Washington, D.C. (November 9, 2023) - A Center for Immigration Studies analysis of a newly released Census Bureau report shows that immigration is the main driver of U.S. population growth. However, while immigration will make the U.S. population larger, it does not significantly increase the working-age share (18 to 64) of the population. The report from the Census Bureau projects the future size and composition of the U.S.-born population under various assumptions, including different levels of immigration.
“The Census projections show that immigration can make the population much larger, but it cannot significantly increase the working-age share because immigrants grow old like everyone else, and they no longer have high fertility,” observed the Center’s Director of Research Steven Camarota. He added, “a modest level of immigration can stabilize the population for decades, while avoiding the implications for the environment and quality of life that come with the population growth immigration creates.”
About the new projections:
- Under the Bureau’s “low” immigration scenario, which is much lower than the current level, the U.S. population would rise from 333 million today to 343 million in 2060.
- Under “high” immigration scenario, the U.S. population reaches 397 million in 2060. The high scenario, which assumes 1.6 million annual net international migration — the difference between the number coming versus leaving — better reflects the current situation.
- The Bureau’s “main” or middle immigration scenario assumes migration is roughly half the high level. The main projection, which they emphasize, does not reflect the ongoing border crisis.
- The primary reason immigration has become the overwhelming driver of population growth is because the Bureau assumes birth rates will remain low and deaths rates will continue to be higher than in their prior projections released in 2017. The Bureau is implicitly assuming no set of policy interventions will stem the rise in deaths among younger people due to such factors as obesity, suicide, and overdose.
- Even as immigration grows the population, however, it increases the working-age (18 to 64) share of the population by only a small amount. With low immigration, 57.6 percent of the population will be working age in 2060, compared to 58.5 percent in the high immigration scenario.
- The Bureau’s new projections extend all the way to 2100. This super-long-term forecast generates the somewhat alarmist headline in the press release, “population projected to decline.” This decline is not supposed to happen until 2081. Even then, the decline is just 1 percent by 2100.
- Even the Bureau’s low immigration scenario shows the population will grow until 2043 and then decline by a mere 1.2% in the following 20 years. Even by 2100, the population would still be slightly larger than it was in 2014 under the low immigration scenario.
- A smaller population would certainly create challenges. However, a roughly stable population or a modest decline would also help reduce congestion, traffic, sprawl, and pollution, including admission of greenhouse gases, and it would make housing more affordable.
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