Poll shows Biden winning national popular vote

by 2 million votes in 2024, but

Trump winning Electoral College

A new poll released today shows that the candidate winning the most popular votes nationwide next year would likely lose the presidency -- repeating what happened in 2016 and 2000.

According to Forbes magazine:

"Biden would win the popular vote." ...

"Trump would win 292 electoral college votes, compared to Biden’s 246, according to the study released Monday from Stack Data Strategy."

Politico reports:

"Trump’s projected victory is based on him winning the four states that were decided by the closest margin in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin." 

Stack Data Strategy's dashboard shows the poll results by state, the results with different candidates, and Biden's popular-vote lead of 1.23% (which amounts to 2 million votes out of 158 million). 15,000 people were polled.

You can help change the current system of electing the President by asking your state legislators to pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

WHAT NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE WILL DO

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will

• guarantee the presidency to the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states and DC,
• apply the one-person-one-vote principle to presidential elections,
• give candidates a reason to campaign in all 50 states, because every voter, in every state, will be politically relevant in every presidential election,
• increase voter turnout, and
• help ensure the peaceful transfer of power in presidential elections.

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE IS ACHIEVABLE

Sixteen states and the District of Columbia (with 205 electoral votes) have already enacted the National Popular Vote Compact into law. This includes 4 small states (Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont), 9 medium-sized states (Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington), 3 big states (California, Illinois, New York), and the District of Columbia.

The National Popular Vote Compact will take effect when passed by states with an additional 65 electoral votes. The Compact has passed one legislative chamber in 8 additional states with another 78 electoral votes (Arkansas, Arizona, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, Virginia).

HOW NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE WORKS

The current winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes is not in the U.S. Constitution and was never mentioned at the 1787 Constitutional Convention or in the Federalist Papers.

The Constitution gives the states exclusive control over the choice of method of awarding their electoral votes—thereby giving the states a built-in way to reform the system.  Specifically, Article II, section 1 says, “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors….”

A state's winner-take-all law may be changed in the same manner as it was originally enacted, namely by passage of a new state law.

The National Popular Vote law will take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). Then, the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC will get all the electoral votes from all of the enacting states. That is, the candidate receiving the most popular votes nationwide will be guaranteed enough electoral votes to become President.

Under the National Popular Vote law, no voter will have their vote cancelled out at the state-level because their choice differed from majority sentiment in their state. Instead, every voter’s vote will be added directly into the national count for the candidate of their choice. This will ensure that every voter, in every state, will be politically relevant in every presidential election—regardless of where they live.

• Introductory video (8 minutes)
• One-page description of National Popular Vote

SHORTCOMINGS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM

The shortcomings of the current system of electing the President stem from existing state laws that award all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in the state.

• Five of our 46 Presidents came into office without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
• The current state-by-state winner-take-all system regularly enables a few thousand votes in a small number of states to decide the Presidency—thereby fueling post-election controversies and threatening the country’s stability.
• Every vote is not equal throughout the United States under the current system.
• The current system could easily result in the U.S. House of Representatives choosing the President on a one-state-one-vote basis.

Details