CEP-KAS: Sahel Monitoring September 2023
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* Hamas’s Attack on Israel: This Must be a Moment of International Action
<[link removed]>



CEP Mentions



Outlook India: Israel-Hamas Deal For Release Of Hostages And Ceasefire In Gaza
Imminent: Report
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“…"The group’s ideology blends Islamism and Palestinian nationalism and seeks
the destruction of Israel and the creation of an Islamic state between the
Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River...Hamas views the entirety of the land
of Mandate Palestine—excluding the 80 per cent of Palestine that became
modern-day Jordan—as an Islamic birthright that has been usurped. To that end,
Hamas does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and has dedicated itself to
violently seeking Israel’s destruction," says think tank Counter Extremism
Project (CEP) about Hamas.”



Iraq



Reuters: U.S. Forces Carry Out Series Of Strikes Against Iran-Backed Militia
In Iraq
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“The United States carried out two series of strikes in Iraq against
Iranian-backed militants, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in the first publicly
reported U.S. responses in Iraq to dozens of recent attacks against troops in
the region. Until this week, the United States had been reluctant to retaliate
in Iraq because of the delicate political situation there. Iraqi Prime Minister
Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has limited control over the Iranian-backed militias,
whose support he needed to win power a year ago and who now form a powerful
bloc in his governing coalition. The strike on Tuesday evening targeted two
facilities in Iraq, the U.S. military said in a statement. "The strikes were in
direct response to the attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces by Iran and
Iran-backed groups," the statement said. The strike by fighter aircraft
targeted and destroyed a Kataeb Hezbollah operations center and a Kataeb
Hezbollah Command and Control node near Al Anbar and Jurf al Saqr, south of
Baghdad, a U.S. defense official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah militia is a powerful armed faction with close ties to
Iran. The official said there were Kataeb Hezbollah personnel present, but an
assessment was ongoing about casualties. About 24 hours earlier, U.S. forces
were attacked at an air base west of Baghdad and a U.S. military AC-130
aircraft responded in self-defense, killing a number of Iranian-backed
militants, U.S. officials said.”



Reuters: Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah Militia Says 5 Killed By US Strikes
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“Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah militia said five of its members were killed in its
stronghold of Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad, in U.S. strikes that Washington
said were in response to attacks by Iran-aligned militias against its forces in
the region. The U.S. carried out two series of strikes in Iraq on Tuesday and
Wednesday, its first publicly reported responses on Iraqi territory to dozens
of recent attacks and a sign of escalation in the regional conflict tied to the
Israel-Hamas war. The attacks began on Oct. 17 and have been linked by Iraqi
militia groups to U.S. support for Israel in its bombardment of Gaza following
attacks by Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel. The strike by fighter
aircraft targeted and destroyed a Kataib Hezbollah operations centre and a
command and control node near Al Anbar and Jurf Al-Sakhar, a U.S. defence
official said. An Iraqi military official said at least three members of Kataib
Hezbollah had been killed and seven wounded in the overnight U.S. strikes.
Kataib Hezbollah is part of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, a group of many
mainly Shi'ite Muslim armed groups that was formed in 2014 to fight Islamic
State and subsequently recognised as an official security agency by Iraq's
government. Until this week, the United States had been reluctant to retaliate
in Iraq because of the delicate political situation in Baghdad, where they have
sought closer cooperation, including on financial issues, while seeking to
limit Iran's influence.”



Middle East



The New York Times: Political Pressures On Biden Helped Drive ‘Secret Cell’ Of
Aides In Hostage Talks
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“Israel’s acceptance of the terms of a hostage deal with Hamas late on
Tuesday reflected the intense pressure brought by the Biden administration to
reach an agreement that would free some of those held by the armed group and
produce potential longer-term opportunities to de-escalate the conflict. The
initial approval of the deal by the Israeli cabinet came after a “secret cell”
of top aides to President Biden worked furiously over the past several weeks on
a web of negotiations involving Qatar, Egypt and Israel, an effort hampered by
communications outages in Gaza and a series of last-minute disputes that
derailed the talks. White House officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity
to discuss the five weeks of sensitive negotiations that had led to a deal,
said the agreement would include the release of three Americans: two women and
a toddler. The officials said they would continue to push for the release of
all U.S. hostages.”



Associated Press: Truce Deal Set To Free Hostages In Swap, Raising Hopes Of
Halting Worst Mideast Violence In Decades
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“Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement for a four-day halt to the
devastating war in Gaza, accompanied by the release of dozens of hostages held
by the militant group in return for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel,
mediators said Wednesday. The truce marks the biggest diplomatic breakthrough
since Hamas’ Oct. 7 rampage into southern Israel ignited a war that has
devastated vast swaths of Gaza, fueled a surge of violence in the occupied West
Bank and raised fears of a wider conflict across the Middle East. The Persian
Gulf nation of Qatar, which has played a key role in mediating with Hamas,
announced the deal without saying when it would go into effect. Fifty hostages
will be released in stages, in exchange for what Hamas said would be 150
Palestinian prisoners. Both sides will release women and children first, and
the supply of humanitarian aid flowing into the besieged territory will be
ramped up. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would resume the war
after the truce and keep fighting “until we achieve all our goals,” including
the defeat of Hamas and the return of all hostages. Residents in Gaza City said
the fighting there had intensified overnight into Wednesday, with gunfire,
heavy artillery and airstrikes in central neighborhoods.“They are mad.
Apparently they want to advance before the truce,” said Nasser al-Sheikh, who
is sheltering with relatives in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood.”



Reuters: Pope Says Israel-Hamas Conflict Has Gone Beyond War To ‘Terrorism'
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“Pope Francis on Wednesday met separately with Israeli relatives of hostages
held by Hamas and Palestinians with family in Gaza and said the conflict had
gone beyond war to become "terrorism". Speaking in unscripted remarks at his
general audience in St. Peter's Square shortly after the meetings in his
residence, Francis said he heard directly how "both sides are suffering" in the
conflict. "This is what wars do. But here we have gone beyond wars. This is not
war. This is terrorism," he said. He asked for prayers so that both sides would
"not go ahead with passions, which, in the end, kill everyone". A group of
Palestinians in the crowd at the audience held up pictures of bodies wrapped in
white cloth and a placard saying "the Nakba continues". Nakba is the Arab word
for catastrophe and refers to the displacement and dispossession of
Palestinians in the 1948 war that surrounded Israel's founding. Both groups of
relatives will hold separate news conferences later on Wednesday. The meetings
and the pope's comments came hours after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire
in Gaza for at least four days to allow in aid and release at least 50 hostages
captured by militants in exchange for at least 150 Palestinians jailed in
Israel.”



Africa



Associated Press: Latest Peace Talks Between Ethiopia’s Government And Oromo
Militants Break Up Without An Agreement
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“The latest round of peace talks between Ethiopia’s federal government and a
militant group waging a long-running conflict in the country’s Oromia region
have broken up in Tanzania without an agreement, both sides said Tuesday. The
Oromo Liberation Army says it is fighting for greater determination for the
Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, who have long claimed being
marginalized. The insurgency stretches back to the 1970s but has escalated in
recent years, killing thousands and rendering lawless vast swathes of Oromia,
Ethiopia’s largest region. The OLA has been listed as a terrorist group in
Ethiopia, and the government has accused it of carrying out mass killings
against ethnic minorities. A previous round of talks between the OLA and
Ethiopian officials in Tanzania earlier this year also failed. Redwan Hussein,
the prime minister’s national security advisor, blamed the “intransigence” of
the OLA for the latest failure. “The obstructive approach and unrealistic
demands of the other party are the principal reasons why these talks could not
succeed,” Redwan wrote on X, formerly Twitter. An OLA statement accused
Ethiopia’s government of trying to co-opt its leadership “rather than beginning
to address fundamental problems that underlie the country’s seemingly
insurmountable security and political challenges.””



Technology



The Guardian: Rightwing Personalities Use X To Bring Antisemitic Theories To
Light In US
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“The racist and antisemitic “great replacement” theory is encroaching out of
the far right and more visibly into mainstream US politics in the wake of its
platforming by major figures like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson, in a move
experts believe shows the growing extremeness of rightwing politics in the US.
High-profile users of Twitter/X including rightwing personality Carlson and the
platform’s proprietor Musk, are helping to mainstream extremist narratives that
are increasingly prevalent on the site, experts and advocates say. Despite
Musk’s aggressive responses to organizations that criticize X for promoting
extremism, white nationalists and other extremists last week took to the
platform to celebrate the role of Musk, his platform and star attractions
including Carlson for “shifting the Overton Window” on antisemitism. The “great
replacement” is a racist conspiracy narrative that falsely asserts there is an
active, ongoing and covert effort to replace white populations in current
white-majority countries. In many versions – such as those rehearsed in the
manifestos of mass shooters in Christchurch, New Zealand; El Paso, Texas; and
Buffalo, New York – the purported replacement is being coordinated by Jewish
people.”



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