From CEP's Eye on Extremism <[email protected]>
Subject Israel Fears War On The Horizon Against Hezbollah In The North
Date November 10, 2023 3:14 PM
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“In Kibbutz Eilon, an Israeli cooperative a mile south of Lebanon, the avocado
and banana farming families have been replaced by an infantry company
specialized in mortars and anti-tank support. The boom of howitzers punctuates
the soft air. There is a sense of impending conflict. Ever since Hamas
militants broke through the border fence in southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing
and kidnapping their way into the neighboring communities, life on Israel’s
northern border has taken a radical turn. Tens of thousands have been evacuated
and the army has moved in with tanks, artillery and troops. The fear is that
Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Islamist group, may be preparing to join the war —
or breach the boundary with Israel in a fresh attack. “We have to stay on this
border to send a message of deterrence,” said Major Ariel, 30, the commander of
the company in Eilon, who is on reserve duty. A physician and father of three
young daughters, he adds, “My life is on hold. I don’t know how long I will be
here but we can’t leave. October 7th was a wake-up call.” Over the past five
weeks, the world’s attention has been on Israel’s aerial and ground invasion of
Gaza designed to uproot Hamas’s infrastructure and destroy the group’s military
capability, with thousands of civilian casualties. But an equal — perhaps
bigger — concern for Israel’s military and the country is Hezbollah, which has
nearly 10 times the number of missiles as Hamas and a bigger, more professional
fighting force. US carrier battle fleets are in the Mediterranean to warn
Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran, against joining in.”











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Eye on Extremism



November 10, 2023



Bloomberg: Israel Fears War On The Horizon Against Hezbollah In The North
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“In Kibbutz Eilon, an Israeli cooperative a mile south of Lebanon, the avocado
and banana farming families have been replaced by an infantry company
specialized in mortars and anti-tank support. The boom of howitzers punctuates
the soft air. There is a sense of impending conflict. Ever since Hamas
militants broke through the border fence in southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing
and kidnapping their way into the neighboring communities, life on Israel’s
northern border has taken a radical turn. Tens of thousands have been evacuated
and the army has moved in with tanks, artillery and troops. The fear is that
Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Islamist group, may be preparing to join the war —
or breach the boundary with Israel in a fresh attack. “We have to stay on this
border to send a message of deterrence,” said Major Ariel, 30, the commander of
the company in Eilon, who is on reserve duty. A physician and father of three
young daughters, he adds, “My life is on hold. I don’t know how long I will be
here but we can’t leave. October 7th was a wake-up call.” Over the past five
weeks, the world’s attention has been on Israel’s aerial and ground invasion of
Gaza designed to uproot Hamas’s infrastructure and destroy the group’s military
capability, with thousands of civilian casualties. But an equal — perhaps
bigger — concern for Israel’s military and the country is Hezbollah, which has
nearly 10 times the number of missiles as Hamas and a bigger, more professional
fighting force. US carrier battle fleets are in the Mediterranean to warn
Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran, against joining in.”



Associated Press: Analysts Warn That Pakistan’s Anti-Migrant Crackdown Risks
Radicalizing Deported Afghans
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“The Pakistani government’s crackdown on undocumented migrants and mass
deportations to Afghanistan risk radicalizing those who have been forced out of
the country — often returning to deplorable conditions back home, analysts and
experts said Thursday. More than 250,000 Afghans have left Pakistan in recent
weeks as the government rounded up, arrested and kicked out foreign nationals
without papers. The drive mostly affects Afghans who make up the majority of
foreigners living in Pakistan, although authorities say that all who are in the
country illegally are targeted. Thousands are crossing the border every day
into Afghanistan with few or no belongings, enduring harsh conditions until
they are relocated within a country they left to seek a better life. The
mistreatment could lead to their radicalization by fueling hatred for Pakistan,
said Zahid Hussain, an analyst of militancy and author of several books,
including “Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam.” There should
have been an agreement between Islamabad and the Taliban-led government in
Kabul to avoid a backlash, added Hussain. Instead, Pakistan is detaining and
crowding Afghans in holding centers. “It creates hate ... and some of them can
be radicalized against Pakistan when they return home,” Hussain told The
Associated Press. The forced expulsions will further strain relations between
the two sides, and a new “wave of hate” arising from the deportations will be
the result of the government’s flawed policy, he added.”




Recent CEP Press Releases

* CEP Calls On U.S. Law Firms To Cease Work With Qatar Until Hamas Leadership
Is Remanded
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* New CEP Report Details Houthi Arms Procurement
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* CEP Calls For Global Freeze On The Qatari Investment Authority
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* Extremist Content Online: Antisemitic Conspiracy Video Praising Nazi
Germany Receives Over 1 Million Views On Twitter/X
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* CEP Calls For Additional Sanctions On Hamas Financiers Investment Portfolio
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CEP Mentions



KUOW: Suspicious Letters Targeting Pierce, King Elections Share Striking
Similarities
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"…Joshua Fisher-Birch, a research analyst with the Counter Extremism Project,
said people should not be quick to blame far-left groups for the letters just
because of the symbols included. In fact, he said the opposite could be true.
“While this threat includes anti-fascist and what appears to be a Satanist
symbol, as well as a version of an LGBTQ+ Pride flag, it is extremely likely
that the sender does not belong to any of those groups or communities, but, in
fact, holds far right or extreme right beliefs, and is seeking to blame
antifascists, Satanists, and LGBTQ+ people," Fisher-Birch said. "The message
that there should be ‘no more elections’ because the U.S. is ‘a communist
country’ does not fit with the symbols. Overall, this resembles previous hoaxes
by the far right in an attempt to blame the left.”



United States



Associated Press: Clashes Over Israel-Hamas War Shatter Students’ Sense Of
Safety On US College Campuses
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“As a Jewish student, Eden Roth always has felt safe and welcome at Tulane
University, where more than 40% of the students are Jewish. That has been
tested by the aftermath of last month’s Hamas incursion into Israel. Graffiti
appeared on the New Orleans campus with the message “from the river to the
sea,” a rallying cry for pro-Palestinian activists. Then came a clash between
dueling demonstrations, where a melee led to three arrests and left a Jewish
student with a broken nose. “I think that the shift of experience with Jews on
campus was extremely shocking,” said Roth, who was in Israel last summer for a
study-abroad program. “A lot of students come to Tulane because of the Jewish
population — feeling like they’re supported, like a majority rather than a
minority. And I think that’s definitely shifted.” Tulane isn’t alone. On other
campuses, long-simmering tensions are erupting in violence and shattering the
sense of safety that makes colleges hubs of free discourse. Students on both
sides are witnessing acts of hate, leaving many fearing for their safety even
as they walk to classrooms. Threats and clashes have sometimes come from
within, including at Cornell, where a student is accused of posting online
threats against Jewish students. A University of Massachusetts student was
arrested after allegedly punching a Jewish student and spitting on an Israeli
flag at a demonstration. At Stanford, an Arab Muslim student was hit by a car
in a case being investigated as a hate crime.”



Iran



Reuters: Iran Warns Expansion Of Gaza War 'Inevitable'; Officials Say Air
Strikes Hit Hospitals
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“Iran warned the scale of civilian suffering caused by Israel's war on Hamas
would inevitably lead to an expansion of the conflict, as officials in Gaza
reported Israeli air strikes on or near several hospitals in the Palestinian
enclave. The comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
could ramp up concerns over whether Washington's diplomatic efforts and
deployment of U.S. naval forces to the eastern Mediterranean will be able to
keep the conflict from further destabilising the Middle East. "Due to the
expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza's civilian residents,
expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable," Amir-Abdollahian told
his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Thursday
night. Iran's state-run Press TV reported the comments, made during a telephone
conversation, on Friday. Israel's bombardment and siege of Gaza over the past
month has created a humanitarian catastrophe with thousands seeking medical
treatment and shelter in the few hospitals still open, with those in the combat
zone operating in grave danger. "The Israeli occupation launched simultaneous
strikes on a number of hospitals during the past hours," Gaza Ministry of
Health spokesman Ashraf Al-Qidra told Al Jazeera television.”



Pakistan



Washington Post: Taliban Success Emboldens Pakistani Militants, And Deadly
Attacks Surge
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“The attackers descended from the steep mountains that tower over Pakistan’s
border with Afghanistan in the early morning hours. Gunfire echoed in the
valleys as Pakistani Taliban fighters stormed Pakistani military posts. By the
time the fighting stopped hours later, four soldiers and 12 militants were
dead. The Sept. 6 attack, described by officials in Pakistan as a cross-border
assault from Afghanistan, stunned a Pakistani leadership that had thought the
Pakistani Taliban to be virtually eliminated. But the victory of the Taliban in
Afghanistan two years ago has energized the Pakistani militant group. And while
the Afghan government denies allegations that it is providing havens to that
group, security analysts said the success of the Afghan Taliban has at a
minimum emboldened its Pakistani counterparts and encouraged them to fully
embrace the same playbook. The string of deadly blasts and shootings has led to
a moment of soul-searching in Pakistan. During the 20-year U.S.-led war in
Afghanistan, Pakistan’s leadership was frequently accused of harboring or
tolerating Afghan Taliban leaders and fighters. It now appears to find itself
on the reverse end of a very similar situation. The violence has horrified
Pakistanis, whose memories of the group’s first wave of insurgency more than a
decade ago are still vivid. The Pakistani Taliban, also known as
Tehrik-e-Taliban, or TTP, has been seeking to oust the country’s establishment
and put in place a conservative Islamic legal and political system, similar to
the one now in power in Afghanistan.”



Yemen



Associated Press: Internet Collapses In War-Torn Yemen Over ‘Maintenance’
After Houthi Attacks Targeting Israel And US
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“Internet access across the war-torn nation of Yemen collapsed Friday and
stayed down for hours, with officials later blaming unannounced “maintenance
work” for an outage that followed attacks by the country’s Houthi rebels on
both Israel and the U.S. The outage began early Friday and halted all traffic
at YemenNet, the country’s main provider for about 10 million users which is
now controlled by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis. Both NetBlocks, a group
tracking internet outages, and the internet services company CloudFlare
reported the outage. The two did not offer a cause for the outage. “Data shows
that the issue has impacted connectivity at a national level as well,”
CloudFlare said. Several hours later, some service was restored, though access
remained troubled. In a statement to the Houthi-controlled SABA state news
agency, Yemen’s Public Telecom Corp. blamed the outage on maintenance.
“Internet service will return after the completion of the maintenance work,”
the statement quoted an unidentified official as saying. An earlier outage
occurred in January 2022 when the Saudi-led coalition battling the Houthis in
Yemen bombed a telecommunications building in the Red City port city of
Hodeida. There was no immediate word of a similar attack.”



Middle East



Bloomberg: Israel Latest: Reports Of Strike On Gaza City’s Main Hospital
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“Dozens were killed and wounded from an Israeli strike on outpatient clinics
of Al-Shifa Medical complex in Gaza City, Palestine Authority radio reports.
The Israeli military has said that Hamas’s main military headquarters is
located underground near Al-Shifa and has told the hospital to evacuate
patients. Israel is providing “quick humanitarian windows” to allow people to
flee northern Gaza while the military fights Hamas militants, IDF spokesperson
Jonathan Conricus said. The IDF estimates between 50,000 and 100,000 people
have exited northern Gaza in the last few days and a total of 850,000-900,000
have fled the area, Conricus said. More than a million people lived in northern
Gaza at the outbreak of the war.”



Somalia



Associated Press: United Nations Suspends Pullout Of African Union Troops From
Somalia As Battles With Militants Rage
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“The United Nations Security Council on Thursday suspended for a period of
three months the pullout of African Union troop from Somalia, where fighting
rages with al-Qaida’s affiliate in East Africa. The decision follows a request
by the Horn of Africa nation for the forces to remain in the country to help in
the fight against the al-Shabab extremists. Somalia’s request was supported by
the African Union, all countries that contribute soldiers to the force and the
council, which agreed to delay the pullout of the 19,000-strong AU force for 90
days. Last year in April, the council unanimously approved a new African Union
Transition Mission in Somalia, known as ATMIS, to support the Somalis until
their forces take full responsibility for the country’s security at the end of
2024. ATMIS replaced the African Union Mission in Somalia, known as AMISOM,
which has been in the Horn of Africa nation for 15 years helping peacebuilding
in Somalia. However, the new force was to be withdrawn in phases, starting last
June, when 2,000 soldiers left Somalia and handed over six forward operating
bases to federal security forces. The second part of the pullout began in
September in line with the U.N. resolution which anticipates the withdrawal to
be completed by December 2024.”



France



Politico: French Court Annuls Ban Of Climate Movement Over ‘Eco-Terrorism’
Claims
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“France’s top administrative court Thursday annulled a government decision to
ban a climate activist movement after it repeatedly clashed with the police
during protests. Although the climate group "engaged in provocative and violent
acts against property," its disbanding was "not appropriate, necessary and
proportionate to the situation," the French Council of State found, declaring
the interior ministry's order to disband the organization null and void.
Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin in June ordered the leaderless climate group
Les Soulèvements de la Terre (“Uprisings of the earth”) to be disbanded
following violent clashes between campaigners and the police during protests
against the construction of large water reservoirs in western France. Darmanin
argued that the activists were inciting “eco-terrorism” across the country, and
18 people were arrested. Judges temporarily suspended the government’s
disbanding order in August, arguing it restricted the activists’ freedom of
assembly and that the interior ministry did not provide enough evidence to back
up its claim that the climate movement was inciting violence. Thursday’s ruling
upholds this initial decision. The activist group, created in 2021, counts more
than 150,000 supporters and is made up of close to 200 local groupings. It has
no clear leadership structure and isn’t officially registered as an association
or nonprofit organization — making it difficult to disband.”



Germany



The New York Times: Germany’s Stifling Of Pro-Palestinian Voices Pits
Historical Guilt Against Free Speech
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“Since fleeing Syria a decade ago, Wafa Mustafa has spoken out for political
prisoners at the United Nations, held vigils outside war crimes trials and
chanted in solidarity with Iranians protesting their authoritarian government.
Her activism won attention and praise in Germany, her adopted country — until
she took it to a protest in support of Palestinians. Last month, Ms. Mustafa
said the police approached her and a fellow activist in Berlin as they stood on
the sidelines of a protest, which the authorities had banned, against the
Israeli bombardment of Gaza. The two were not demonstrating, she said, but wore
the black and white Palestinian scarf known as the kaffiyeh. The police pushed
her friend to the ground, pinned him down for several minutes and arrested him.
She filmed the episode while demanding an explanation. Instead of getting an
answer, she, too, was briefly detained, accused of resisting the police. “What
I saw in their eyes is similar to what I saw in the eyes of Assad regime
forces,” Ms. Mustafa said, referring to Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator.
“I know it’s not the same, but that is how I felt,” she said. “When you look
into their eyes, there is nothing. You cannot talk with them, you cannot
discuss with them. You cannot ask them, ‘What are you doing?’””



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