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Welcome to the Tuesday, March 10, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Six more states hold presidential primary elections today
- Four of the states voting in today’s primaries have Pivot Counties
- An overview of state legislative party membership in Feb. 2020: 52.3% Republicans, 46.8% Democrats
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Six more states hold presidential primary elections today
A week after Super Tuesday, six more states — Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington — are holding presidential primaries, with 325 pledged Democratic delegates at stake.
Michigan, with its 125 pledged delegates, is the biggest prize in today's primaries. Eighty-nine delegates are at stake in Washington state, followed by Missouri with 68. Mississippi, Idaho, and North Dakota will award 36, 20, and 14 pledged delegates, respectively. Democrats Abroad are also concluding their presidential primaries today after their vote began on Super Tuesday. They will award 13 pledged delegates, bringing the total delegate count awarded March 10 to 365.
Heading into today’s primaries, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pledged delegate count with 638. Sen. Bernie Sanders is next with 563 pledged delegates. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has two. As in all Democratic primaries, pledged delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates who receive at least 15% of the total vote. Due to early voting, however, some of the candidates who have already withdrawn from the race may receive delegates in today’s primaries. Idaho, Michigan, and North Dakota permit no-excuse early voting, while Mississippi and Missouri do not allow early voting. Washington state uses an all-mail voting system, which eliminates the need for early voting.
As we highlighted in yesterday’s Brew, pledged delegates awarded to the four Democratic presidential candidates who later withdrew from the race can be reallocated in some states.
Michigan is the only state voting today with laws that provide instructions for the release of these delegates. Michigan’s statute specifies that pledged delegates are released from their commitment to vote for a candidate “by the withdrawal of that presidential candidate from contention for that party’s nomination” (Michigan Election Law, Section 168.619). Michigan voters who received but have not submitted absentee ballots can spoil, or cancel, their original ballots by bringing them to the polls today and requesting a new ballot. Absentee voters who already mailed their ballots had until 4:00 pm Monday to spoil their ballots. However, they can’t change their vote on election
day.
As we gear up for tonight’s results, let’s look back at how the six states voting today voted in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries. Sen. Bernie Sanders won four of the six races back in 2016. Heading into Michigan, polls showed Clinton leading by 11-30 points. Sanders' 2016 win in Michigan, combined with the state's large delegate haul, means it's getting a lot of attention today. Here are the 2016 Democratic primary results from the other five states:
- Washington: Sanders defeated Clinton 72.7% to 27.1% and carried every county in the state.
- Missouri: Clinton defeated Sanders 49.6% to 49.4%.
- Mississippi: Clinton defeated Sanders 83% to 17% and won every county in the state.
- Idaho: Sanders beat Clinton 78% to 21.2%.
- North Dakota: Sanders defeated Clinton 65.2% to 25.6%.
After today’s primaries, the next important date in the Democratic presidential nomination process is the debate in Phoenix, Arizona on March 15. To qualify, a candidate must receive at least 20% of the pledged delegates awarded in primary contests up to the day of the debate. Biden and Sanders will qualify. With her pledged delegate count of two, it is mathematically impossible for Gabbard to qualify for the debate.
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Four the states voting in today’s primaries have Pivot Counties
Of the six states holding presidential primaries today, four have at least two Pivot Counties. Michigan has both the highest number of Pivot Counties (12) and the largest percentage of its state population living in those counties (18.36%). It is followed by Washington with five Pivot Counties making up 4.74% of its state population, North Dakota with four Pivot Counties making up 2.56% of its population, and Mississippi with two Pivot Counties making up 3.09% of its population.
Pivot Counties are those counties Ballotpedia identified that voted twice for President Obama and then voted for President Trump in 2016. There are 206 Pivot Counties nationwide.
We have been looking at the change in Democratic raw voter turnout in Pivot Counties across the early contests in February and the Super Tuesday states. With results available for 10 of the 12 states with Pivot Counties, here's a summary of turnout:
- In nine of 10 states, Pivot County voter turnout in Democratic primaries was down compared to statewide turnout.
- Pivot County voter turnout declined in at least five of seven Super Tuesday states compared to 2016 Democratic primary results.
- New Hampshire is the only state so far where an increase in voter turnout in Pivot Counties (18.6%) exceeded that of non-Pivot Counties (17.7%).
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An overview of state legislative party membership in Feb. 2020: 52.3% Republicans, 46.8% Democrats
Ballotpedia tallies the partisan balance of state legislatures at the end of every month, and I’m excited to share with you our February count. Of the nation’s 7,383 state legislators, 52.3% are Republicans and 46.8% are Democrats.
Partisan balance means which party holds the majority of seats in each chamber. Republicans hold a majority in 59 chambers, and Democrats hold the majority in 39 chambers. One chamber (Alaska’s state House) has a power-sharing agreement between the two parties.
Here are a few more facts for you:
- There are 7,383 state legislative seats—1,972 state Senate and 5,411 state House offices.
- Republicans hold 3,859 state legislative seats—1,084 state Senate seats (down one seat from January) and 2,775 state House seats (up four seats from last month).
- Democrats hold 3,455 state legislative seats—874 state Senate seats (consistent with January) and 2,581 state House seats (up three from last month).
- Independent or third-party legislators hold 34 seats. There are 35 vacant seats—a decrease of six vacancies since January.
At the time of the 2018 elections, 7,280 state legislators were affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic parties. There were 3,257 Democratic state legislators, 4,023 Republican state legislators, 35 independent or third-party state legislators, and 68 vacancies.
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
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