Where do union households who voted Trump go?                                                       
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March 9, 2020

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Can pro-NAFTA, pro-PNTR w/ China Joe Biden win in Michigan?
Four years ago, President Donald Trump shocked the world when he beat Hillary Clinton in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin by uniting union households that had traditionally voted Democratic and conservatives on the strength of his America first message on trade and immigration. Trump’s appeal to working class voters — opposing the NAFTA, China WTO membership and permanent normalized trade relations with China, as well as combatting illegal immigration to protect American jobs — is what put him over the top. Since 2016, the electoral map has not changed that much. Trump needs to once again carry these Rust Belt states to be reelected. That makes turning those states back blue the Democrats’ number one task in 2020. But to win back those traditional Democratic households in the Rust Belt who voted for Trump in 2016, is former Vice President Joe Biden — who voted for NAFTA and permanent normal trade with China and proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership — really Democrats’ best choice?

Video: Coronavirus doesn't make jobs report ill, what's up with rates and new polls
U.S. unemployment remains at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent as interest rates collapse in the wake of global economic concern.

Newt Gingrich: The Biden-Sanders dilemma the Democratic Party now faces
“[I]f Biden over-emphasizes his differences with Sanders, he may make the convention in Milwaukee unmanageable. The left-wing activists might see the party establishment once again supposedly stealing the nomination from the left-wing challenger. Biden must be asking himself if his major goal should be, like Bill Clinton in 1992, to find a ‘Sister Souljah’ moment to take on the hard left and repudiate one of its more unpopular positions. Or, should Biden adopt the principle of “no enemies to the left” and keep absorbing the ideas and proposals of Sanders and his supporters? This could lead to a more unified Democratic National Convention – but unity might come at the expense of independent voters and moderate Democrats who conclude that Biden is so close to the Sanders’ positions that he is simply too big a risk to become president.”


 

Can pro-NAFTA, pro-PNTR w/ China Joe Biden win in Michigan?

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By Robert Romano

Four years ago, President Donald Trump shocked the world when he beat Hillary Clinton in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin by uniting union households that had traditionally voted Democratic with conservatives on the strength of his America first message on trade and immigration.

Trump’s appeal to working class voters — opposing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), China membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) as well as permanent normalized trade relations, and combating illegal immigration to protect American jobs — is what put him over the top.

Trump’s critics warned there would be no trade deals, and instead a trade war.

Now, four years later, President Trump is touting a 50-year low in in unemployment, sustained growth and new reciprocal trade deals with Mexico, Canada and China. The wall is being built. Illegal immigration is way down with the Remain in Mexico policy in effect. Trump ended NAFTA, and got China to agree to a trade deal even though there’s still a 25 percent tariff being levied, even as the trade in goods deficit with China collapsed by more than 17.6 percent in 2019, or $73.9 billion.

Trump proved that with the effective use of U.S. economic power and leverage — emerging markets still want to sell goods to Americans — better agreements in U.S. interests could be had to bring production back here and enlist our neighbors to help control migration into the U.S.

And Trump can make the case that nobody else would have even tried to get those things done by threatening and levying tariffs, because no other president ever had in modern history. By that measure, Trump’s policies were a success, because they brought trade partners to the table and ultimately hammered out agreements that received wide bipartisan support.

Since 2016, the electoral map has not changed that much. Trump still needs to carry these Rust Belt states to be reelected. That makes turning those states back blue the Democrats’ number one task in 2020.

But to win back those traditional Democratic households in the Rust Belt who voted for Trump in 2016, is former Vice President Joe Biden — who voted for NAFTA and permanent normal trade with China and proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership — really Democrats’ best choice?

The answer may come in part on Tuesday, March 10 when the Michigan primary occurs. In 2016, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, beat Hillary Clinton narrowly in Michigan, exposing deep divisions in the Democratic Party around the issue of trade, with union households favoring Sanders — all forecasting Trump’s eventual victory there.

Even with a comfortable lead for Biden in the polls, about a third of Democrats remain committed to Sanders, exposing Biden’s weakness on trade just like it did for Clinton in 2016 — and leaving an opening for Trump to once again exploit divisions among Democrats.

Biden may just have too much momentum to be slowed down now in the Democratic contest. But in the rush to stop Bernie, however, have Democrats’ paused to consider Biden’s baggage? Where do Bernie supporters in Michigan, particularly those union households, go? That is the crack in the Democratic coalition that Trump will try to take advantage of in November again, with history suggesting it will pay off.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Pubic Policy at Americans for Limited Government.


Video: Coronavirus doesn't make jobs report ill, what's up with rates and new polls

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To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9a6T-ndlX3s


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ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured column from Fox News, Newt Gingrich notes the balancing act Joe Biden will have to pull off to unite Democrats in 2020:

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Newt Gingrich: The Biden-Sanders dilemma the Democratic Party now faces

By Newt Gingrich

One week ago, no one expected the current race for the Democratic nomination.

Remember this the next time you see or hear one of us so-called experts on television or radio confidently predicting a future we don’t understand.

With the backdrop of the emerging coronavirus threat, the wild swings in the stock market, the signing of an Afghanistan peace plan, the Chuck Schumer attack on Supreme Court justices, here is what happened in seven short days.

Former Vice President Joe Biden went from being almost out of the race to being the front runner and probable nominee.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., went from being the strong front runner and probable nominee – who was going to sweep Super Tuesday – to being a battered and isolated challenger underdog who may not have a path to the nomination.

Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg went from being a media darling, to having an incredibly weak showing in South Carolina, to withdrawing and endorsing Biden.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., got remarkably few votes in South Carolina and faced a devastating series of defeats on Tuesday. So, she withdrew, endorsed Biden, and flew to Texas to join him on stage at a rally on the evening before the state’s primary.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, after spending more than $620 million, figured out his debate disasters had wiped out the positive effect of his advertising and withdrew, also throwing his support to Biden.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, emerged from obscurity to endorse Biden before the Texas primary and locked Biden into an anti-gun (potentially gun confiscation) position.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., stayed in a few extra days, but after coming in third in her home state to Biden and Sanders decided she, too, was withdrawing. As of now, she has not endorsed anyone (although remember in 2016 she endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Sanders).

Now, the race is down to Biden and Sanders, with the Democratic National Committee preparing to change its debate eligibility rules to keep Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, off the debate stage. Standing with two old white guys, she could maybe make an appealing contrast and represent a last stand for diversity – but not with the Democratic establishment that hates her firmly in control.

Biden and Sanders find themselves with real dilemmas, but the dilemmas are different for each candidate.

In Biden’s case, he is already looking ahead to the general election against President Trump. A major selling point in the flood of endorsements is the belief among establishment Democrats that Sanders is simply too far to the left. So, one challenge for Biden will be to communicate that he is more reasonable. (His campaign and the media will use the word “moderate,” but the fact is Biden is well to the left of Obama and without Sanders in the race it would be obvious how many of Biden’s positions are opposed by most of the American people.)

However, if Biden over-emphasizes his differences with Sanders, he may make the convention in Milwaukee unmanageable. The left-wing activists might see the party establishment once again supposedly stealing the nomination from the left-wing challenger.

Biden must be asking himself if his major goal should be, like Bill Clinton in 1992, to find a “Sister Souljah” moment to take on the hard left and repudiate one of its more unpopular positions. Or, should Biden adopt the principle of “no enemies to the left” and keep absorbing the ideas and proposals of Sanders and his supporters? This could lead to a more unified Democratic National Convention – but unity might come at the expense of independent voters and moderate Democrats who conclude that Biden is so close to the Sanders’ positions that he is simply too big a risk to become president.

Meanwhile, Sanders has his own dilemma.

If he wants to become the Democratic nominee, he has to take Biden down. This means speeches, advertising, and debate performances that are harshly critical of Biden and expose his many weaknesses. Biden is potentially susceptible to attacks on his family making money overseas, or his past positions to a whole series of issues which now run afoul of left-wing canon.

Still, a truly effective, harsh assault on Biden may alienate those Democrats whose primary focus is on how to beat President Trump. There may be a real penalty among party loyalists for either candidate if they are seen as weakening the Democratic Party’s chance to beat the president.

All of this will begin to be obvious in the next few days.

Sanders cannot get back into the nomination race without forcing major differences with Biden and pushing the former vice president in the hope that Biden will make a major mistake.

Biden cannot become passive and look toward the general election until Sanders has been defeated. Bloomberg’s passive debate performance was a vivid reminder that remaining passive while being attacked looks like a combination of weakness and guilt.

The race is very different than we thought it would be a week ago, but it remains incredibly interesting – and in many ways still capable of great surprises.

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