The Latest from the Prospect
 â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â
Â
View this email in your browser
**NOVEMBER 17, 2023**
On the Prospect website
The Squad Faces Its Biggest Political Challenge Yet
In 2024, the most progressive Democrats in the House face attacks from
several directions. BY RAMENDA CYRUS
The Supreme Court's Objectivity Theater
The Court wrote a new ethics code for itself. It's all but
meaningless. BY MAX MORAN
Right-Wing School Board Groups Posted Losses at the Ballot Box
Voters rejected groups like Moms for Liberty. But conservative activists
don't need a majority to whittle away trust in public education. BY
JAROD FACUNDO
A Land for All
An idea for a confederal system for Israel and Palestine is impossible
to enact today. But it's a vision that must be worked toward. BY ARIEL
RON
Kuttner on TAP
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
**** Foolish Chatter About Recession
What's really going on with the economy?
It sure looks as if the economy is on track to achieve the long-sought,
elusive "soft landing."
What's a soft landing? It's a metaphor, and like all metaphors
applied to matters economic, it can be misleading. But most people use
"soft landing" to mean an end to the recent bout of inflation without
the need for a recession.
Inflation was flat last month according to the latest Consumer Price
Index report from the Labor Department. Core
CPI, which excludes food and energy, hit a two-year low. And food and
fuel prices are also trending down.
The stock market reacted to the good inflation news by soaring. Low
inflation means that the Fed is more likely to take its foot off the
monetary brake, further reducing the risk of recession.
Even Larry Summers, who relentlessly and mistakenly blamed the bout of
inflation on Biden stimulus programs, partly recanted. Speaking on
**Wall Street Week**, he admitted that many factors were transitory
,
and that the risk of recession was now 25 percent or less.
[link removed]
But there are often skunks at picnics. On a Thursday earnings phone call
with stock analysts, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon warned of the risks of
deflation
.
Unlike disinflation, which is beneficial, deflation means seriously
falling prices, and that can both portend and cause a recession.
However, if you look at what's actually going on in the economy, some
prices are declining slightly, but only relative to a more than two-year
rise, just as we want them to do. For instance, turkey prices are down
4.5 percent from last year's record
,
according to the American Farm Bureau Federation
.
That's hardly deflation. McMillon was using some price drops as an
alibi for the fact that Walmart's third-quarter profit numbers were
below expectations.
The economy is doing just about what we want it to do; and now there
should be more room for worker raises. As the UAW victory suggests, that
has more to do with worker power than with macroeconomics. Corporate
America's outsized profits indicate that there is no reason for raises
to be inflationary.
Let's hope that the Federal Reserve gets the message and finally,
belatedly, cuts interest rates, to let a benign economy realize its full
potential.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter
[link removed]
To receive this newsletter directly in your inbox, click here to
subscribe.Â
Click to Share this Newsletter
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
YOUR TAX DEDUCTIBLE DONATION SUPPORTS INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM
The American Prospect, Inc., 1225 I Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC xxxxxx, United States
Copyright (c) 2023 The American Prospect. All rights reserved.
To opt out of American Prospect membership messaging, click here
.
To manage your newsletter preferences, click here
.
To unsubscribe from all American Prospect emails, including newsletters,
click here
.
