The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released our initial analysis of the October Employment Report from the California Employment Development Department. For additional information and data about the California economy visit www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

The October data finally reported positive results on the jobs front.  Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) in October were up 40,200, and September’s total was revised upwards by 5,700.  These numbers reversed the weakness of the prior three months, which combined saw nonfarm jobs up by only 22,000.

The same, however, cannot be said of employment—the number of people working—which came in negative for the fourth month in a row.  Since July, total employment has now dropped 112,200, while the unemployment rate has continued to climb.

Using the unadjusted series to provide a more detailed look at jobs by industry wage level compared to the pre-pandemic peak, the lower wage industries continue to lead while the higher wage industries now lag the overall pace of recovery.

Compared to the pre-pandemic peak in February 2020, California’s continued weak employment recovery again posted 7th worst among the states and DC.

California’s stronger October job performance came in first among the states, followed by Florida (28,400) and Washington (7,900). Compared to the pre-pandemic peak, California has now gained 482,300 nonfarm jobs, still in third behind Texas (1,076,900) and Florida (756,400).  Adjusted for size, California again ranked 21st highest, just below the US average.

The state budget-critical Bay Area nonfarm job numbers turned positive in September, while Los Angeles Region again experienced stronger growth.  Compared to the pre-pandemic high, net jobs growth remains the strongest in the interior regions and San Diego.

Because the data in the table is seasonally adjusted, the numbers should be considered as the total for the counties in each region rather than the regional number.  This job series also is not available for all areas in California.

Unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) compared to pre-pandemic February 2020 are shown below.   The smaller rural regions and Central Valley show stronger recovery based on this metric, while lagging performance in the state’s major population centers contribute to the state’s high overall rate.

The same general pattern is also shown in the employment recovery numbers (not seasonally adjusted).  Population loss especially in Los Angeles Region and Bay Area continue to hold down overall employment levels.

In September, California contained 11 of the MSAs among the 25 urban areas with the worst unemployment rates, including the worst region of the country in El Centro MSA (Imperial County) and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA tying with Brownsville-Harlingen, TX for the 25th worst.  Another 3 California MSAs—Redding, Chico, and Riverside-San Bernardino MSAs--fell just on the other side of the worst 24.  San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA moved back into the highest ranked for California, tied at #179 with 11 other MSAs with an unemployment rate of 3.3%.