March 9, 2020: Pivot County voter turnout declined in five of seven Super Tuesday states (compared to the 2016 Democratic Primary results).
Two states—Minnesota and Virginia—saw an increase in Pivot County turnout. However, in both those states, the Pivot Counties saw a smaller increase than other counties statewide.[1]
Pivot Counties are those counties identified by Ballotpedia that voted twice for President Obama and then voted for President Trump in 2016. There are 206 Pivot Counties nationwide.
- Arkansas: Woodruff County, Arkansas’ only Pivot County, had a 48.5% decrease in Democratic turnout. Statewide Democratic turnout was up 3%.
- Minnesota: Nineteen counties (or about one in five counties) in Minnesota are Pivot Counties. Democratic turnout was up 243% in Pivot Counties and 263% statewide. In 2020, more than 745,000 people voted in the Democratic primary, compared to 205,000 in 2016.
- North Carolina: Democratic turnout was down 12.0% in North Carolina’s six Pivot Counties. Statewide turnout increased by 15.7%.
- Tennessee: Democratic turnout was down 9.8% in Tennessee’s one Pivot County, Hardeman County. Statewide turnout, however, was up 37.9%, increasing from 372,000 voters in 2016 to 513,000 in 2020.
- Texas: Democratic turnout was down 6.5% in Texas’ only Pivot County, Jefferson County. Statewide voter turnout rose 54.3% from 1.4 million to 2.2 million.
- Vermont: Essex County, the one Pivot County in Vermont, had voter turnout decrease 11.7%. Statewide voter turnout increased 16.5%.
- Virginia: Democratic turnout was up 52.2% across Virginia’s five Pivot Counties. Statewide voter turnout increased 68.7% from 785,000 in 2016 to 1.3 million in 2020.[1]
Two other Super Tuesday states, Colorado and Maine, also include Pivot Counties. Final results for these states are not yet available for analysis.
Former Vice President Joe Biden won 29 out of the 34 Pivot Counties where figures are available. Biden, of course, was on the ballot as Obama’s running mate when those counties voted for the Democratic ticket.
Those figures reflect a remarkable turnaround from last month’s Iowa caucuses. In Iowa, Biden won just one of that state’s 31 Pivot Counties. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg carried 20 of those counties.[2] Buttigieg dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden just before the Super Tuesday voting.
|
