Daily News Brief
March 09, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
Saudi Arabia Hikes Oil Output, Sparks Price War
Saudi Arabia announced plans to up its oil output (FT) and slash prices after Russia failed to join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in capping output. The apparent attempt to force Moscow’s return to a consensus triggered what could become oil prices’ worst day (CNN) since 1991.
 
OPEC’s proposal to cut supplies by 1.5 million barrels per day aimed to counter (NYT) a drop in global oil demand caused by the new coronavirus, but Russia announced last week that it would not comply with the cap. OPEC’s cooperation in recent years has propped up the price of oil, but ceded market share (Economist) to American shale.
Analysis
“Saudi Arabia’s latest moves mark a dramatic escalation. The kingdom has long played the role of ‘swing’ producer, raising or lowering output as required to keep prices stable,” writes the Economist.
 
“If you are Russia, it’s worth it for you to take a three-month price hit to see if you can knock out U.S. oil exports,” CFR’s Amy Myers Jaffe told the New York Times.

Pacific Rim
North Korea Launches Projectiles
North Korea launched three projectiles (Yonhap) into the Sea of Japan as part of an apparent military exercise, South Korea’s military said. China’s foreign ministry called for (Reuters) denuclearization and dialogue.

South and Central Asia
Afghan Election Rivals Hold Parallel Inaugurations
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah are each holding inauguration ceremonies (TOLO) today after both claimed victory in presidential elections. Official results recognized Ghani as the victor and high-ranking U.S. officials are attending (TOLO) his ceremony. Some politicians, such as former President Hamid Karzai, are not attending either event.
 
India: The government of northern Uttar Pradesh state refused to remove (Reuters) billboards displaying the names, pictures, and addresses of alleged anti-government protesters, despite a top court’s request to remove them.

Middle East and North Africa
Lebanon Defaults on Foreign Currency Debt
Lebanon will not repay (FT) $1.2 billion worth of foreign currency debt due today in its first such default. Prime Minister Hassan Diab said the government will seek to restructure its debt amid a deep economic crisis.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sudanese Prime Minister Survives Apparent Assassination Attempt
A bomb exploded (Sudan Tribune) near Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s motorcade this morning. State media reported Hamdok survived an assassination attempt (AP).
 
In the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin looks at the challenges facing Sudan in 2020.
 
Somalia: Senior al-Shabab leader Bashir Mohamed Mahamoud was likely killed in a U.S. drone strike last month, the U.S. military told Voice of America. His family told state radio he died in an air strike (National).

Europe
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 Trial Begins
The trial of three Russians and a Ukranian accused of shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014 begins today (Al Jazeera) in the Netherlands. The suspects, who are linked to pro-Moscow Ukranian separatists, face murder charges for the 298 people onboard the plane.
 
Belgium: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with EU leaders (FT) in Brussels today to discuss Turkey’s management of its European borders.

Americas
Mexican Women Strike Against Gender-Based Violence
Mexican women held a nationwide strike (WaPo) today against gender-based violence. Government offices, universities, and companies such as Walmart agreed not to penalize strike participants.
 
This CFR In Brief looks at how women in Mexico are pushing back against gender-based violence.
 
Brazil: U.S. President Donald J. Trump hosted (NYT) Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida as part of Bolsonaro’s four-day visit to the United States.

United States
Coronavirus Reported in Thirty-Four States
At least thirty-four U.S. states (CNN) have reported cases of the new coronavirus, and a cruise ship with twenty-one confirmed cases is expected to dock in Oakland, California, today.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Catherine Machalaba and William B. Karesh outline a plan to fight pandemics.

Global
Global Arms Transfers Up 5.5 Percent From Previous Half Decade
International arms transfers between 2015 and 2019 rose 5.5 percent compared to the 2010–2014 period, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Between the two periods, U.S. arms exports grew by 23 percent, and French exports by 72 percent.
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