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But lurking beneath the surface was one positive, albeit long overdue, change in policy outlook. The government announced tougher sentences for the most violent offenders, including whole life sentences for murders committed with sadistic motives and longer sentences for grooming gang members. Sunak may be driven by a ‘tough on crime’ electoral strategy, nevertheless, measures like this will actually benefit the public.


Empirical research on violence and reoffending consistently reaffirms the ‘Iron Law of Crime’: that a tiny minority of habitual offenders commit the vast majority of violent crimes. Between 1973 and 2004, 63 per cent of violent crimes in Sweden were committed by one per cent of the population. A clear majority of convictions in the United States are handed down to those with criminal records. A follow up study of murderers released from prison in Sweden found that they were 155x as likely to commit murder than the general population. These are just a few examples.

The evidence that prison acts as a deterrent to crime or is particularly successful in rehabilitating violent criminals ranges from weak to mixed. But by containing violent criminals, we incapacitate them and ensure that they will not victimise any more innocent individuals.


By contrast, there is evidence that overcriminalisation – sending nonviolent offenders to jail for short periods of time – encourages further reoffending and hurts rehabilitation, while also costing taxpayers dearly. Therefore it is welcome that the government announced a new presumption that individuals sentenced for less than 12 months of jail time should be suspended and more use of home detention.


The criminal justice system still struggles from many faults, including drug prohibition, censorship of speech, and lack of adequate due process for defendants. But that shouldn’t stop us from supporting measures that incapacitate those whose violent acts warrant state intervention while minimising unnecessary prison sentences. At least, the King’s Speech was a step in the right direction.

Has Brexit Really Harmed UK Trade? Countering the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims


This week, the IEA published Has Brexit Really Harmed UK Trade? Countering the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims, a new paper by trade economist Catherine McBride, which argues that trade data does not support forecasts by the likes of the OBR, that Brexit would have a significant and negative impact on the UK’s trade with the EU.

  • Trade continued to grow between 2016 and the conclusion of the Brexit transition in 2020, indicating that Brexit uncertainty did not reduce UK-EU exchange.

  • UK goods exports rose by 13.5 per cent to EU countries and 14.3 per cent to non-EU countries between 2019 and 2022, before and after Brexit. This indicates no impact of Brexit on goods trade.

  • UK services exports rose by 14.8 per cent to EU countries and 22.1 per cent to non-EU countries over the same period. Varying demand levels for different products across countries, rather than any consistent Brexit impact, explains this finding.

  • UK trade patterns compared to other G7 countries have not changed since Brexit.

  • Business and Trade Secretary The Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP will today say “As today’s excellent IEA paper, written by the economist Catherine McBride, shows – contrary to some media reports and many pre-Brexit establishment voices, the data says Brexit has not had a major impact on UK–EU trade. UK trade with EU countries has broadly moved in line with UK trade with non-EU countries,” at the launch of International Trade Week.


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Tech Turmoil: Does the Digital Markets Bill threaten Britain’s economy?

Later this month, the IEA is hosting a panel to discuss the government’s Digital Markets and Competition Bill, building on the recent publication of Digital Overload: How the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill’s sweeping new powers threaten Britain’s economy.


Panellists

  • Matthew Lesh (Chair)

  • Bim Afolami (MP for Hitchen & Harpenden)

  • Stephen Hammond (MP for Wimbledon)

  • Matt Sinclair (Senior Director at the Computer & Communications Industry Association)

  • Verity Egerton-Doyle (Antitrust & Foreign Investment Counsel at Linklaters)


Date: Monday, 27th November

Time: 17.30 – 19.30

Location: 2 Lord North Street, SW1P 3LB

RSVP: Email [email protected] to request a space at the event

IEA at the SFL Regional Conference

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